Update: The big day is almost here, and we're already seeing Black Friday video game deals! Click here to see our roundup of Black Friday video game deals you can buy now, or read our roundup of the top video game ads to see what's still to come. Statistically speaking, at least one person on your gift list this holiday season is probably a gamer. Whether you want AAA game titles or bleeding-edge Virtual Reality hardware, we've got the predictions to keep you — and your budget — happy. And as surprises come (like Target's immediate discount of the PS4 Pro), we're updating accordingly. This year for our Black Friday predictions, we've created a "cheat sheet" with the top tips you need to know when shopping this season. For savvy consumers who want more information, scroll down for our in-depth analysis. So what can you expect from Black Friday gaming deals? Then, consider signing up for the DealNews Select newsletter to keep track of the latest deals in your inbox, or download our app to have them at your fingertips.
Want more details on how, what, where, and when to buy video game deals this Black Friday? Then check out our full analysis below. So far, 2016 has seen the death of the Xbox 360 and the official release of the Oculus Rift. We're in the midst of a massive generation shift across every single platform, with new hardware launching from Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo this year and next. Virtual reality is the future of gaming, and tomorrow's console specs are going to reflect that — and so will their prices. First out of the next-generation console gates is Sony's PS4 Pro. This console, with its significant spec bump over the PS4, isn't the "PS4.5" harbinger of the PS5 we once thought it to be. This 4K-ready beast is Sony's new console, with the PS4 Slim playing a similar role to Microsoft's Xbox One S. Its November 10 release came with a happy surprise: an immediate 10% price cut at Target. We're expecting this new $360 price tag to stick around for now, but shoppers should probably jump on this deal sooner rather than later.
Popularity and heavy crowds are likely to lead to PS4 Pro stock shortages come Black Friday. If Sony faithfuls are disappointed by a dearth of Black Friday discounts on next-gen hardware, they can count themselves lucky next to Microsoft and Nintendo fans. Both the Nintendo NX and Project Scorpio consoles are still in their codename phases, and neither is expected to be released until 2017. So assuming you're not buying bleeding-edge tech, when should you shop for gaming-related deals during Black Friday? In general, you're going to find offers on games, consoles, and accessories sprinkled throughout Black Friday week — with the largest concentration of video game deals in particular on Thanksgiving. Last year, about 56% of Black Friday week deals listed across all these categories were hot enough to be marked Editors' Choice; 67% of the video game titles listed on Thanksgiving alone earned that distinction! A word of caution, however: The overall number of gaming deals available tends to drop off sharply after Black Friday, especially if you're shopping for a console.
Last year, we didn't see a single PS4 or handheld deal during Cyber Week. Make no mistake: The Xbox One S and PS4 Slim are already previous-gen consoles. That said, these rigs both boast sleek new cases and bargain basement prices — and the Xbox One S even sports a few upgrades! We're expecting these consoles to follow a Black Friday bundle pricing pattern that's similar to last year's old-gen models. Gift cards and store credit were the name of the game in 2015, so you can expect to earn anywhere from $50 to $100 on your purchase, but you'll have to shell out at least $300 on the 500GB bundles. The time of the PS3, Xbox One, and Wii U has passed, but that doesn't mean the deals have. Xbox One prices have already fallen precipitously — we listed a 1TB bundle in June for just $220. With the announcement of the next-gen PS4 Pro, the old PS4's price can't be far behind. The 8GB Wii U consoles have already fallen to $173 as of July. That's why we're (rather conservatively) predicting an across-the-board Black Friday price of $200 for previous-gen consoles.
We're betting retailers like GameStop and Best Buy are going to want to clear these models out. Unfortunately, deals on the industry-changing technology are beyond scarce at the moment. We've seen exactly three PlayStation VR deals to date. The popular system came down to $500 during its preorder phase, but who knows if it'll crawl back down from the $550 list price after the October 13 release. We haven't seen a single HTC Vive or Oculus Rift deal (nor do we expect to this year). But Oculus-powered Gear VR deals have been plentiful. These headsets, which work with select Samsung phones, have fallen to as low as $60 in recent weeks — and $50 wouldn't be out of the question on Black Friday. Black Friday is the perfect time to bulk up your collection with this year's latest hits. While the console bundles mentioned above are the best way to pay next to nothing for new releases, many AAA video games (ie, hotly-anticipated, big-budget games that tend to become major hits) will see their list prices halved or better for the shopping holiday.
Already this year, we've seen Far Cry Primal and Uncharted 4: A Thief's End hit $25, while Quantum Break and Mirror's Edge Catalyst both fell to $30. It's worth noting that Q3 and Q4 titles, which are released closer to Black Friday, are more likely to be listed at $45 to $50. Pay attention to reviews, though! A game that's critically DOA could see major price drops — the recently released No Man's Sky saw an almost immediate drop to $48 on PS4 after its lukewarm reception. These flop games could see prices in the $40 range on Black Friday. Although we're predicting that game bundles for Nintendo's 3DS XL will fall to $150 on Black Friday, you may want to seriously reconsider the purchase. A good tablet can handle a wide assortment of games, and the handheld market has gotten considerably smaller in recent years. Sony has all but killed the PS Vita, after all; the best price we've seen for this system all year was $85 for a refurb.Even Nintendo, maker of the mighty DS, has thrown its lot in with mobile gaming.