How the Calculation Algorithm Works in Mystery Tracker
Our goal is to calculate the value of the Hero's stack in dollars in any tournament hand and then determine the change in its value after the hand. This will allow us to accurately calculate the All-in Adjusted EV.
🎯Mystery Pool Tracker
This program is similar to regular trackers like H2N4 and HoldemManager3, but the difference is that MPTracker includes functionality that allows you to calculate Hero All-in Adj EV$ in Mystery Battle Royale tournament hands:
- Correct hand processing from PokerCraft
- Built-in ICM calculator
- Built-in Equity calculator
Dividing the Tournament into Stages
We divide the tournament into two main stages:
- Rush Stage
- Final Table
Additionally, hands are categorized into two types:
- All-in/call occurred before the river
- No All-in/call occurred
If a player went all-in and received a call, it's necessary to calculate their equity. This is important for the correct calculation of All-in Adjusted EV.
If there was no all-in, Hero's EV will equal the actual result of the hand.
How is the Stack Value Determined?
The stack value consists of two parts of the prize pool:
- Payouts for ITM (In The Money)
- Payouts for Bounty (eliminating opponents)
Depending on the tournament stage, these calculations differ slightly.
Rush Stage
At this stage, prize pool distribution does not occur (except for hands where a player can be eliminated in 9th place).
Therefore, we simply calculate the Hero's stack value in EV$ at the beginning and end of the hand. To do this, we determine their share of both prize pools and compare the changes.
Final Table
At the final table, the situation changes. Now Hero has the opportunity to eliminate opponents and immediately receive Bounty.
Because of this, a third component is added to the stack value calculation — Bounty EV. It is considered only in those hands where Hero has a chance to win a Bounty.
In hands with All-in/call before the river, Hero's equity calculation is additionally used for the correct distribution of Bounty.
Three Key Components of EV Calculation
- ICM Value of Your Stack — Hero's stack share of the current ITM prize pool (more details on calculations - Wikipedia and GTOWizard).
- Bounty EV — Hero's share of the Bounty in a particular hand (considered if there's a chance to eliminate a player).
- Future Bounty EV — Hero's share of the current Bounty prize pool:
Future Bounty EV = Chip Share × Remaining Bounty Prizes
Examples of Hero's EV$ Calculations
Example 1. Rush Stage (without All-in)
Conditions:
- Buy-in $10
- 18 players
- Blinds 10/20, ante 20%
- All stacks are 1000 chips
- Hero on BB folds to a button open-raise
Change in Hero's stack value:
- Start of the hand: 1000 chips
- End of the hand: 976 chips
- ICM Value: $5 → $4.89
- Future Bounty EV: $4.12 → $4.02
- Bounty EV: not calculated (Bounty was not contested)
Hero's EV$:
$4.89 - $5 + $4.02 - $4.12 = -$0.21
Example 2. Rush Stage (All-in)
Conditions:
- Buy-in $10
- 12 players
- Blinds 40/80, ante 20%
- Effective stack 500 chips, Hero's stack 1500 chips
- Hero on BB calls button's All-in (500 chips)
- Hero: AA (82.22% EQ)
- Button: 22 (17.78% EQ)
Change in Hero's stack value:
- Start of the hand: 1500 chips
- End of the hand: 1905 chips (considering All-in Adjusted)
- ICM Value: $7.62 → $9.5
- Future Bounty EV: $6.18 → $7.85
- Bounty EV: not calculated (Bounty was not contested)
Hero's EV$:
$9.5 - $7.62 + $7.85 - $6.18 = +$3.55
Example 3. Final Table (All-in with Bounty)
Conditions:
- Buy-in $10
- 9 players
- Blinds 50/100, ante 20%
- Effective stack 500 chips, Hero's stack 1500 chips
- Hero on BB calls button's All-in (500 chips)
- Hero: AA (82.22% EQ)
- Button: 22 (17.78% EQ)
- Bounty value: $9.27 (excluding top-3 multipliers)
Change in Hero's stack value:
- Start of the hand: 1500 chips
- End of the hand: 1991 chips (considering All-in Adjusted)
- ICM Value: $8.49 → $11.03
- Future Bounty EV: $6.18 → $7.18
- Bounty EV: $0 → $7.62
Hero's EV$:
$11.03 - $8.49 + $7.18 - $6.18 + $7.62 - $0 = +$11.16
Summary
Applying this mathematical model allows us to calculate the change in Hero's stack value in any Mystery Battle Royale tournament hand. This also enables us to compute All-in Adjusted EV$ throughout the tournament — from the first hand to the last.
Additional Materials
- Bounty Models Explained: Solving Knockout Tournaments
- ICM Basics
- The Theory of Bounty Tournaments – Part 1: Prize Pool Fundamentals
- Independent Chip Model