How Betting Point Spread Works

How Betting Point Spread Works




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How Betting Point Spread Works
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BettingUSA.com > Sports > Point Spread
What Is Point Spread Betting, And How Do Point Spread Bets Work?
Betting on a game in which one team is clearly in a league of its own wouldn’t be the most enthralling proposition if it wasn’t for the point spread.
Otherwise known as the great neutralizer or simply the handicap, point spreads theoretically level the playing field between two teams. Point spreads can transform a rather ho-hum blowout into a nail-biting affair. If one ever hears a sports fan screaming at the screen when the score is 31-14 with 5 seconds left, it probably means they have a point spread bet on the line.
But how does point spread betting work, and how can bettors get the best bang for their buck? We explore these questions and more below.
Points spreads are typically associated with high-scoring team sports, so bettors rarely find them for sports like soccer, tennis, and MMA.
There are the major sports for which sportsbooks offer point spread betting:
For the sports where they’re applicable, point spread betting is typically the first featured and are often associated with other top-line straight bets like the Total ( Over/Under ) and the Moneyline .
Here’s a look at the main NFL odds screen at BetMGM Sportsbook as an example:
Customers who use the BetMGM web interface will notice it posts a spread for the entire game and one for the first half. The latter is a derivative and allows bettors to place spread bets on portions of games, such as the first half as exemplified above, the second half, or the third quarter in a basketball game.
Customers will sometimes find derivatives published on the front page of a sports category, but often they’ll have to click or tap on an individual game and dig a bit to find them.
Two numbers denote point spreads. The top or left-hand side number represents how many points a team is getting or receiving, and the bottom or right-hand side number shows the odds.
So, what do they mean? Let’s address the top number first.
Imagine an NFL game where the oddsmakers price the Buffalo Bills at -3.5 vs. the Miami Dolphins at +3.5.
First, notice that the two numbers always mirror one another. That’s because point spreads are neutralizers and must cancel each other out.
The odds in this example provide several critical pieces of information to the bettor:
Therefore, the Bills must win by four points or more for a point spread bet on them to cash. Likewise, the Dolphins must either win by any amount or lose by fewer than three points to cover the spread.
If the line were instead Bills -3 instead of -3.5, and the Bills win by exactly a field goal, sportsbooks would consider any point spread bets on that game a draw and refund all outstanding tickets.
Sportsbooks typically price point spread wagers around the magical -110 number.
At -110 odds, bettors must wager $110 to win $100. Of course, bettors do not have to wager in $110 units – they can just as easily risk $55 to win $50, $220 to win $200, or even $35.58 to win $32.35.
The reason bettors don’t win even money on what’s supposed to be a 50-50 bet is that the book holds a percentage, also known as the vig. The vig on a standard -110 point spread betting is roughly 4.55%, which isn’t too high compared to other wager formats. For example, the house hold on futures bets can easily exceed 20%.
Sharp books, and there aren’t many in the US, may offer -108 or even -105 splits on point spreads. There may even be occasions when a book runs a “No Juice Spread” promo that centers the lines around +100, representing true odds. PointsBet does this each NFL season.
Point spreads aren’t always perfectly balanced, but they’re usually close. Bettors may see -115/-105, -120/+100, and odd betting lines like -112/-109 from time to time. Imbalanced odds function on the same premise: if a line is -115/-105, the bettor will be risking $110 to win $100 on the first time and $105 to win $100 on the second.
Sportsbooks tend to use variations of the point spread when pricing lower-scoring games such as hockey and baseball.
In hockey, oddsmakers set the puck line. The puck line functions the same as a point spread, except instead of attempting to level the field perfectly, the favorite almost always gives 1.5 goals (denoted as -1.5), and the underdog gets 1.5 goals (+1.5).
A 1.5 puck line may not sound like much, but it’s significant in a sport like hockey, with games often ending in scores such as 4-3, 3-2, 1-0, and so on. Even a humble 1.5-point puck line can flip the script so that moneyline favorites become puck line underdogs.
The same applies to baseball run lines. The favored team in an MLB game gives 1.5 runs to the underdog, who can lose by a single run and still win the contest for the purposes of run line wagers. Baseball scores tend to be higher than hockey, so the impact of 1.5 runs isn’t as dramatic, but there are still a fair number of instances where moneyline favorites become underdogs under the run line.
Of course, there is no rule that says puck and run lines must always be 1.5 – it’s just the most common case. Sportsbooks occasionally issue lines such as 2.5 as well.
Run and puck lines do not perfectly balance the two teams, so the odds don’t follow the -110 rule. Instead, they’ll look more like a traditional moneyline, with a clear favorite and underdog.
Sportsbooks usually publish point spreads front and center on the homepage or a sport’s category page. As a result, placing a point spread bet is a simple matter, whether betting from a desktop or mobile device.
Mobile betting apps and online sportsbooks automatically calculate the potential payouts of wagers in the slip. As such, bettors can quickly see how much they stand to win or risk on every bet before they place it.
The potential payout isn’t an indication of net profits but the total return, including the initial stake. For a -110 point spread, the indicated return will be just a hair under twice the amount wagered.
For the most part, calculating the juice , or VIG, on point spreads is straightforward because the line is the same on both sides. However, this isn’t always the case, so it’s worth exploring.
We mentioned previously that the VIG on a standard -110/-110 game is 4.55%. How did we derive that figure?
First, we take the implied probability of each team winning. For negative odds the formula is:
Negative odds: (-odds)/(-odds + 100)
Which works out to (-(-110))/(-(-110) + 100) = 110/(110 + 100) = 52.38%
Since both teams have the same odds, we simply multiply 52.38% by two and get 104.76%. The 4.76% is called the overround, which creates the profit margin for the book. If sports betting had villains, the overround would be the kingpin.
To get the actual juice, the formula is: 1 – (100/104.76) * 100 = 4.55%
Not all calculations are that simple. Point spreads aren’t always even, and run/puck lines often more closely resemble moneylines. What if a run line had odds of -200/+160? How would we calculate that?
It’s the same concept, except now we also need the formula to calculate implied probability using positive odds:
Favorite: (-(-200)/(-(-200) + 100) = 66.67%
Here, the probabilities add up to 105.13%, the overround is 5.13%, and the juice is 4.88%. That’s a bit high for our liking, but certainly not out of bounds.
ATS, or against the spread, is a metric of how a team is performing versus the spread. Since the spread is an equalizer, if a team has an above .500 record ATS in any given situation, they’ve been defying the expectations set by the book.
That means we should always place a point spread bet when that situation occurs again, right?
Wrong. In the lead-up to a game, the media loves to spin the ATS narrative into something meaningful. Fans will often hear things like “The Mets are 11-4 ATS against the Phillies on Saturdays” or “The Falcons have a 2-5 record ATS on Monday Night Football dating back to 2017.” This sort of situational historical data is virtually meaningless.
Even recent ATS records don’t carry much weight – they’re typically just the result of normal variance. Flip a coin ten times in a row, and it might come up heads eight or more times. Likewise, an NFL team might go 8-2 ATS in their last ten games, or they might go 2-8.
Bookmaking is dynamic. In the rare instance where the bookmaker, and subsequently the sharps, are wrong about a team, they will swiftly account for any errors in their models. Any meaningful trends will be baked into the line by the time the next game rolls around, rendering the ATS metric useless.
If a fan hears an analyst spouting about why everyone should bet on a team based on this-or-that ATS statistic, it’s probably time to change the channel.
If a sportsbook offers pregame point spread betting, it likely provides in-play or “live” spread bets on that same game.
Beyond the obvious, the main difference between pregame and in-play wagering is that in-play point spreads are subject to rapid movement. A single missed free throw will shift an NBA point spread slightly, while a fumble at the opposition’s 20-year line could have a tremendous effect on an NFL point spread, and so forth.
Sportsbooks tend to make greater errors when it comes to in-play wagers. The reason is that they often have days to hammer down their pregame line, but they must calculate and recalculate in-play betting odds constantly. And those calculations must happen quickly.
It’s due to this increased margin of error that in-play point spreads typically have a higher vig. It’s more common to see -115 or -118 than it is -110 on live spreads. Even so, there’s more value to be had betting in-play lines than betting an NFL spread 2 hours before kickoff.
It’s also useful to know how to calculate the difference in value between two slightly different spreads. Is +3 -110 better than +3.5 -125? These are more advanced calculations but are certainly worth keeping in mind as you continue along your sports betting journey.
Yes. Point spreads are one of the most fundamental types of wagers, and every state with legal online sports betting allows point spread betting.
However, not all markets are created equal. For instance, Montana has a single monopoly sports betting app, and the lines are terrible for bettors. At the other end of the spectrum, states like New Jersey and Arizona have numerous books and lenient regulations, granting players much more flexibility and better pricing.
Yes, but the real question is, “Do you want to?”
Remember, bettors pay a tax on every single sports wager they place. Parlay bets assess that tax multiple times, once on each leg of the parlay. On a 2-legger, assuming a standard market VIG on each leg of just over 4.5%, the VIG spikes to 9%. Increase that to 5-legs, and the juice is an astounding 20.8%. That’s greater than some of the worst bets anyone can make in a casino.
Sportsbook marketing teams love to promote parlays because they can offer what look like sweet deals to bettors without risking their hide. Sports betting promotions where customers can get an odds boost or insurance on a 5-leg parlay might reduce the juice from 20% to 10%, but it’ll rarely give bettors an edge. The book has its cake and eats it too.
If you find multiple +EV bets, then by all means, put them in a parlay. Just be warned that major sports betting market point spreads are extremely efficient and notoriously difficult to beat.
Robert Dellafave is an expert sports bettor, professional gambler, and advocate for the fair treatment of sports bettors.
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Ray Belkora June 1, 2022 at 05:01 PM
A point spread is a type of bet ultimately based on the margin of victory of a game or match. It is a function of sports betting used to make every matchup one of nearly (or exactly) equal probability by setting the margin of victory by the favored team.
Very rarely do sportsbooks see games as 50-50 coin flips, or as commonly referred to in bettors’ language: pick em’s . When the matchup is not one of equal probability, it would not be profitable for sportsbooks to take bets on the predicted winner (favorite) and the predicted loser (underdog) at the same price.
For example, during Week 14 of the 2021 NFL season, the 8-4 Tennessee Titans played the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars. If the sportsbooks had been taking bets on each side to win the game at the same exact odds, it would be a no-brainer for the bettor to place a wager on the vastly superior Titans. Common sense and analytics alike say the Titans will win that game well over half of the time, so it would be an extremely profitable bet if the teams were priced equally.
To even out the wagers the sportsbooks receive on the game, oddsmakers set a point spread favoring Tennessee to win by 8.5 points. The spread can and will vary slightly across different sportsbooks, but 8.5 was the general consensus. That means when a point spread wager on the Titans is placed, Tennessee would have to win the game by 9 points or more, i.e. to cover the 8.5 point spread. 
On the other hand, if a bet is placed on Jacksonville, the wager wins if the Jaguars were to win the game or lose by less than 8.5 points.
Tennessee ended up winning the game by 20 points (20-0), so point spread wagers on the Titans cashed, while bettors who took the Jaguars point spread lost.
When a point spread is listed on a sportsbook, it is accompanied by a “+” or a “-” sign. The “-” sign means that the team is the favorite , so Tennessee was listed as “-8.5.” Jacksonville, as the underdog , was listed at “+8.5.” 
The logical way to think about this format is to imagine that Tennessee is beginning the game with -8.5 points. If that were the case, according to the oddsmakers, the Titans and Jaguars would have a near-equal win probability.
While the chances of the bet hitting may be about equal in the eyes of the sportsbook, the general odds for a point spread are still -110 on both sides of the bet, meaning a bettor must risk $110 to win $100. That extra risk is called the vig , and is how sportsbooks ensure they make money.
However, sometimes the book doesn’t view the spread as exactly equal so will have the prices at something like -115/-105. Generally speaking, the two numbers add up to -220. If not, that probably means the book is taking more or less vig than is standard. As always, please use the OddsJam’s Odds pages to easily find which sportsbook has the best line and price for your bet.
Sportsbooks calculate point spreads using a combination of data-driven computer formulas and human input. Statistical power ratings (such as KenPom for college basketball) are taken into account, as are injuries, travel, matchup history, and of course home field advantage. For example, the home team generally sees a two to three point edge in the NFL . So if the Titans and Jaguars had been playing on a neutral field, the spread would have been about six. If it was at Jacksonville, it would have been about three points instead of the 8.5 at Tennessee. This can vary depending on the home team and circumstances. When the Seahawks were at their peak playing in front of the 12th man, bookmakers would give more of an advantage than in the past few years when the Chargers would play games in front of largely visiting fans in a soccer stadium.
Like all betting odds, point spreads can and will move based upon a number of different factors. For example, the Titans/Jaguars spread opened at Tennessee -9 but by kickoff on December 12th it was 8.5 at most books. This was a small line movement , but sometimes lines can move several points in one direction or the other due to action the books take in from bettors. If a substantial amount of money comes in on one side of the line (called a steam move), the sportsbooks will have to adjust the line to entice bettors to take the other side. Sportsbooks always want to have as close to equal amounts of money being bet on each side as possible so they are not at risk of taking a huge loss. Another factor that can change the line is sharp bettors . If one sharp is well known for winning consistently and bets a large sum on one side, that alone could compel the sportsbook to move the line. 
Since point spreads are volatile, the timing of a bet can be crucial. If a bettor sees an opening line that they predict will move significantly, they want to get in early before it shifts. Once it changes in the predicted direction, not only does that bettor have a positive EV bet, but it also opens up opportunities to middle the bet or place an arbitrage bet. 
A bettor should bet the point spread when they think that the team will cover the spread. If someone was thinking about betting on Tennessee but thought it would be a close one possession game, it would not be advisable to place a bet on the point spread. However, if the person thought the Titans would really dominate Jacksonville, betting the -8.5 point spread would make a lot more sense than taking a risk-heavy moneyline at a much steeper price.
When betting a point spread, it’s always a good idea to look around at various books to try and get the highest value bet possible. For example, DraftKings may have had the line at -8, while FanDuel was at -8.5 and Caesars at -9. A person interested in betting on the Titans would have DraftKings as their best option, since eight points is less for a favorite to cover than nine. 
Meanwhile, someone betting on Jacksonville should go to Caesars and take advantage of the nine point cushion on the underdog.
As always, be aware of the price of the wager as well. 
Baseball and hockey are a little bit different because of how few runs and goals are scored in each game, as opposed to football and basketball. Many games in these two sports end up being decided by just one run, or one goal. 
In baseball, the point spread becomes the “run line.” In the vast majority of Major League Baseball games, the run line is set at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. On a very rare occasion, perhaps where an ace like Jacob deGrom is starting against a struggling pitcher on a bad team, the run line can creep up to -2.5 but for the most part, MLB teams are evenly matched enough (and playing a fairly unpredictable sport like baseball) where the line will always be -1.5.
In the final game of the 2021 MLB season, Game 6 of the World Series, the Astros were -125 to win the game (moneyline) while the Braves were +115. The run line was Astros -1.5 at a +150 price, and Atlanta was +1.5 at -175.
Likewise in hockey, the “puck line” is set at -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog. Whenever betting the puck line, always remember the strong possibility of an empty net goal in the final couple minutes that could flip the outcome of the bet.
Since these two sports hav
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