covid-19 testing
It seems to have become a write-up of faith to those that, for whatever strange reason, feel an obligation to underplay the seriousness of the Covid-19 pandemic, that notwithstanding the apparent resurgence of the virus it's somehow less threatening or less deadly this time around around. Whilst case numbers are increasing, they argue, any corresponding escalation in the number of fatalities has thus far been negligible covid-19 testing.
On the surface of it there would appear to be some evidence to guide these claims. At the height of the very first wave of infections the United States saw 34,196 new cases within a day and a top of 2,804 deaths. The 2nd time around saw daily cases peak at 78.009, yet "only" 1,504 deaths were recorded on the darkest day.
Tests ramped up massively
To start with these figures need to be treated with some caution. Almost everywhere testing has been ramped up massively since the very first wave of infections prompted lockdowns across the western world. The figures we've only represent confirmed positive cases, and it's all but sure the virus was substantially more prevalent in the US in April than it had been in July. Generally in most western economies the start of the pandemic saw testing only being undertaken in hospitals, whilst the bigger quantity of infected individuals who either were asymptomatic or who endured symptoms mild enough not to require hospital treatment were left to guess. As a result the ratio of deaths to infections hasn't altered as starkly since the statistics would seem to suggest.
All the same, it's notable that at the same time when tens of thousands of people are still testing positive for the virus the number of fatalities has dropped to a remarkably low point, especially perhaps in Europe. For most of June and July daily deaths in Spain were in single figures, and within the United Kingdom fatality numbers remain similarly low describe a concrete recent escalation in transmission.
A far more cavalier attitude
The received wisdom has it that infections these times be seemingly most predominant amongst younger people, particularly in the 20-29 age group. This could seem to produce sense bearing in your mind that younger people have a tendency to interact more with one another, and also that not many people in this generation become seriously ill with the virus and therefore an even more cavalier attitude may be expected. But we've precious little to compare it with. As only people admitted to hospital were being tested back in March and April, we probably had very little notion of so how many individuals were carrying the virus, particularly between the young.
The recent evidence from France and Spain is a contagion which begins by doing the rounds between the young does inevitably find its way into older society after a few years, and then hospital admissions and sadly deaths do indeed follow. Whilst fatalities are thankfully nowhere near the levels that individuals saw back in the spring, those two countries have observed significant increases in both, and the very first stories of intensive care units being close to saturation have begun to emerge from Marseilles. In the United Kingdom, which seems always to be a few weeks behind continental Europe in these matters, an uptick in the number of hospital admissions and ventilator use has been noted over the past few days.
Low survival rate
Undoubtedly since the pandemic has progressed hospital staff have be much more proficient in how the virus works, and more adept at treating sufferers. It is quite likely that the hideous procedure for intubation was used too enthusiastically during the earlier months, and the introduction of CPAP technology has allowed many in order to avoid being forced to undergo this experience which had an unappealingly low survival rate. The successful usage of remdesivir (largely in the United States) and dexamethasone experienced an optimistic impact when it comes to lessening the duration of the sickness and, in the latter case, preventing an important quantity of deaths. These factors alone ensure that, provided that health services aren't overwhelmed when and if future spikes occur, fatality rates must certanly be statistically lower than they were in the spring.
Of course, life-saving treatments directed at seriously ill patients only benefit those who find themselves receiving hospital care. Their increased use doesn't have relevance to the question of whether fewer individuals with Covid-19 are in fact bring admitted to hospital in the very first place. If this really is indeed the case (and we are too early into the latest phase to find out whether it is with any certainty), it might be at least partly right down to the fact the National Health Service is becoming better at assessing which patients need to be hospitalised after becoming ill.
May be the virus becoming less lethal?
All of this brings us to the ultimate question, that will be has there been any significant change in the character of the virus which might have made it less deadly? On this matter the jury is still out. There were some tentative suggestions a mutation has brought place that has produced an even more contagious but less lethal strain of the virus. Paul Tambyah, a senior consultant at the National University Hospital in Singapore and president-elect of the International Society of Infectious Diseases, has argued that the emergence and proliferation of what has been called the D614G mutation using parts of the entire world has coincided with a lowering of fatalities.
It is certainly true that most viruses have a tendency to become less virulent because they mutate. This helps them to survive and to go between hosts, anything that ceases to be possible once a fatality has occurred. Nevertheless, rising deaths figures in Spain and France do seem to indicate that covid-19 testing retains at least a great element of its deadly potential.
Phil Andrews is really a freelance English-language content writer specialising in articles, site content and blogging. He is mcdougal of The Best Year Of Our Lives, a historical fiction novel emerge 1976 about several teenagers growing up in a restless West London suburb near the River Thames.