Classified documents : France facing the possibility of a new terrorist wave

The Gallia Daily team recently had access to several documents, all written since the beheading of Professor Samuel Paty in Paris, documents that show that the French authorities are fearing a new major terrorist wave.

Some of these documents are classified (Diffusion Restreinte, Confidentiel Personnel, Confidentiel Défense) and therefore we cannot release them without exposing ourselves to serious prosecution. Nevertheless, we can give here the main information that appears when reading these documents.

Here is a non-exhaustive list: 

Internal notes of the DRHAT (HR service of the french army)

• The chef de corps (colonel commanding a regiment) are asked to keep their reserve companies on alert and to be prepared to mobilize part of their active workforce to reinforce the Vigipirate plan for the All Saints' Day, 11-November Tribute (WW1), Christmas, and New Year's Eve celebrations.
• Explicit reference is made to the need to have platoons that can be rapidly mobilized in order to better respond to a possible attack : this means that if a large-scale terrorist attack takes place and if the Etat de Siege (Emergency State) is declared, the Vigipirate plan must be able to be reinforced very quickly.
• It is asked to ensure that the reinforcement of the VIGIPIRATE reserves does not encroach on the organization of the Plan Guépard (this is an emergency plan allowing the deployment of a Quick Reaction Task Force in France or abroad). The Plan Guépard is normally only used to deal with an extremely serious threat, such as when in 2013 it was triggered and several hundred paratroopers and commandoes jumped on Timbuktu in Mali. It may also be used for emergency evacuation of French nationals abroad or to deal with large-scale terror attacks on national soil
• A reinforcement of the "Plan Cuirasse" is already planned: the Cuirasse plan is the plan to secure French military compounds. Explicit reference is made to the fact that in the next weeks military compounds could be "privileged targets" that must therefore be protected. 
• An appendix quotes another report to be read, to which we did not have access, but which seems to indicate the number of personnel to be kept mobilized for the protection of French embassies around the world (in the Arab world, of course). Note that normally the French Army does not protect embassies, this is the mission of the GIGN (special forces unit of the Gendarmerie). This appendix may imply that the French state fears attacks against French embassies abroad.

Notes from the Renseignement Territorial (Homeland Security) and the Gendarmerie 

• The reports that come from the different cells of the Renseignement Territorial (Homeland Security) suggest that the terrorist risk is very high and that the decapitation of the professor has the effect of an "unbridled" and "uninhibited" discourse on the part of some Muslims, a discourse encouraged by a victimization made possible in the context of the "anti-separatism" law (which aims to better control Islam in France). Explicit reference is made to a Muslim population that is on the whole very "permeable" to the narrative developed by several media, both international (such as the Turkish channel TRT) or national (Al Jazeera+ ?), media that tend to designate Muslims as victims of discrimination in France and attacked from all sides. The analogy with the media campaign on the Uighurs and the risk that French Muslims may live and represent themselves as the "Uighurs of Western Europe" or the "New Palestinians" is evoked.

• Reference is made to the militants of the far right and the far left, who can indirectly contribute to increasing the climate of tension, either through islamophobic remarks, tags on mosques, calls to hatred, the publication or posting in the streets of caricatures of Mohammed. These actions have the direct effect of reinforcing the feeling of stigmatization among Muslims and thus indirectly the willingness of some to take terrorist action to "defend Islam".

Comment by Lieutenant-Colonel T. who transmitted most of the information to us

"The terrorist risk has probably never been so great in France, but paradoxically in a very different form than the one we knew: it is no longer a purely religious terrorism as in the wave of 2015, but rather a political terrorism set up by religious people. 

The current climate since the attack on Paty [the beheaded professor] is complicated because on the one hand there is a French society and political authorities determined not to back down on their conception of secularism, and on the other hand there is a Muslim population for whom this conception of secularism is experienced, as such, as a threat, oppression and discrimination. A part of the Muslim population is locked into a victimizing software, with its obvious corollary which is that of "self-defense terrorism", that is to say the risk of seeing radical individuals commit attacks in the name of the defense of Muslims, perceived as politically oppressed, the caricatures here being both a symbol and a pretext.

If one were to play the macabre game of predicting future attacks, it is very likely that these will be carried out by lone wolves (and not cells) radicalized via the internet by the ambient victimization discourse I have just mentioned. These attacks will probably be spontaneous and opportunistic attacks, poorly thought out, but not necessarily without organization: as in the case of Conflans (the beheaded professor), it is conceivable that a lone wolf could be "remotely guided" from abroad, generally from the Iraqi-Syrian zone.

These possible attacks will target either symbols of French power perceived as guilty (police patrol, VIGIPIRATE patrol, prefecture, town hall), or civilians chosen at random but perceived as accomplices (supermarkets, waiting lines generated by health measures, subway passengers...). In terms of modus operandi, the use of a knive/hammer/sword is probably the most coherent option; the use of a ram vehicle also to a lesser extent. The use of a firearm stolen from personnel on duty is likely; but the use of an illegally acquired firearm remains unlikely.

It is, of course, entirely possible (and desirable!) that no attack will take place. Sanitary measures, by clearing the streets of people and restricting movement, ironically reduce the risk of terrorism. But they do not eliminate it, and I fear that France will be the victim of at least one new attack by the end of this year and several small scale attacks next year.

With a risk, of course, of escalation and aggravation depending on geopolitical developments: it is not impossible that some foreign powers (I am thinking of Turkey) will sponsor a much more organized terrorism, relying on their diaspora present on the territory. This will depend on the evolution of tensions in the Mediterranean, on the capacity of French diplomacy to disarm the "Palestinasation" of French Muslims in the eyes of the rest of the Islamic world, but this is outside my field of competence."

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