Our community, 926 want it Our community, 896 want it Our community, 880 want it Our community, 424 want it Star Wars Value Pack Our community, 302 want it Our community, 2491 want it MINI Cooper MK VII Our community, 2763 want it Our community, 5489 want it Our community, 2589 want it Our community, 2330 want it Our community, 42 want it Our community, 64 want it Our community, 70 want it Our community, 98 want it Our community, 76 want it Our community, 62 want it Our community, 46 want it My First Police Set Our community, 54 want it Fire and Rescue Team Our community, 50 want it Sleeping Beauty's Fairy Tale Our community, 78 want it Our community, 97 want it Our community, 112 want it Our community, 137 want it Our community, 53 want it Our community, 37 want it Our community, 87 want it Toddler Build and Boat Fun Our community, 49 want it
Our community, 66 want itLego sets come in all different sizes with different numbers of Lego pieces. Of course bigger sets cost more, but is there a linear relationship between set size and cost? Let’s take a look. Oh, and yes – I did look at this before, but that was a long time ago. It’s time to revisit the data. It’s not too difficult to find data for Lego prices and number of pieces. If you just look on the Lego online store. There you can find both the price and the number of pieces for each set. You can even sort them by “themes” – like “Star Wars” or “friends” Even though it’s easy to get, I only collected price data for a subset of the themes (mostly because I am lazy). If I put all of this data together, I can get a plot of the set price vs. number of pieces in set. Here is what that looks like. Let’s look at the linear function that fits this data. The slope of this line is 0.104 US Dollars per Lego piece. There is your answer. On average, one Lego piece costs 10.4 cents.
Also, I think it’s nice to notice that this data is fairly linear.What about the y-intercept for this fitting function? The value from the fit is 7.34 USD. That means that for this function, if you had a Lego set with zero pieces in it, it would still cost $7.34 – you know, for the box and instructions and stuff. Yes, I know that there are Lego sets cheaper than $7.34 – this is just the y-intercept for the fitting function. Now let me point out the three outliers in this plot. Notice that all of these (one from Duplo and two from the City theme) are train sets. Of course train sets are going to be more expensive than a set with the same number of pieces (but not a train) because of the electric motors and stuff. If you are looking for a “good deal”, might I suggest the Trevi Fountain (21020). This set has 731 pieces for just $49.99. According to the fitting function, a set with this many pieces should cost about 83 dollars. Suppose I break all the data into the different themes.
If I fit a linear function to each of the different themes, I can get both the price per piece of Lego and the price of a zero piece set. Here are the brick prices for some of the Lego themes. The error bars are the uncertainties in the fit parameters. If you know what a Duplo block is, you probably aren’t surprised that they are the most expensive (63 cents per brick). These are bricks created for smaller kids. They are all large so that you can’t swallow them. It just makes since that they would cost more. The other expensive bricks are the City sets. But this is deceiving due to the high set prices of the train kits. I suspect if you removed these train sets from the plot, it would be a more normal price. What about the base cost? This is the y-intercept of the linear fit. Here you will notice that the City theme has a negative base cost. This means that if there were no pieces (on average) in a City set, Lego would pay YOU money. But why is this negative? It’s because of the high price of the train sets.
They increase the slope of the linear fit but also push the y-intercept into negative values. The real bargains are the Architecture themed sets. These have a base cost of only 70.7 cents where as the Marvel themed sets have a base cost of 3.61 USD. I’ve probably already answered some of these questions in the past, but it would still be fun as a homework assignment. Some of these aren’t too difficult. You could think of them as Duplo Homework. Notice that not even once did I use a plural version of the term “Lego”.As we are almost at the end of the year, I thought this was a good time for an annual review of the largest LEGO sets released during 2016. This has been a particularly interesting period, because the number of big sets almost doubled compared to previous years. In fact, let’s start out with a short comparison, before discussing the current year. ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2010: There were a total of three large sets over 2,000 pieces this year, the largest being over 4,000 pieces! T
he largest set was the #10214 LEGO Creator Tower Bridge (still available, see link) with 4,287 pieces and a price of $239.99. The second largest set was the #10212 LEGO Star Wars Imperial Shuttle with 2,503 pieces and a price of $259.99. The third largest set was the #10211 LEGO Creator Grand Emporium with 2,182 pieces and a price of $149.99. All other sets had less than 2,000 pieces. ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2011: There were a total of five large sets over 2,000 pieces this year. The largest LEGO set released in 2010 was the #10221 LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series Super Star Destroyer with 3,152 pieces and a price of $399.99. The second largest set was the #21010 LEGO Architecture Robie House with 2,276 pieces and a price of $199.99. The third largest set was the #8110 LEGO Technic Mercedes-Benz Unimog U 400 with 2,048 pieces and a price of $199.99. The fourth largest set was the #10218 LEGO Creator Pet Shop (retiring soon) with 2,032 pieces and a price of $149.99. The fifth largest set was the #10217 LEGO Harry Potter Diagon Alley with 2,025 pieces and a price of $149.99. A
ll other sets had less than 2,000 pieces. Note that only one set had over 3,000 pieces and costs over $200. ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2012: Looks like in 2012 LEGO decided to be even more conservative, as no sets reached 3,000 pieces or costs more than $200. There were a total of three large sets over 2,000 pieces. The largest set released was the #10224 LEGO Creator Town Hall with 2,766 pieces and a price of $199.99. The second largest set was the #10225 LEGO Star Wars R2-D2 with 2,127 pieces and a price of $179.99. The third largest set was the #10228 LEGO Monster Fighters Haunted House with 2,064 pieces and a price of $179.99. All other sets had less than 2,000 pieces. ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2013: This year is about the same as the previous one, with no set reaching 3,000 pieces, and only three sets were over $200. There were four large sets over 2,000 pieces. The largest set released was the #10234 LEGO Creator Sydney Opera House (retiring soon) with 2,989 pieces and a price of $319.99. T
he second largest set was the #42009 LEGO Technic Mobile Crane MK II with 2,606 pieces and a price of $219.99. The third largest set was the #10237 LEGO The Lord of the Rings Tower of Orthanc with 2,359 pieces and a price of $199.99. The fourth largest set was the #10232 LEGO Creator Palace Cinema with 2,196 pieces and a price of $149.99. The fifth largest set was the #10236 LEGO Star Wars Ewok Village (retiring soon) with 1,999 pieces and a price of $249.99. (It is only one piece below the 2K threshold, so I added it here, plus it is considered a LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collectors Series set, so it deserves to be mentioned.) A ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2014: This year there were four large sets over 2,000 pieces, with one of the sets reaching over 3,000 pieces. As far as price, only two sets were over $200. The largest set was the #75059 LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series Sandcrawler (retiring soon) with 3,296 pieces and a price of $299.99. The second largest set was the #70810 LEGO Movie MetalBeard’s Sea Cow with 2,741 pieces and a price of $249.99. T
he third largest set was the #71006 LEGO The Simpsons House with 2,523 pieces and a price of $199.99. The fourth largest set was the #10243 LEGO Creator Parisian Restaurant with 2,469 pieces and a price of $159.99. A ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2015: In 2015 LEGO started to get bolder and released six large sets over 2,000 pieces, and one that almost reached the 2K threshold. But there were no sets over 3,000 pieces, and only two sets costs above $200. The largest set in 2015 was the #76042 LEGO Super Heroes SHIELD Helicarrier with 2,996 pieces and a price of $349.99. The second largest set was the #42043 LEGO Technic Mercedes-Benz Arocs 3245 with 2,793 pieces and a price of $229.99. The third largest set was the #10247 LEGO Creator Ferris Wheel with 2,464 pieces and a price of $199.99. The fourth largest set was the #10246 LEGO Creator Detective’s Office with 2,264 pieces and a price of $159.99. The fifth largest set was the #71016 LEGO The Simpsons Kwik-E-Mart with 2,179 pieces and a price of $199.99. T
he sixth largest set was the #70751 LEGO Ninjago Temple of Airjitzu with 2,208 pieces and a price of $199.99. Honorable mention goes to the seventh largest set, which is just below the 2K piece threshold; the #75060 LEGO Star Wars Ultimate Collector Series Slave I with 1,996 pieces and a price of $199.99. A ➡ LARGE EXCLUSIVE LEGO SETS 2016: And here we are in 2016, with an unprecedented nine large sets over 2,000 pieces, four of which are over 4,000 pieces and one almost reaching 5K. And eight of the nine sets are over $200. If you look at the pattern of the previous years, you can see that this is completely unheard of. The largest set in 2016 is the #75827 LEGO Ghostbusters Firehouse Headquarters with 4,634 pieces and a price of $349.99. The second largest set is the #10253 LEGO Creator Big Ben with 4,163 pieces and a price of $249.99. The third largest set is the #71040 LEGO Disney Castle with 4,080 pieces and a price of $349.99. The fourth largest set is the #75159 LEGO Star Wars Death Star with 4,016 pieces and a (crazy) price of $499.99. T
he fifth largest set is the #42055 LEGO Technic Bucket Wheel Excavator with 3,927 pieces and a price of $279.99. The sixth largest set is the #42056 LEGO Technic Porsche 911 GT3 RS with 2,704 pieces and a price of $299.99. The seventh largest set is the #76052 LEGO Super Heroes Batman Classic TV Series Batcave with 2,526 pieces and a price of $269.99. The eight largest set is the #10251 LEGO Creator Brick Bank with 2,380 pieces and a price of $169.99. And the ninth largest set of 2016 is the #75098 LEGO Star Wars Assault on Hoth with 2,144 pieces and a price of $249.99. All other sets have less than 2,000 pieces. While in previous years all of the large exclusive sets received pretty much universally positive reviews, 2016 is a bit troubled in this regard. From the nine sets released, the #75827 LEGO Ghostbusters Firehouse Headquarters, the #10253 LEGO Creator Big Ben, the #71040 LEGO Disney Castle, the #42055 LEGO Technic Bucket Wheel Excavator, the #42056 LEGO Technic Porsche 911 GT3 RS, and the #10251 LEGO Creator Brick Bank are all considered very solid sets. O
n the other hand, the #76052 LEGO Super Heroes Batman Classic TV Series Batcave, and the #75098 LEGO Star Wars Assault on Hoth received a lot of criticism for some of the design decisions. And while the #75159 LEGO Star Wars Death Star is a good set, it is almost exactly the same as the previous version, but for a $100 more. So from the nine sets, six are definite winners, while the remaining three are a bit questionable. While it is nice to see so many large sets, the significant rise in piece-count and price is troubling to some LEGO fans. Previously, with a well-managed budget, most LEGO fans had no trouble picking up the large exclusive sets they liked each year, or even all of them. However in 2016 only one set is below $200, five are between $200-$300, two are $350, and one is $500. That’s a lot. And of course this means that LEGO fans need to pick and choose their favorite large sets more carefully, plan ahead accordingly, and also manage their budget even more vigilantly. A
nd we haven’t even taken into consideration many of the excellent smaller sets that were released this year! I’m curious to see if LEGO will continue to flood the market with extra-large sets next year, or will cut back some to the previous levels to focus on quality and keep the uniqueness of the exclusives. If you are considering purchasing any of the large exclusive sets before the end of the year, I would suggest that you check out reviews of the sets to make sure you end up getting the one you would be the most happy about. The sets come from a wide variety of themes (LEGO Creator, LEGO Technic, LEGO Star Wars, LEGO Super Heroes, LEGO Ghostbusters, and LEGO Disney), so there is something for everyone. Also, remember that some of the older sets from previous years are still available, but are scheduled to retire soon (see: LEGO Sets Retiring Soon & Sales and Deals). You can find both the current and previous large exclusive sets under their respective themes and under the Exclusives and the Hard to Find section of the Online LEGO Shop.