Betting strategy. Anyone can go to the site of the best bookmakers and place a bet on their favorite football team. It does not require any study or real strategy. Marshall World of Sport app download. But making such bets is pointless because you often lose your money. For a proper betting strategy, you need to try to understand the meaning of the word “value”.

To that end, you should consider the following tips to evaluate the value of teams and the odds you are analyzing:

• Estimate the team's winning percentage.

• Find the best odds for a team win.

• Multiply the suggested percentage by the offered share.

• Any score equal to or greater than 1.00 must be considered valuable and worth a bet.

Understanding the value of shares

Take, for example, a real football match: the 2020 FA Cup Final between Chelsea and Arsenal, two British Premier League teams. Betfair Chelsea is 1.9 and William Hill is 1.8. On the other hand, Arsenal were offered at 4.5 and 4.75 respectively.

Many inexperienced bettors looking at these odds would think ten times before betting on Arsenal, while others would see an opportunity to make a profit. Taking into account the highest odd offered for Arsenal, William Hill's 4.75, the Gunners' hypothetical winning percentage would be 22%.

Following the winning betting strategy advice discussed in the previous paragraph, multiplying the percentage by the odds (0.22 x 4.75) would result in a result greater than 1.00 (1.05).

In percentage terms, it looks as if Arsenal could only win one out of every five games played against Chelsea. Some Blues fans would certainly agree with such odds, but Arsenal fans knew their side had earned their place in the final by beating trophy-winners Manchester City in the semi-finals.

In addition, Arsenal experienced a positive moment under the leadership of Mikel Arteta, and also had one of the strongest strikers in England, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. All of these tips would be taken into account by the most experienced bettors to create a working football betting strategy to understand that betting on Arsenal would be the right choice.

The Gunners ended up winning the final score 2-1, restoring the initial inconvenience thanks to a double from Aubameyang.

Use Math to Estimate Chances

While finding the perfect rate - the most profitable - should always be the end goal, it's important to know what to look for and where. In fact, in betting strategies it is useless to understand the meaning of the word "value" without knowing where to apply it. From this point of view, an advanced staking strategy known as Poisson distribution should be used.

Simply put, the Poisson distribution is a mathematical way of quantifying the probability of random situations occurring over a fixed period of time. For example, if you know that Arsenal's average is 1.5 per game, you can use the distribution formula to predict the mathematical probability that the Gunners will score a certain number of goals in a given situation.

However, first of all, it is important to know the strength of attack and defense, which is also useful for betting on goals.

To determine the strength of a team's attack, it is necessary to establish the average number of goals scored by the team and per game (home and away). To do this, simply divide the number of goals scored (at home) by the number of games played in the season. It's the same with looking for the average number of away goals.

After that, you will need to calculate the strength of the protection. To do this, you will need the formula used above, using goals conceded instead of goals scored.

Football betting strategy

At the end of these mathematical operations, you will have four data:

• Attack power in home games

• Attack strength in away matches

• Strength of defense in home games

• Defensive strength in away matches

You can now begin to evaluate a team's strength against the league average in your football betting strategy. For example, if Arsenal scored 35 goals at home in 19 games, the attack power would be 1842 (35/19). So let's imagine that the previous season's offensive power was 1492 (eg 567 goals divided over 380 games).

With these two data, you can divide Arsenal's result by the seasonal average result to get 1235 (1842/1492). Once you have determined the attack strength of the gunners, you can do the same to calculate the defense strength of the Londoners.

At this point, you will end up with two data. For the purposes of this example, let's assume that the opposing team, Chelsea, has an away defense strength of 0.881. You can then multiply those two numbers by the seasonal average to get the final value:

1.235 x 0.881 x 1.492 = 1.623

The result of this equation determines that Arsenal can statistically score 1,623 goals against Chelsea.

Obviously, there may be other factors involved in the calculations, such as injuries, disqualifications, and current th form.

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