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World intellectuals in St. Petersburg

19 October 2006 02:37

A kind of discussion forum has started in the Northern capital. Among the participants are the most erudite and professionally sought-after people - political scientists, economists, writers - from all over the world. Specialists from the world's leading scientific centers: Harvard, Yale and St. Petersburg State University. They came at the invitation of the agency Rosbalt. And St. Petersburg Vesti is the main information sponsor of the meeting. Dozens of discussions and roundtables have been staged. Guests will appreciate the trends in modern society and discuss the challenges of globalization. This, by the way, is the first such forum in St. Petersburg. As a result of intellectual meetings, a special collection will be released - it will be the main talking points of the reports.

[A Brief History of the Future

The famous French political scientist, economist and writer Jacques Attali presented his forecast of world development in a new book. What does the known anti-globalists see in the 21st century?

00:09, 29.01.2007 / Rosbalt, Breaking News]

The next guest of the project "World Intellectuals in St. Petersburg" will be the French political scientist, economist and writer Jacques Attali. Attali is an international expert, and since 1981 he has been an adviser to President Francois Mitterrand, and in 1991-1993 he headed the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. A member of the Bilderberg Club.

As soon as you hear "Heil" somewhere, know that there we are waiting for us, where we will begin our spiritual revival ...

A Brief History of the Future by Jacques Attali

For anti-globalists and radicals around the world, his name serves as a red rag. Liberal and globalist, the author of the concept of the "new world order", a supporter of geoeconomic approach in geopolitics, he defines modernity as the advent of the "era of money", the domination of liberal-democratic values and market relations, based not only on financial capital, but also on information technology.

J. Attali is the author of "Shums" (1977), "Three Worlds" (1981), "The Story of Time" (1982), "The Influential Man Sigmunt G. Warburg (1902-1982) (1985), "Literally and figuratively" (1988) "1492," "Anti-Economy" (1975), "On the threshold of the new millennium" (in the original language - "Horizon Lines") (1992).

In 2006, his new work, A Brief History of the Future, was published.

Attali himself claims that he worked on a new book, guided by two tasks. First, he sought to show the most likely image of the future. Secondly, the book itself is a tool for Attali to design the future, designed to prevent the most dangerous trends in world development and to help realize the beautiful (for whom?) potential.

Today, Attali argues, it is decided what the world will be like in 2050, and is preparing what it will be in 2100. And it depends on our actions today whether our children and grandchildren will live in a world fit for life, or will find themselves in hell and curse us. To leave them with a habitable planet, we need to take the trouble to think about the future, to understand where it comes from, and how to influence it. Attali thinks it's possible.

The logic of history: nine hearts of market democracy

Attali is convinced that history stubbornly flows in a single direction, so that no force, even a very powerful one, has so far been able to change it seriously: from century to century mankind puts the primacy of individual freedom over all other values. This is done through a systematic refusal to submit to all forms of enslavement; technological advances to reduce human-required efforts; and through the liberalization of mores, political systems, art and ideologies. In other words, the human history of Attali is the story of the emergence of a person as a subject of law, who is allowed to ponder and determine his destiny; free from any restrictions, unless it affects the rights of others.

Such evolution, still reserved for the richest, constantly led to the fact that the power was under threat, as well as to the fact that new states were emerging. In particular, in order to make this primacy of personality appear over society, peoples have progressively developed different systems for the distribution of rare benefits. For a very long time they left this burden only to generals, clergymen and monarchs, who were at the head of kingdoms and empires. Then a new ruling class, more numerous and more mobile - the class of merchants - invented two new revolutionary mechanisms of wealth division: the market and democracy. Emerging about thirty centuries ago, they are gradually becoming more necessary, peacefully shaping a large part of the world's trends and are a prerequisite for the future.

Despite increasing resistance, in increasingly large areas the market gradually transformed the essence of many things (food, clothing, leisure, housing, transport, communication), which were initially given free (voluntarily or forcibly) into a trade facility. Then he transformed them into industrial products, produced serially, into genuine means of individual autonomy.

Gradually, trade freedom led to the birth of political freedom: first for the minority, then, at least formally, for many, in increasingly vast territories. Almost everywhere it replaced military and religious power. In general, the dictatorship allowed the birth of the market that gave birth to democracy. Thus, the first market democracies appeared, starting in the 12th century.

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Their geographical space was gradually expanding. The center of power over the totality of these market democracies gradually shifted to the West: it moved to the 12th century from the Middle East in the Mediterranean, then to the North Sea, then to the Atlantic Ocean and, finally, today to the Pacific. This was the change of nine hearts: Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amsterdam, London, Boston, New York and, finally, Los Angeles. Here Attali, known as a liberal and adept of globalism, expresses a completely illiberal idea: gradually competition leads to the concentration of power over markets and democracy (presumably equally accessible to all) in the hands of new mobile elites, masters of capital and knowledge. As a result, new forms of inequality are being formed and deepened. If this millennial history continues for another half a century, the market and democracy will spread everywhere. Growth will accelerate, living standards will rise, dictatorship will disappear from countries where it still reigns. But at the same time, fragility and treachery will become normal, water and energy will become more scarce, the climate will be threatened; inequality and manipulation will worsen; conflicts will multiply, large movements of the population will begin.

Hyperimperia, hyperconflict, hyper-democracy

The current situation Attali understands simply: the forces of the market have taken the planet into their own hands. Most of the recent historical upheavals are due to the "triumphal march of money", an expression of global all-conquering individualism. If this evolution reaches its climax, money will end everything that can prevent them, including states (even the U.S. will have no chance to survive), which they gradually destroy. By becoming the only law in the world, the market will shape what Attali calls a hyper-empire, vast and planetary, creating trade wealth and new alienation, vast fortunes and appalling poverty. Nature there will be barbarically exploited; everything will be private, including the army, police and justice. Human existence will become an artifact, the subject of mass demand, whose consumers have also become artifacts. Then the disarmed, useless man for his own creatures will disappear. But the abandonment of this future and the forcible interruption of globalization, according to Attali, will only plunge humanity into the abyss of regressive barbarism and devastating battles with weapons, which today is unthinkable. (Well, of course, the globalizers prudently dug a deep rut, so that no "cart" could not choose on an alternative path favor_in_all.

Attali calls this war a hyper-conflict in which states, religious groups, terrorist organizations and lone bandits will confront each other. It can lead to the destruction of humanity. Finally, if it is possible to contain mondialization/globalization without reversing it; If the market is limited but not destroyed. If democracy becomes planetary, remaining completely specific; if the domination of one empire over the world ceases, a new infinity of freedom, responsibility, dignity, acceleration, respect for others - hyper-democracy - will be opened. It will lead to the establishment of a democratic world government and the establishment of a network of local and regional institutions of power. It will enable everyone, thanks to employment, provided with the fabulous potential of the technologies of the future, to move towards abundance, to adequately use the benefits of the market imagination, to preserve freedom of expression, to leave future generations a better protected environment; thanks to all the prudence of the world to bring to light new ways of living together and creativity.

(The tale of a white bull, not otherwise)

The story of the next fifty years Attali describes in the logic of the transition from hyperimpertrial to hyper-democracy through hyperconfliction: by 2035 will come the end of the domination of the American empire, it is predictable, as well as the end of all its predecessors; then three waves of the future flood one after another: hyperimperation, hyperconflict, and hyper-democracy. Two waves a priori deadly, the third a priori impossible. Nevertheless, Attali believes in the victory around 2060 of hyper-democracy, the highest form of the organization of mankind, the highest expression of freedom - the engine of history.

Scenario of the Future: Robots and Global War

Attali's futurological prognosis is most reminiscent of a script for a science fiction film in the spirit of cyberpunk. By 2035, by the end of a very long battle and in the middle of a severe environmental crisis, the United States - still the dominant empire - will be defeated by the globalization (mondialyization) of markets, especially financial, and the power of concerns, especially insurance. Exhausted financially and politically, like all other empires before them, the U.S. will cease to lead the world. They will remain the world's leading power; they will not be replaced by either another empire or another dominant nation, but the world will temporarily become a polycentric, led by a dozen regional powers.

It all starts with a demographic shock. In 2050 (unless there is any powerful catastrophe) the earth will be inhabited by 9.5 billion human beings. Life expectancy in the richest countries will approach the century; the birth rate will stop next door to the reproductive threshold. As a result, humanity will age. The population of China will increase by 360 million, India by 600 million, Nigeria and Bangladesh by 100 million, by 80 million by the United States, by 9 million by France, by 10 million by Germany and possibly by 30 million by Russia. Two thirds of the world's population will live in cities whose populations will double, just as the amount of energy and agricultural output consumed should double. The number of people of working age will also double; more than two thirds of children born during these years will live in the 20 poorest countries.

At the same time (around 2050) the market, boundless in nature, will prevail over democracy, institutionally limited by any territory. States will weaken; new nanotechnology will reduce energy consumption and transform the last areas that remain collective: health, education, security and sovereignty; there will be new basic consumer objects, which Attali calls "surveilleurs" that allow to measure and control compliance: each will become its own doctor, teacher, controller. The economy will become increasingly economical in the consumption of energy and water. Self-surveillance will become the highest form of freedom and fear of non-compliance will become its limit. Transparency will be mandatory; anyone who wants to hide information about their property, manners, health status or level of education will be a priori suspicious. Increasing life expectancy will give power to the oldest, who decide to take it upon themselves. States will give way to businesses and cities.

Hypercoskins (hypernomades) will lead an open empire without soil, without a center - hyperimperation. No one will be more loyal to anyone but himself; Businesses will no longer have any nationality; The poor will create a market among others; laws will be replaced by contracts, justice by arbitration, by the police by mercenaries. New differences will be established: while the sedentary have fun with the help of spectacles and sporting events, the huge masses of nomads of poverty - infrared - will overcome the borders in search of a livelihood. Insurance companies that have become regulators of the world will fix the rules that states, enterprises and individual structures will have to obey. Resources will become increasingly rare, robots are becoming more numerous. Time, even the most personal, will be almost completely absorbed by the use of goods. On the same day, everyone will be able to repair themselves, then produce prostheses from himself, and finally be cloned. A person will become an artifact that consumes other artifacts; to a cannibal eating cannibal objects; sacrificing nomadic evils.

Naturally, all these changes cannot happen without terrible shocks. Just before the disappearance of the American Empire, the climate will become almost unbearable, the population will fight for the territories. Permanent wars will begin, as nations, pirates, mercenaries, mafias, religious movements will have access to new weapons and tools of surveillance, intimidation and retribution, will be able to use the opportunities of electronics, genetics, nanotechnology. Moreover, the rise of the hyper empire will lead everyone to become the enemy/rival of all. They will fight for oil, for water, for saving territory, for leaving it, to establish one faith, to overthrow another, to destroy the West, to assert its values. Military dictatorships backed by the army and police will come to power. The most disastrous of all wars will break out - hyperconflict.

By 2060 or earlier (unless, of course, humanity disappears under the flow of bombs) humanity will no longer be able to tolerate the American Empire, hyperimperation, or hyperconflict. New forces, altruistic and universalist (oga, oga!), which are already in force today, will come to power on a global scale in the form of an empire of necessity - the need for environmental, ethical, economic, cultural and political.

(Yes, the new ruler of the world will give a lot of promises, and all will bow to him.

As a result of their rebellion, hyper-democracy is formed. (Hyper, hyper - but what else!) Burn Shura, more napalm!

What about Russia sir?

Russia also found a place in Attali's apocalyptic constructions. However, parts of the book, devoted to the analysis of the Russian future, are written in rather restrained tones, far from the cyberpunk rampage. Russia

Jacques Attali is one of the so-called "Eleven" - eleven leading countries (except the United States and the EU). In addition to Russia, they include Japan, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico. (Here's the move ! Bomb 💥 We even recognize the author of the material)

According to Attali, Russia could gain a better demographic balance and use part of the oil revenues to properly organize its development. Becoming the first producer of black gold in 2006, ahead of Saudi Arabia (with reserves of 100 billion barrels) and the first producer of titanium, its GDP should surpass the GDP of Germany, England and France by 2025, and then it will become the sixth economy in the world. Thanks to the foreign exchange reserves accumulated from the sale of oil, Russia will receive funds to buy industrial technologies of Europe and the West, which will cost it less than the modernization of its own enterprises. Oil will continue to provide half of its tax revenues. (That is, according to the plans of this dude, Russia should move from Rublevo - the Assumption Highway and monastery to California and take Alaska back, the puzzle 🧩 formed).

Like others in Eleven, Russia will develop urban infrastructure, legal frameworks that protect private and intellectual property, a modern banking system, and especially improve its health care system: life expectancy (which fell to 59 years for men in 2006 and 72 years for women) will start to rise again; population will stabilize at 120 million in 2025 (compared to 142 million today). Russia will also face new threats: Islamic - from the south, Chinese - from the east. (What a horror 🤦 ♀️)

Attali's book also finds a deepening of the talking points he has outlined and developed in his previous essays and novels. Recall that long before it became widely talked about, Attali predicted the geopolitical movement of the world to the Pacific Ocean, the financial instability of capitalism, climate change, the emergence of a virtual economy, the fragility of communism, the threat of terrorism, the emergence of "new nomads", the universal distribution of mobile phones, personal computers and the Internet, the leading role of art and, in particular, music in the creation of world diversity. Many of his predictions have come true.