NOAA Forecasts Active 2024 Hurricane Season

NOAA Predicts Active Hurricane Season Amid Rising Ocean Temperatures

Washington, D.C. – May 22, 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its 2024 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, forecasting an 'above-normal' level of activity due to record-high ocean temperatures and the influence of La Niña conditions.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipates 17 to 25 named storms, with 8 to 13 hurricanes and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). This exceeds the 30-year average of 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes per season.

Key Factors Driving the Forecast

Record Warm Atlantic Waters – Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are at historic highs, providing fuel for storm intensification.

La Niña Transition – The expected shift from El Niño to La Niña by peak hurricane season (August-October) will reduce wind shear, allowing storms to form more easily.

Climate Change Influence – Scientists warn that human-caused warming is increasing the likelihood of rapid intensification and extreme rainfall from hurricanes.

Preparedness Urged

'This season could be exceptionally dangerous,' said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. He urged coastal residents to prepare evacuation plans and supplies early. FEMA Director Deanne Criswell echoed the warning, emphasizing flood insurance and emergency kits.

The hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically in September. NOAA will deploy advanced satellites, hurricane hunter aircraft, and improved modeling to track storms.

Global Implications

The forecast follows a trend of increasingly destructive seasons, with 2023’s Hurricane Idalia and 2022’s Hurricane Ian causing billions in damage. Meanwhile, the Pacific also faces heightened risks, with Mexico already bracing for potential impacts.

For real-time updates, NOAA recommends the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) and wireless emergency alerts.

Sources: NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Climate.gov
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