两会开幕：聚焦重振经济，习近平进一步扩权 - 纽约时报双语版
纽约时报双语版储百亮, KEITH BRADSHER, 王月眉, CHANG CHE2023年3月5日
Xi Jinping is on the political march again. After a turbulent year that ended in faltering growth, widespread protests, and a surge of deaths after China abruptly abandoned Covid controls, China’s top leader is poised to secure even more power at the annual gathering of the national legislature that opened on Sunday.
习近平再次踏上政治征程。在结束了经济增长乏力、各地爆发抗议活动，以及突然放弃新冠“清零”措施后死亡人数激增的动荡的一年之后，中国的最高领导人正蓄势待发，准备在周日开幕的全国人民代表大会上获得更多的权力。
At the start of the National People’s Congress, the Chinese government laid out a post-Covid agenda centered on reviving the economy with a 5 percent growth target, raising spending on military, education and social needs, and augmenting Mr. Xi’s already formidable influence.
在开幕式上，中国政府提出了后疫情时代的议程，它以重振经济为重点，制定了5%的增长目标，并提高军事、教育和社会需求方面的支出，进一步扩大习近平已有的强大影响力。
The nearly 3,000 carefully selected delegates to the legislature, who are meeting for nine days in Beijing, are set to appoint a new cohort of government leaders crowded with Mr. Xi’s loyalists by the end of the congress. They are also expected to approve a bureaucratic reorganization that will further concentrate policymaking under Mr. Xi and the party.
近3000名经过精心挑选的人大代表将在北京举行为期九天的会议，他们将在大会结束前将下届政府委任给一个充满了习近平亲信的领导班子。预计他们还将批准中共提出的《党和国家机构改革方案》，将制定决策的权力进一步集中在习近平和中共手里。
“Xi is back, and he has wasted no time in arrogating more powers to himself,” said Willy Wo-Lap Lam, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, who studies Chinese politics. Mr. Xi and other leaders had calculated that they could pull back Covid controls — and endure a wave of what may have been a million or more deaths across China — without unleashing a long, severe political crisis, Mr. Lam said.
“习近平回来了，他正在为揽下更多权力迅速行动起来，”在詹姆斯敦基金会研究中国政治的高级研究员林和立说。习近平和其他领导人已有的算计是，他们能够在不引发一场长期严重政治危机的情况下取消严格的新冠病毒控制措施、承受中国各地后续可能一百万或更多的死亡，林和立说道。
“The leadership made this big gamble on this about-face on pandemic policy,” Mr. Lam said, “and the gamble has, at least on the surface, worked out so far politically, despite all the deaths in the first month of the reversal.”
“领导层在新冠疫情政策180度大转弯上下了大赌注，”林和立说，“至少从表面上看，这场赌博到目前为止在政治上很成功，尽管在政策逆转后的第一个月里死了那么多人。”
解放军代表团进入人民大会堂，摄于周日。Since the collapse of its stringent “zero Covid” policy in December, the Chinese leadership has shifted its focus to restoring growth and creating jobs, seeking to reassure private businesses that they are a vital part of the national economy.
自从去年12月突然取消了严格的新冠“清零”政策以来，中国领导层已将重点转移到恢复经济增长、创造就业机会上来，当局试图说服民营部门，它们是国民经济的一个重要组成部分。
The question hanging over China is whether Mr. Xi can instill economic confidence, especially among private investors, while continuing to expand the Communist Party’s control over the country, as he has signaled he will do.
中国一个悬而未决的问题是，习近平是否能逐步培养经济信心，尤其是在私人投资者当中，同时继续扩大中共对国家的控制，正如他暗示将要做的那样。
“He has not fundamentally given up on his original goals; it’s a temporary tactical retreat,” Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College who studies Chinese politics, said in an interview. “But in order to get the economy truly back on track, he needs to convince the skeptics that he’s now for real.”
“他并没有从根本上放弃他的最初目标；这只是一个临时的战术撤退，”克莱蒙麦肯纳学院研究中国政治的教授裴敏欣在接受采访时说。“但为了让经济真正重回正轨，他需要使怀疑者相信，他现在要动真格了。”
Mr. Xi also wants to elevate China into a technologically advanced superpower capable of standing up to Washington as a peer, a vision that he now calls “Chinese-style modernization.” In a recent speech, he suggested that any pragmatic shifts in policy must not be seen as a U-turn from those grand goals.
习近平还想把中国提升为一个拥有先进技术的超级大国，有与美国匹敌的能力，他现在将这个愿景称为“中国式现代化”。他在最近的一次讲话中暗示，政策的任何务实转变都不能被视为偏离这些宏伟目标的180度大转弯。
“We must keep our eyes fixed on the great issues that bear on the rise or fall, success or failure, of the party and country, and that could shake everything with one touch,” he told a meeting of recently promoted party officials last month. “We need to organically meld strategic principle with tactical flexibility.”
我们必须“着眼于解决事关党和国家事业兴衰成败、牵一发而动全身的重大问题”，他上个月在中央党校对新晋升的干部们发表讲话时说。“要把战略的原则性和策略的灵活性有机结合起来。”
北京天坛公园的游客，摄于上月。In a sign of Beijing’s concern about the challenges of reinvigorating the economy, the premier, Li Keqiang, said that China would aim to expand growth by “around 5 percent” this year, a relatively modest target. Exports have faltered this winter as global demand has stalled, while it is unclear if China’s consumers can help sustain a recovery, and business confidence is weak.
总理李克强说，中国今年的经济增长目标是“5%左右”，这目标相对不高，表明政府对重振经济的挑战仍有所担忧。由于全球需求停滞，中国今冬的出口已放缓，而国内消费者能否帮助支撑经济复苏尚不明朗，国内的商业信心也很弱。
“Uncertainties in the external environment are on the rise,” he told the congress. “At home, the foundation for stable growth needs to be consolidated, insufficient demand remains a pronounced problem, and the expectations of private investors and businesses are unstable.”
“外部环境不确定性加大，”李克强在全国人大上说。“国内经济增长企稳向上基础尚需巩固，需求不足仍是突出矛盾，民间投资和民营企业预期不稳。”
Many economists regard 3 percent, China’s official growth rate last year, as an overstatement of the true performance of the economy, which had been smothered by stringent “zero Covid” measures and spreading pandemic lockdowns.
许多经济学家认为，中国去年3%的官方增长数字夸大了经济的真实表现。中国严格的新冠“清零”措施和大面积的封控抑制了经济增长。
After a dismal December, the economy has shown signs of a recovery. Shopping areas are again crowded, and factory activity is having its strongest acceleration in more than a decade.
去年12月的经济表现惨淡，但那之后已出现了复苏迹象。城市的购物中心再次变得热闹起来，制造业正在以十多年来最强劲的速度反弹。
前来上海一家医院急诊室里看病的患者，摄于今年1月。Li Bin, a 35-year-old technician in Tianjin, said during a lunchtime riverside walk on Friday that he had barely ventured out of his home for the past three years except to work. But in recent weeks, he said, “I have saved less, felt free, eaten more, gone out to play more, and returned to normal activity.”
家住天津的35岁技术人员李斌（音）上周五的午餐时间在河边散步时说，在过去三年里，他除了去工作，几乎没有出过家门。但他说，最近几周，“存得少了，放开了，吃得多了，出去玩得多了，回归正常水平了。”
To help revive economic growth, China has eased its drive to rein in property developers, whose high debt levels are seen as a risk to the wider economy. The government has signaled that its regulatory crackdown on Big Tech had achieved its objectives.
为了帮助重振经济增长，中国已放松了对房地产开发商的严格限制，政府曾认为开发商的高额债务已给整体经济带来风险。政府还释放信号，表示对大型科技企业的监管打击已实现了目标。
Seeking to lower tensions with the United States, Mr. Xi held talks with President Biden in November aimed at arresting the countries’ slide toward a new cold war. But the relationship has only deteriorated since then. Beijing gave little ground after the Biden administration accused it of flying a spy balloon over the United States. Last month, Washington accused Beijing of considering sending lethal support to help Russia’s war in Ukraine, a claim Chinese officials have rejected.
为了缓和与美国的紧张关系，习近平已在去年11月与拜登总统举行了会晤，以防两国走向新冷战。但两国关系在那之后出现了进一步恶化。拜登政府指责中国的间谍气球飞到美国上空后，中国政府几乎毫不让步。上个月，华盛顿指责北京正在考虑向俄罗斯提供致命性武器，帮助支持后者在乌克兰的战争，中国官员否认了这个说法。
Beijing sees the United States as trying to contain China’s rise, but it does not want the rivalry with Washington to slip out of control, said Chao Chun-shan, a Taiwanese political science professor who recently visited China and met senior Chinese officials.
最近去过中国并出席了与中国高级官员会晤的台湾政治学教授赵春山说，北京认为美国试图遏制中国的崛起，但它不希望与华盛顿的竞争关系失控。
“Almost everyone I met told me that the United States will not permit a powerful China by its side, especially in the Indo-Pacific region,” Professor Chao said. Their strategy, he added, is: “Contesting without tipping into a rupture.”
赵春山说，“我见到的几乎所有人都对我说，美国不会允许一个强大的中国与其平起平坐，尤其是在印太地区。”他还说，他们的策略是“斗而不破”。
中国东部一家生产半导体包装材料的工厂，摄于上月。In a sign of the importance Beijing places on asserting its position in the world, the government also plans to raise its military budget by 7.2 percent, which would increase spending to nearly $225 billion, despite the strains that might impose on state finances. Spending on the foreign ministry and other diplomatic efforts will grow even faster, by 12.2 percent.
作为中国重视维护其世界地位的一个迹象，政府还计划将军事预算提高7.2%，将国防支出增加到15537亿元人民币，尽管这可能会给国家财政带来压力。外交部的预算以及其他用于外交努力的支出将有更大的增长，增长率达12.2%。
Mr. Xi has also urged his party to take a more hands-on approach in developing the country’s science and technology capabilities to reduce its reliance on Western expertise. This directive has become more urgent as the United States has tightened restrictions on exports to China.
习近平还要求中共在发展国家的科学技术能力上亲力亲为，减少对西方专门技能的依赖。随着美国加大对中国的出口限制，这项指令已变得更加紧迫。
Mr. Xi also sees extending and cementing his own power as necessary to ensuring China’s ascent in an increasingly perilous world.
习近平还认为，扩大和巩固自己的权力对于确保中国在日益危险的世界中崛起是必要的。
The congress will almost certainly give him a groundbreaking third term as state president, atop his main title of Communist Party general secretary. And Mr. Xi will also use the congress to reorganize state ministries and agencies, centralizing more policymaking around him and the party.
全国人大将破天荒地授予习近平第三个国家主席任期几乎已成定局，除了国家主席，他还有中共中央总书记的头衔。习近平还将利用这次大会重组国家部委和机构，将更多决策权集中在他和中共手中。
周日的人民大会堂。Scholars have said that the plan may include a new homeland security commission that will integrate police and state security agencies, reflecting Mr. Xi’s emphasis on a national security state.
学者们表示，机构改革方案中可能包括一个负责国土安全的新的中央委员会，将对公安部和国安部进行统一领导，这反映了习近平对国家安全体制的重视。
China’s police and state security forces are already firmly in the grip of the Communist Party, and Mr. Xi has also built a National Security Commission to help extinguish threats, especially challenges to Communist Party power. The new homeland security commission may, however, try to bring greater cohesiveness to this collection of agencies.
中国的警察和国家安全部队已牢牢地掌握在中共手中。为了帮助消除威胁，尤其是对中共权力的挑战，习近平已经成立了中央国家安全委员会。但新的国土安全委员会也许会对国内的安全机构进行更大的整合。
“It would be to put more political muscle behind Xi’s obsession with immunizing the Communist Party from domestic and foreign threats to its rule,” said Neil Thomas, a researcher who will soon begin as a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
“这会在习近平痴迷的问题上赋予他更多的政治威力，他一直想让中共免受国内外对其统治的威胁，”即将在亚洲协会政策研究所的中国分析中心担任研究员的牛犇(Neil Thomas)说。
On Sunday, the capital, Beijing, was itself a showcase of the government’s twin agendas of restoring normalcy and maintaining strict control. Visitors have returned to the city in droves since Covid restrictions ended, swamping tourist sites, including Tiananmen Square, next to the Great Hall of the People where the legislative meeting was taking place.
周日的首都北京本身就是一个展示场所，用来呈现政府既要恢复正常又要保持严格控制的双重议程。自从政府解除了限制疫情的措施以来，成群结队的游客已经回来了，旅游景点人满为患，其中包括天安门广场，正在举行人大会议的人民大会堂就在这里。
But on Sunday, police officers had closed many of the subway exits opening onto the square, forcing visitors into long lines for identification checks. Some people discovered upon arriving to the square that only those with advance reservations were being allowed in — a holdover policy from the Covid era. Disappointed, they left.
不过，警察已在周日关闭了多个通往广场的地铁站出口，游客必须排长队接受身份检查。一些人到了广场后才发现，进广场需要提前预约，这是新冠疫情时代遗留下来的政策。他们只能失望地离去。
Amy Chang Chien和Li You对本文有报道和研究贡献。
储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》首席中国记者。他成长于澳大利亚悉尼，在过去30年中的大部分时间内居住在中国。在2012年加入《纽约时报》之前，他是路透社的一名记者。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@ChuBailiang。
Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》北京分社社长，曾任上海分社社长、香港分社社长、底特律分社社长。他此前曾驻华盛顿报道国际贸易新闻。2013年，他所在的团队凭借对苹果的报道获得了普利策奖。1998年，他凭借对运动型多用途汽车(SUV)存在危险的报道入围普利策奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@KeithBradsher。
王月眉(Vivian Wang)是《纽约时报》驻华记者，常驻北京，撰写关于中国的崛起及野心如何塑造普通人日常生活的报道。欢迎在Twitter上关注她：@vwang3。
Chang Che是时报亚洲科技记者。他曾为“中国项目”工作，并作为自由撰稿人报道中国的技术和社会。欢迎在Twitter上关注他：@changxche。
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