Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Polls Analysis

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race is a highly consequential election, as it could shift the ideological balance of the court, impacting key issues like abortion rights, redistricting, and election laws. Here’s what you should know about recent polls and the race:

Current Context (2023 Race Recap)

In April 2023, Wisconsin held a pivotal Supreme Court election to replace retiring conservative Justice Patience Roggensack.

The race was officially nonpartisan, but the candidates were aligned with ideological factions:

Janet Protasiewicz (Liberal-backed) vs. Dan Kelly (Conservative-backed).

Protasiewicz won by a significant margin (55% to 45%), flipping the court to a 4-3 liberal majority for the first time in 15 years.

Key Factors Influencing the Race

Abortion Rights – Protasiewicz strongly criticized Wisconsin’s 1849 abortion ban (reinstated after Roe v. Wade was overturned), while Kelly avoided taking a clear stance.

Gerrymandering – Protasiewicz signaled openness to revisiting Wisconsin’s GOP-favored legislative maps.

Election Laws – The court may rule on future election disputes, including 2024 presidential challenges.

Record Spending – The race became the most expensive judicial election in U.S. history, with over $45 million spent.

What Polls Showed Before the 2023 Election

Polls consistently showed Protasiewicz leading, often by mid-to-high single digits.

Marquette Law School polls (a trusted Wisconsin pollster) had her up 5-7 points in the final weeks.

Her lead was fueled by strong support in Milwaukee, Madison, and suburban areas.

Why This Matters for Future Races

The next Wisconsin Supreme Court election won’t be until 2025 (for Justice Ann Walsh Bradley’s seat).

If liberals retain control, the court could:

Strike down the 1849 abortion ban (already under review).

Redraw legislative maps to be less GOP-friendly.

Reject election-related lawsuits in 2024.

Bottom Line

The 2023 race was a major victory for Democrats and liberals, shifting Wisconsin’s highest court leftward. While polls accurately predicted Protasiewicz’s win, future races will depend on turnout, national political trends, and how the new majority rules on hot-button issues.

Would you like analysis on a specific aspect of the race or future implications?

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