Hungry Africa: How to save traffic before it's too late?

 The UN warns that the war in Ukraine leads to shocks in the global economy and rising food and fuel prices. Africa will be particularly hard hit. And what damage will traffic arbitrage in these geos suffer? The Aff1 team analyzed the circumstances and gave some advice.

What happened: The war in Ukraine triggered a global food crisis. According to UN forecasts, countries in Africa and the Middle East face catastrophic famine. According to the IMF and the World Bank, the consequences threaten to become a "humanitarian catastrophe" in Africa.

Ukraine and the Russian Federation produce about 12% of high-calorie food products and 30% of world wheat exports. Around the world, especially in Africa, prices for basic everyday food go through the roof. The population suffers significantly due to the rise in prices and cannot even afford the necessary purchases.

Why it matters: Basic foods will become unaffordable for millions of people, writes Der Spiegel. If there is not enough money to survive, they save, for example, on household chemicals, cosmetics, dietary supplements, and other goods.

"We estimate that 81 million people in Africa are already food insecure,"

Michael Dunford, director of the World Food Program for East Africa, says.

And this, as you can imagine, is 81 million potential leads.

AFF1 opinion:

The downfall in purchasing power is a natural result of global crises. People try to spend less and cannot afford goods that are not essential for survival. For a media buyer, more effort needs to convince the user to buy the product. And for this, several relevant circumstances must be taken into account.

☝️ First, start with an objective assessment. As for GEO, Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Kenya, Ethiopia, Turkey, Iran, UAE, Yemen, Jordan, Israel, Qatar, Oman, Lebanon, Syria, and Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, and Chad) and the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti) will feel the food crisis more than others. As for verticals, there will be demand for those offers that people cannot and/or do not want to do without. That is, medicines, goods, games, and attempts to improve the financial situation of money on bets.

✌️ Secondly, the crisis reminds us not to "put all your eggs in one basket" — time to try new verticals and geos. Africa is losing purchasing power, but Asian regions and countries, on the contrary, are ready to order goods. Therefore, it is better to focus on them. Or on Latin America, which is not so dependent on foreign products.

🤟 Thirdly, Nutra will stay. Health will be more relevant than beauty. Soon, offers for meal replacements and solving problems with digestion will become more in demand and more profitable. People will still need drugs for chronic diseases. But the demand for weight loss products is likely to sag (although this also depends on the customer you are targeting). The low price will become the main attractor, and promotions and special offers ("free," "2 for the price of 1", "super price") will become even more attractive. People's desire to save money and look for cheap analogs is activated.

Now, it is crucial to think strategically. For example, if the coronavirus cost the global economy $2.7 trillion (source - Bloomberg), then the consequences of the war will be much more severe. If the war in Ukraine continues, hunger will intensify in sub-Saharan Africa. It will take a long time to recover, so the decisions you make now will stay with you for a long time.

And the war continues, so it is difficult for all industries to plan and predict something. You need to consider this in your work and be flexible and quickly adapt to changes. Learn to adapt as quickly as possible to a changing situation and not be attached to past successes. In unstable conditions, all processes are accelerated, so be prepared that an offer or bundle will burn out faster than usual.

Focus on what your audience needs right now. And that you need to keep earning despite the crisis. 👍