ICOGURU Analytics Research: Who is the most profitable crypto expert? Chapter #1
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Since January 18, 400+ ICOs raised more than 14 billion USD. The question is: how many of these 400 projects will succeed in the nearest future? It will be great if just 50% of them will be listed on exchanges and just 10% (or maybe less) will be really successful with working product and network of supporters.
In such a situation, great importance is gained by experts who have a proven record of ratings The best way to stay profitable is to carefully analyze the expert’s opinion and DYOR. That is the reason why I decided to make this research and find out who is the most profitable expert up to date. There will be several articles, integrated into one series. It is the Part #1 where I analyzed and compared the results of the following experts: ICODROPS; OhHeyMatty and Crypto Briefing.
Further, I won’t talk a lot, just will provide you with the results of mine research and will make my conclusion at the end of it.
Goal: Find out which of the experts gained the highest returns. Determine, who rates projects the most accurately. Build your own investment strategy based on the project’s analysis and trend following.
ICODROPS
Russian team. One of the most influential team on the market.
Input data:
- Number of the projects analyzed: 180
- To do comparisons, I translated all ICODROPS rating into a single system: Very High = 5; High = 4; Medium = 3; Neutral = 2 and Low = 1
- All projects in the analysis have been graded by ICODROPS team.
I won’t talk about any particular project here. Only the result of my research. In case, you would like to see the raw data, check the table here.
Analyzed metrics:
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price depending on the grade of the project:
Very High = 86 days (the worst result)
High = 82 days
Medium = 66 days
Neutral = 42 days (the best result)
Low = 76 days - Average ROI (%) with respect to the ICODROPS valuation:
Have a look at the difference between ATH ROI of Very High and Low graded projects. The thing is that number of the Low graded projects is just 3 compared to 50 projects with “High+” rating. So, if to consider a correlation multiplier, it will be correct to say that Low projects gained more returns than “High+” ones.
3. Average ROI (%) in the context of project’s Hard Cap(s):
As you may see on the graph, the both ATH and Current ROI (%) are the best for projects with Hard Caps higher than $40M. It is a little bit confusing me, because, normally, there is a higher demand for the projects with lower Hard Caps due to the limited number of ICO rounds participants. But seems like in our case, projects, with $40M+ Hard Caps did the really great job and despite the market conditions, they currently stay profitable on average. To be as much objective, as possible I want you to know how many projects in each of the intervals:
$40M+ = 27; $20M-$39M = 62; $0-$19M = 84;
If we consider these numbers and use appropriate multipliers we’ll find out that lower capped projects gain more ROI (%), because for now, number of projects with Hard Cap below $20M is 4 times higher than those in the category of $40M+ hard cap.
4. A relationship between profitable and unprofitable ICOs considering two moments of time: Current state and State on the ATH Price time:
ICO market is very speculative at its current stage and there is an obvious disbalance between those, who really support and believe in projects and those, who are getting into ICOs only for quick cash.
5. Both, current and ATH time Average ROI (%) with respect to the token issuance platform:
ICODROPS results:
- Average ATH ROI (%): 1002.37%
- Average current ROI (%): 70.30%
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price: 72 days
- 39% of the analyzed projects are working on the creation of the blockchain itself and necessary services for it. They are the most profitable category in the ICODROPS list. AVG ATH ROI (%) of these projects is 1170.63% and Current AVG ROI (%) is 108.39%
OhHeyMatty
One of the most successful crypto experts. He has a significant community, consisting mostly of the English speaking members.
Input data:
- Analyzed time frame: Research includes all graded projects from the PAST ICO list in the OhHeyMatty spreadsheet
- Number of analyzed projects: 73
- To do comparisons, I translated all OhHeyMatty grades same system as before: <60% = 1; 61%-70% = 2; 71%-80% = 3; 81%-90% = 4; 91%-100% = 5
- All projects in the research have been graded by OhHeyMatty.
Analyzed metrics:
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price depending on the grade of the project:
<60% = N/A (no projects with such grade in the list)
61%-70% = 95 days (the worst result)
71%-80% = 67 days (the best result)
81%-90% = 75 days
90%+ = 86 days - Average ATH ROI with respect to the OhHeyMatty grades:
According to the graph, the highest returns were made by the projects with a grade in a range of 81%-90%. It is the same for both ATH ROI and Current ROI. Projects with grades lower than 80% have significantly lower returns and should be considered as unacceptable for investments.
3. Average ATH ROI (%) in the context of project’s Hard Cap(s):
As you may see, this metric is different here than ICODROPS result. Surprisingly, but projects with Hard Cap higher than $40M level gained much more returns than projects with lower Hard Cap.
4. Gainers/Losers ratio in terms of 2 timestamps: - ATH ROI Moment; - Current ROI Moment:
Here, the situation is pretty similar to the ICODROPS’ one. But, in long-term, OhHeyMatty has better results, because currently there are 28.76% profitable projects from the analyzed dataset.
5. Both, current and ATH time Average ROI (%) with respect to the token issuance platform:
Amongst analyzed projects, there were only 4 NEO-based projects and their ROI (%) is lower than usual on this platform. Ethereum-based projects performed much better in comparison to the ICODROPS results.
OhHeyMatty results:
- Average ATH ROI (%): 1268.36%
- Average current ROI (%): 144.84%
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price: 79 days
- 33% of the analyzed projects are working on the creation of the blockchain itself and it is the most frequently met category for OhHeyMatty. AVG ATH ROI (%) of these project is 1692.36% and Current AVG ROI (%) is 250.36%
Crypto Briefing
Input data:
- Analyzed time frame: Took all projects reviewed by Crypto Briefing from December 17 and up to the May 18
- Number of analyzed projects: 35
- To do comparisons, I translated all Crypto Briefing grades to the same system as previous two experts: 0%-19% = 1; 20%-39% = 2; 40%-59% = 3; 60%-79% = 4; 80%-99% = 5 (There were no 1 and 2 grades amongst observed projects)
- All projects in the research have been reviewed and graded by the Crypto Briefing team.
Analyzed metrics:
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price depending on the grade of the project:
40%-59% = 59 Days
60%-79% = 52 Days (the best result)
80%-99% = 78 Days (the worst result) - Average ROI with respect to the Crypto Briefing grades:
As you see, the highest returns have been received from the projects graded in a range of 60%-79%, but current ROI (%) is better for projects with 80%+ grades. Due to the significantly lower amount of the observed projects, ROI (%) looks lower in comparison to the previously observed experts.
3. Average ROI (%) in the context of project’s Hard Cap(s):
It was expected, that projects with lower Hard Cap will give higher returns. Of course, there are exceptions to this trend (look at this metric in the OhHeyMatty’s part) but mostly, due to the economic laws, the lower hard cap, the higher returns.
4. Gainers/Losers ratio in terms of 2 timestamps: - ATH ROI Moment; - Current ROI Moment.
5. Both, current and ATH time Average ROI (%) with respect to the token issuance platform:
There are about 40% of NEO-based projects in the Crypto Briefing list and their returns are much higher than Ethereum projects. So it will be more profitable to invest into NEO-based projects, recommended by the Crypto Briefing team.
Crypto Briefing results:
- Average ATH ROI (%): 439.60%
- Average current ROI (%): 68.20%
- Average time to reach All-Time-High (ATH) price: 66 days
- Almost 50% of the Crypto Briefing reviewed projects are developing the blockchain itself. AVG ATH ROI (%) of these projects is 412.53% and Current AVG ROI (%) is 88.47%
Leaderboard in terms of ROI (%):
- OhHeyMatty: AVG. ATH ROI (%) = 1268.36%; AVG. Current ROI (%) = 144.84%
- ICODROPS: AVG. ATH ROI (%) = 1002.37%; AVG. Current ROI (%) = 70.30%
- Crypto Briefing: AVG ATH ROI (%) = 439.60%; AVG Current ROI (%) = 68.20%
- More experts to be added soon…
Conclusion
After the analysis, we found out that the most profitable expert was OhHeyMatty. All metrics, analyzed are different from expert to expert, but they all show that any given token/coin perform better only in a short-term. According to the data, not more than 30% of the analyzed projects remain profitable at the current moment.
We have developed our own investment strategy, where we combined this information with our own analysis, which has shown good returns already.
It was just the 1st part of the research. In the next chapter, we will cover another 3 experts. If you don’t wanna miss the following parts, join our Telegram channel and gain an access to the most comprehensive ICO analytical content!
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