Dispatch for August 26

Dispatch for August 26

Conflict Intelligence Team

The Ukrainian Counteroffensive:

  • Natalia Humeniuk, the head of the press center of the Operational Command "South", announced the start of offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in many directions.
  • The Ukrainian Kakhovka Task Force released a video stating that Ukrainian troops broke through the first line of defense of the pro-Russian forces in the Kherson region and are firing with all available types of weapons. Since the original source is not specified, and the faces of the soldiers are covered, we assume that this may be a part of a psychological operation.


  • CNN, citing its sources, reports that the Ukrainian forces took back four villages [from Russian occupation] at the Kherson direction - Pravdyne, Tomyna Balka, Nova Dmytrivka, and Arkhanhelske. The operation began on Monday night with a massive shelling of Russian positions on the right bank of the Dnipro. The main direction of the Ukrainian attack was Pravdyne, then they hit the “LDNR” infantry, turning them, and later Russian paratroopers, to flight.


  • Roman Saponkov, a pro-Russian war correspondent, claims the Ukrainian forces conducted an attack near Davydiv Brid, and also liberated Sukhyi Stavok. Commenting on this attack direction at the Inhulets bridgehead, Roman Saponkov says that the separatists and mobilized soldiers from the “LDNR” have met the “Syrian standard for flight” (referring to the Syrian army, which turned to flight each time an enemy launched an attack) since yesterday morning, while the Russian forces, on the contrary, threw themselves into the fray enthusiastically.
  • Pro-Russian Telegram channels report an intensification in combat operations along the Mykolaiv axis, particularly in the vicinity of Posad-Pokrovske.
  • Based on FIRMS (Fire Information for Resource Management System) satellite imagery of fires, fighting is currently underway along three axes: near the Inhulets bridgehead, in the vicinity of Snihurivka, and directly along the Kherson line. 


Kherson
Kahovka


  • Former Russian commander and military blogger Igor Strelkov (Girkin) writes that HIMARS were used to hit infantry positions for the first time. Previously, they were used exclusively to strike targets in the rear: ammunition depots, command and control centers, and now targets on the front line.
  • An anti-aircraft radar complex near Sevastopol is on fire.


  • There are reports of explosions in the occupied city of Berdiansk in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • During the night of August 29-30 explosions were heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, and incoming strikes were reported. Belgorod Telegram channels posted photographs taken near the railroad station where lines of people had formed.   


Russian forces struck the Inhulsky bridge in Mykolaiv. Pro-Russian Telegram channels have been waiting for this moment for a long time. 


The Governor of the Mykolaiv Region, Vitaly Kim, reports about the shelling of Mykolaiv on August 29 with 16 S-300 rockets. At this moment, we have information about two killed and 24 injured.


On September 3, the remainder of the 3d Army Corps will be deployed from Mulino. Our last dispatch incorrectly quoted the Ukrainian analyst Konstantin Mashovets: 15 678 is the staff requirement for the army corps, in this case the recruitment amounts to 11.5-12 thousand, which is much closer to our estimates.


The Washington Post reports that in mid-August, a Russian plane flew to Iran to pick up Shahed-129, Shahed-191 and Mohajer-6 attack and reconnaissance drones. During the first tests, the Russians discovered many problems with these drones and remained dissatisfied. One of our sources provided information indirectly confirming the receipt of the drones by the Russian side.


One of the pro-Russian Telegram channels  posted a video of the aftermath of a recent HIMARS MLRS strike on the bridge near Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. A destroyed military KAMAZ truck and torn bodies of soldiers are visible in the video.


A Ukrainian trend of talking to their past selves - children who don’t yet know about the war, appeared on social networks.

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