Surprising NBA Draft Lottery Odds Facts

Here are some fried facts (fun, surprising, or little-known nuggets) about NBA Draft Lottery odds that might blow your mind:

1. The Worst Record Doesn’t Guarantee the Top Pick

Even the team with the worst record only has a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick (since 2019). Before 2019, it was 25%—but the NBA flattened the odds to discourage tanking.

2. The 'Flat' Lottery System (2019-Present)

The bottom three teams now all have the same odds (14%) for the No. 1 pick.

The 4th-worst team has a 12.5% chance, and it gradually decreases from there.

3. Biggest Lottery Jumps in History

1993 Magic: Jumped from 11th-worst (1.52% odds) to 1st (selected Chris Webber, traded for Penny Hardaway).

2008 Bulls: Went from 9th (1.7% odds) to 1st (Derrick Rose).

2014 Cavs: Just 1.7% odds from the 9th spot—won three No. 1 picks in four years (2011, 2013, 2014).

4. The 'Frozen Envelope' Conspiracy (1985)

The first-ever lottery had rumors that the NBA froze the Knicks’ envelope to ensure they got Patrick Ewing. David Stern (then-commissioner) always denied it.

5. The Process Trusted the Odds (And Lost)

The 76ers famously tanked for years, but in 2015, despite having the 2nd-worst record (19.9% odds), they fell to 3rd (and picked Jahlil Okafor).

In 2017, they had the 5th-worst odds (8.8%) but jumped to No. 1 (Markelle Fultz).

6. The Pelicans’ Lottery Luck

In 2019, the Pelicans had just a 6% chance at the No. 1 pick—but won it (Zion Williamson).

In 2022, they got the 8th pick via the Lakers (0.5% chance at No. 1!) but jumped to 4th.

7. The 'Bad Luck' Teams

The Sacramento Kings (now playoff contenders) had the worst lottery luck for years:

2022: 7th-worst record, fell to 4th.

2018: 7th-worst, fell to 2nd (but still got Marvin Bagley over Luka Dončić).

The Charlotte Hornets have never moved up in the lottery since 2005.

8. The 2025 Draft Could Be Wild

The 2025 draft is expected to be stacked (Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey, etc.), so teams might tank harder—but the flattened odds make it riskier.

Bonus: The 'Second Pick Curse'

Since 2000, the No. 2 pick has been cursed more than No. 1:

Busts: Darko Miličić (2003), Hasheem Thabeet (2009), Marvin Bagley (2018).

Injuries: Jay Williams (2002), Michael Beasley (2008).

Exceptions: Kevin Durant (2007), Ja Morant (2019).

Would you trust a 6% chance at a franchise player? The NBA Draft Lottery is pure chaos—and that’s why we love it. 🎲🏀

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