Dispatch for August 26-28

Chaplyne attack details

Over the weekend, pro-Russian Telegram channels posted obituaries of two Ukrainian soldiers, who had been serving under military contracts for several years, and who were killed in the strike on the Chaplyne train station. Thus, the pro-Russian side keeps claiming that the attack  had a legitimate military target. We continue to maintain the position that this strike was a war crime on the part of Russia, since the attack on the station was carried out during daytime and resulted in civilian casualties.

The 3d Army Corps is on the move to the Rostov Region, closer to the border. 

Photos show freight trains with T-80BV and T-90M tanks. Notably, the corps is armed with both the latest equipment, such as T-90M tanks and BMP-3 armored personnel carriers, and outdated early variants of Grad MLRS (mounted on Ural-375D chassis) and GAZ-66.

Ukrainian analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets published data, apparently obtained from the Ukrainian intelligence agencies, indicating that a little more than 15,000 people should be recruited into the 3rd Army Corps.

According to our estimates, these forces, even taking into account their staffing issues, will be sufficient for a local, limited breakthrough (on the scale of capturing Lysychansk). In addition, it is not yet clear to which section of the front line these forces will be deployed.

Over the weekend, a strange publication appeared in an Austrian tabloid. Allegedly, Natalia Vovk (whom Russia accuses of killing Daria Dugina) was found murdered in Austria. At the same time, a photograph of a Muscovite killed in 2020 was published. 

Today there was another video from the Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), which showed:

• Natalia Vovk's accomplice Bohdan Tsyganenko, who arrived in Russia via Estonia on July 30 and left the day before the assasination of Daria Dugina;

• a video showing a Mini Cooper with DNR license plates entering a garage cooperative, and after some time leaving with license plates of Kazakhstan;

• Natalya's accomplice receiving new plates at a CDEK delivery service pick-up point;

• Video footage (of very low quality) allegedly of Natalia Vovk walking in the parking lot near the festival where Dugina was. 

These videos prove quite convincingly that Natalia Vovk and Bogdan Tsyganenko indeed acted together, but do not in any way prove that they were actually involved in Daria Dugina’s murder.

UAF struck at the Dariivka bridge. We have not yet seen a photo of the aftermath, but, according to the Operational Command South, the bridge is not anymore operable.

According to the Kherson journalist Kostiantin Rudenko, the situation with the Antonivskyi bridge has turned into a game of “you hit - we patch up”.

Ukrainian forces fired a HIMARS multiple launch rocket system at a hotel in Stakhanov (Kadiivka). According to residents, there was a military location there, and no civilian casualties.

Pro-Russian military correspondents published a video of the Special Forces of the "Center" Group of Troops operating in the direction of Ivano-Darivka. So at least part of this group remained at their previous axis (they were operating in Lysychansk).

The Wagner Group has published a video from Kodema with the comment: "Kodema is almost taken, just a little bit left, then we will take Bakhmut".

On August 28, Russian forces struck the Sarnenskyi district of the Rivne region. According to the head of the regional military administration, Vitaliy Koval, the strike hit military infrastructure, with no casualties.

The "Belarusian Hajun" project reported on August 28 that rockets were launched at Ukraine from the side of Belarus by fighter jets that came from Russia. 

As we previously said, it is highly probable that the southern axes of advance saw fewer war crimes. However that does not mean none at all were committed. Pavlenko spouses were found murdered in the village of Archangelske, in the occupied Kherson region.

By the 1st of October, all bomb shelters in Lviv will be equipped with portable wood heaters. The city’s mayor Andrij Sadovyj said the heaters will be installed in case of emergency power losses.

The Head of Ukraine’s oil and natural gas company Naftogaz, Yurij Vitrenko, called on Ukrainians to stock up on blankets and warm clothes. This year's heating season will begin later than usual and will end sooner. Ambient room temperature is expected to dip to around 17-18 degrees Celsius.

There was an obituary published for a Russian convict Evgenij Eryomenko, who was killed in Ukraine. He was convicted in 2020 for the crime of extortion and sentenced to 1o years in a high security facility.

Over 900 servicemen of the 2nd Army Corps of the People’s Militia of LPR received Russian state awards: Orders of Courage and medals “For Courage”. According to one of our theories, the increase in the size of the Russian army, for which Putin signed a decree last week, will be achieved by integrating the “armies” of LPR/DPR.

On July 29th, the Security Service of Ukraine named another four servicemen of the 64th separate motorized brigade from Khabarovsk, who, according to the Ukrainian security services, were involved in torture of civilians in the town of Bucha in the Kyiv region. One of them, Pyotr Nikolaevich Danilov, contacted “Radio Svoboda” (Russian language RFE/RL service). He said that he was fired from the unit on criminal charges a few years ago, and provided documents to support his claim.