Orbital Complex

Express Analysis of U.S. Space Activity: Satellite Constellation and Orbital Launch Capabilities

Current Situation (February 2025):

• Number of satellites: The United States leads in the number of active satellites in orbit, largely thanks to SpaceX’s Starlink program. By the end of 2024, SpaceX had launched about 2,795 Starlink satellites, significantly strengthening both the commercial and military potential of the U.S.
• Rocket launches: In 2024, the United States carried out 154 space launches, accounting for 59.46% of the total worldwide launches. Of these, 134 were conducted by SpaceX. The Falcon 9 launch vehicle served as the primary workhorse, performing around 130 launches in 2024.

Forecast up to 2040:

• Growth of the satellite constellation: SpaceX plans to continue expanding the Starlink network, aiming for tens of thousands of satellites by 2030. This will provide global coverage of high-speed internet and enhance military communication capabilities.
• Increasing launch capabilities: With the development of the heavy-lift Starship rocket, capable of carrying large payloads and crews into orbit, the United States will greatly increase its capabilities for space exploration. In 2025, around 25 Starship launches are planned, which is a significant increase over 2024 figures.

The U.S. Position in the 21st-Century Space Race:

• Current dominance: The United States confidently leads the modern space race, outpacing its closest competitors in both the number of launches and the number of active satellites.
• Future prospects: If current trends continue, by 2040 the United States will further cement its leadership, possessing the largest and most technologically advanced satellite constellation, as well as cutting-edge means of putting cargo and people into orbit.

Competitors and Their Chances:

• China: Actively developing its space program, increasing the number of launches and creating its own satellite networks. However, as of 2024, China conducted 68 launches, significantly fewer than the U.S.
• Russia: Maintains a presence in space but with more modest indicators—17 launches in 2024.
• European Union and other countries: They carry out individual missions and develop space programs, but their scales are substantially smaller than American initiatives.

Conclusion:

Thanks to the active efforts of companies such as SpaceX, supported by government programs, the United States currently holds a leading position in the new space race. If it maintains the current pace of development and investments, by 2040 America will have the greatest capacity for launching cargo and people into orbit, as well as the most extensive satellite infrastructure for both commercial and defense needs.

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