Bet On The Underdog Spread
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Bet On The Underdog Spread
Your Guide to the Safest Betting Sites
Public Opinion Has An Effect On The Betting Odds
Underdog Betting Is Not As Risky As You Think
Sports Teams Are Regularly Undervalued
Line Shopping Forces You To Bet Dogs
Baseball Is A Game of Short-Term Luck
MLB Underdogs Have A Much Higher Breakeven Rate
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Home » Sports Betting Strategy » How To Bet On Underdogs
Betting on underdogs is one of the first things you must do if you want to be a successful sports bettor. The best sports bettors all have one thing in common: they bet on a lot of underdogs. What do we mean when we say underdog? Well, an underdog is the opposite or opposing side of the favorite. It is the team that is plus odds (+) or getting points on the spread. There is always a favorite and an underdog when betting on sports, regardless of the game or competition.
Everyone loves an underdog story. The QB that was out of the league but came back to lead his team to a Super Bowl. The No. 16 seed up that takes down a No. 1 seed in the March Madness. It turns out, most people don’t love betting on underdogs. When it comes to betting on sports, people gravitate towards a different way of thinking. They still love an underdog story but don’t want to wager on them. They want more of a “sure thing.”
For reasons we will go over in this article, that’s one of the worst ways to think about wagering sports. It doesn’t mean you bet on underdogs at every opportunity but learning how to bet on underdogs and developing a strategy for underdogs betting is a must as a sports bettor.
The main reason to bet on underdogs in sports is that most people don’t. And, most people lose at sports betting. In most cases, the public is overwhelming wagering on favorites, which moves the odds or shades the line. Sharp bettors are the ones who move odds in betting markets (at least in most cases), but the public still has some influence, especially in sports where they bet significant amounts, such as NFL football or European Soccer.
The oddsmakers don’t take the public’s opinion seriously when it comes to setting odds and reacting to their betting action. But, one thing that is vital to a sportsbook or gambling site is being sure they’re not overexposed. That means if they have too much money on the side of the market, and if the result went the wrong way, it could lead to massive losses. There are many cases where you will find betting sites with what is called “off-market” odds because they are catering to public wagering action.
For some reason, many people associate betting on underdogs comes with plenty of risk. Yes, you’re wagering on a team that isn’t going to win most of the time, but that’s not what sports betting is about. At least, in many cases. Remember, when you bet on an NFL point spread or an NBA basketball side, the team you’re betting on does not need to win, but only cover the spread. Likewise, if you bet an underdog on a +200-money line, you just need to win the bet one out of three times to breakeven. If you do the math, underdog bets aren’t so scary after all.
The sports teams that already have great records or impressive rosters in the previous season are already installed as favorites in betting markets. Teams that have improved or that are taking a step forward are not always valued correctly by the oddsmakers and betting public, at least not right away. Matchups may also indicate an advantage that may not be obvious or clear to others. Basically, if you’re wagering underdogs, you have a far better chance of being ahead of the game when it comes to market adjustments.
NFL underdogs betting is one of the best bet opportunities since football is the most popular sports. If you’re reading this, you’re most likely an NFL bettor. Well, this advice is going to help. There are a few significant underdog football wagering tips when it comes to betting NFL football that will no doubt increase your bottom-line profits as a sports enthusiast.
It’s rare that the public influences betting odds movement, but this is precisely what happens in NFL football. It’s the public’s most wagered sport and their bets do need to be accounted for because of how much they bet, especially on high profile games. The public is influencing wagering odds when it comes to betting on the NFL. They are wagering on favorites and not underdogs, making the NFL one of the best sports to bet underdogs.
Building on our underdog betting tip, if you line shop correctly, this is where you will find value in the odds. Many recreational sportsbooks will shade their lines against public wagering action, and these almost always force you to bet underdogs. So, if you’re betting line shopping and trying to find inefficiencies in the market, then you will naturally be placing more bets on underdogs because of the odds you will see at online betting sites.
We don’t advocate wagering home dogs are the universal NFL betting strategy , but they have been one of the most profitable bets when it comes to wagering on the NFL. Home dogs can also be beneficial against more public teams, such as the Patriots. Betting on home underdogs in the NFL is one of the best bets for underdogs in all of sports betting. You should always consider the odds and key numbers when placing these bets.
NBA underdogs betting strategy is the least profitable but it is still important to consider them when wagering. There are undoubtedly public biases when it comes to the NBA betting , but the amount bet on the games is not nearly as much as the NFL. But, super teams, such as the current the Warriors, garner far more wagering action than other teams. They’re also almost always the favorite in their games, even those on the road.
There can be hidden value when handicapping the NBA when looking at on the court matchups. Team X might be better than Team Y, but certain offenses will do better vs. certain defenses and so on. Diving into the matchups and understanding how teams play and how they might match up against each other is a crucial skill for betting the NBA. It’ll allow you to find hidden underdogs when they’re facing better teams in the eyes of the oddsmakers.
Sometimes, you will have situations in the NBA where public betting does have an effect on the odds. These situations occur in the NBA Playoffs or NBA Finals. Where the public’s sheer wagering amounts may move the odds one direction or keep them from moving, despite sharp betting action. Also, like the information mentioned in the NFL section, you may be able to find off-market odds in these situations. This can occur when wagering spreads, moneylines, and totals.
Basketball is a game of runs and underdog wagering is just as valuable when it comes to live NBA betting as it is betting pre-match. If a favorite gets down a lot early in the game, they may become an underdog when it comes to betting live odds. Even still, there is plenty of times were wagering on an underdog in a game where they are playing well early, but shots aren’t dropping, makes plenty of sense. Basketball is one of the best sports to bet on underdogs as crazy comebacks and wild runs by both teams are regular occurrences.
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Betting MLB underdogs is one of the best ways to profit at sports wagering, period. Not only is the sport heavily based on analytics but it is full of short term variance, which is excellent for betting on underdogs. The game isn’t influenced heavy but the public, but wagering on underdogs is an absolute must if you want to win at MLB betting . Wagering on underdogs and avoiding heavy favorites will give you a leg up on just about every other MLB bettor.
There is a reason the season is 162 games. It’s because if we played the season for just two months, we would have a far different outcome. Faking it for 162 games is hard. But, game to game, there is a whole lot of variance. The best pitcher may give up a ton of runs to the worst offense while the best offense may strike out and score nothing against one of the league’s worst pitchers.
Yes, the risk is of betting a +200 dog is far less than wagering on a -200 favorite. You only need to win the +200 one out of every three times to breakeven. However, when betting on a -200 favorite, you need to win two out of every three times for the bet to be profitable. We’re not saying never bet on favorites, but betting massive favorites, especially those -200 or more can be risky when betting baseball due to the high breakeven percentage.
Live betting baseball is an excellent time to get a favorite at a much cheaper price if the opposing team gets up early. In fact, the pre-game favorite will often be the underdog if the other team scores a few runs early. But you will be able to get the favorite at an underdog price or a much cheaper price than the pre-game markets. There is a lot of value to be had here if the runs are scored in the first few innings of the game and the live baseball odds move drastically, but you still have a lot of faith in the on-paper matchup.
It is impossible to bet on every NHL underdog night in and night out in during the hockey season. It’s important to find value in underdogs and bet those games only to maximize your winning potential. Below you will find some hockey handicapping tips that you can use to find valuable underdogs when betting on the NHL hockey games.
Home NHL underdogs are rare and you should avoid betting on them. If a team is a home underdog there is a good reason such as players injuries or is just playing really bad. If the home team is an underdog and we don’t advise wagering on them. Sometimes bad teams play well at home and win as small underdogs however you’ll find more value betting on road underdogs. This is one of the important principles of NHL handicapping.
More often than not, the best teams in each conference play well when on the road. The tricky part is finding the top NHL teams as an underdog when on the road. You may discover that all the best teams had a good road record during the past season and all of the teams that didn’t make the playoffs played horribly on the road but all has reversed during the current season. Therefore, identifying the teams thru thorough research that play well on the road at the beginning of each NHL season is very important.
If you like betting on multiple hockey games every night than underdogs are great to bet on because you can have a bad night and still break even or profit. It’s rare to see favorites sweep any given night in the NHL. If you can find the valuable underdogs you should bet as the chances of making winning bets are pretty high. Even if you go 2 for 5 on a given night of betting underdogs in the NHL you end up with a nice profit or break even. If you go 2 for 5 betting on favorites you’re going to lose a nice chunk of your bankroll.
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Home > Blog > Always Look at Sports Betting Underdogs First
The reason why I like underdog spread bets is because the outcome of any game is never 100% certain.
Here’s an example of a value moneyline bet:
An underdog has a moneyline of +200. This means that if you make a $100 bet and the underdog wins you get back your $100 and a profit of $200. You handicap the game and determine that the underdog should win the game 40 out of 100 times, or 40%.
Every handicapping system or model is different, so your might do a better job predicting winners using a different starting point than mine.
The road underdog has to offer a clear value for me to place a bet, and I usually make smaller bets than when I find value on home underdogs.
Here’s an example of using value to bet the favorite:
I handicapped a college football game because the road team looked like it had a decent chance to win the game outright. From past experience I was sure the road team would be the underdog, so I wanted to determine how many points I needed to bet on them for value.
The truth is that sometimes my model isn’t close, because no model is perfect.
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One of the things I like about betting at online sportsbooks is there’s not just one way to pick winners. Some successful handicappers find favorites to profit on using moneylines or spread lines that offer value. Other bettors find value in underdogs that have a chance to win the game outright.
Many sports bettors simply look for value, whether it’s on the favorite or underdog.
But one thing that all winning sports bettors have in common is their ability to handicap games and find value.
The way I find the most value is by looking at the underdogs first. Here’s some information to help you find more value on underdogs that I’ve used in the past.
When you look at underdogs, you can look at the spread or the moneyline . Most of my underdog wagers are on spread bets, but I do make some moneyline bets that offer long term value.
Underdogs can win a game outright or they can use the points they receive to win the bet. Sports teams don’t care about the spread. They are usually trying to win, so they keep fighting until the end.
This is why so many big favorites don’t cover the spread. They get a big lead and then let the other team fight back toward the end, even when the game is out of reach.
When I look at moneyline underdogs I use a simple calculation. I use my handicapping system to determine how often the underdog wins the game if it was played 100 times. Then I compare this to the extra money I win on the moneyline when the underdog wins, and if it’s positive I consider placing a wager.
To find out if this is a profitable bet, you determine how much you need to risk to bet on the game 100 times and your return the 40 times the underdog wins.
Your total cost to bet the game 100 times is $10,000. When you win you get $300, including your bet. This is a return of $12,000 on the 40 wins. This means that if your handicapping method is correct this is a profitable bet.
You don’t find many moneyline wagers that are this clear cut. Most of them are too close to risk a bet. When this happens you should skip the game and look for a more profitable opportunity.
Home underdogs are my favorite group of dogs to look at. Every home underdog doesn’t offer value, but some of them do. These are the games where I invest most of my bankroll.
Home teams are more likely to perform up to expectations or exceed expectations.
The players get to stay at home before the game so they tend to be better rested. The home players also are able to maintain their normal routine leading up to the game.
If you track upsets in every sport, you’re going to find that the majority of them are home underdogs. With the added benefit of receiving points when you bet the underdog, you have two ways to win. The dog can win outright or play well enough to win with the extra points.
You still need to do a good job handicapping these games to find value. Many home underdogs don’t end up providing value, so don’t force these bets.
I also tend to make larger bets on home underdogs than average. My long term profits are higher in these situations, which probably has as much to do with my handicapping system as anything else.
Before I explain how I bet on road underdogs, I want to make sure you understand something that’s very important. Betting on road underdogs is dangerous, and if you’re not a good handicapper it can cost you a great deal of money.
Road underdogs have everything working against them. They have to travel and home teams perform better on average than road teams. Even the best teams play worse on the road than they do at home.
The good news is that the online sportsbooks who set the lines take all of this into account. They adjust their lines against the road team, and sometimes they adjust them too much. When this happens you can find value.
So what I’m looking for when I consider betting on road underdogs are games where the sportsbook has overcompensated for the home team advantage.
I’ve talked about betting underdogs up to this point. But a good handicapper doesn’t care is they bet on the favorite or underdog, as long as they find value. Not everyone handicaps games the way I do, but many use something close.
When I handicap a game I determine a final score, or final spread that I believe is accurate. Some games are easier than others to predict. On the challenging games, I rarely place a bet.
If there’s not clear value on one side of a game based on the line, I save my money for a better opportunity.
When I use my system looking for underdogs who offer value, sometimes I find a line that is far from my prediction model. The first thing I do when this happens is take a close look at the way I handicapped the game to make sure I’m not missing something important.
If I don’t find a mistake in my handicapping, I’m then willing to place a bet based on the value between my prediction and the line. When the line shows value on the favorite, I don’t hesitate to bet the favorite.
My handicapping showed that there was value on any line that gave the underdog five or more points. But when I looked at the line, the home team was only favored by one. A four point difference is big, so I evaluated the game again to make sure I wasn’t missing anything.
After looking at everything again, my evaluation still looked good. This meant that there was no value in betting on the underdog. For me to win the best getting only one point the underdog had to win the game.
You might wonder how my model could be so far off if I’m any good at handicapping.
But in this case what happened is that the public was strongly backing the road team and the line moved.
This is a clear sign that there’s value on the other side of the game.
I made a bet on the home favorite, giving one, and they ended up winning a close game by three points. In this case, my original prediction was good. If I was able to get a line at +5 or more I’d have won.
But the line showed value on the other side of the game and I took advantage of it.
The point I’m trying to make is you should never ignore value.
Sometimes the only value to be found is one the favorite, but you can still get to this point by looking at the underdogs first.
Underdogs on spread bets can help you win by winning the game outright or playing well enough to win with the points.
Every underdog doesn’t offer value, but if you do a good job handicapping games you can make a long term profit betting on underdogs.
Of course, you’re also going to find games where the favorite offers good value, so you need to be willing to take advantage of these opportunities when you find them. Winning sports bettors take advantage of every value bet they find.
Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.
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