ake strong and re

the United States that “China will take strong and resolute measures to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The United States must assume full responsibility for any ensuing consequences.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry statements and the fiery language on Taiwan in the readout is a sign that Xi is desperate and is keen on preventing a direct confrontation with the United States over Taiwan.

August 1, 2022, is the 95th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the 20th party congress is scheduled to take place later this year. Xi is likely to be re-elected as General Secretary for another term.

In the midst of such important developments, he does not want to deal with the issue of Taiwan. He has to justify to the domestic audience that he is worthy of becoming the president for life, but Taiwan is one issue that could make him appear weak if he does not respond aggressively to growing exchanges between Taiwan and the United States.

However, even if Pelosi decides to visit Taiwan, it does not mean there will be a war. Xi won’t start a war that China can’t win. Probable reactions from China might include sanctioning Pelosi, more encroachment into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification zone, and escalation in China’s gray zone activities against Taiwan. It is unlikely that Pelosi’s visit, if it takes place at all, will lead to the fourth Taiwan Strait crisis.

No doubt that if China and the United States ever go to war, it will be over Taiwan. This is precisely the reason why the Chinese invasion of Taiwan is not imminent, not in the near future. Therefore, the Xi-Biden call was also an opportunity for Xi to persuade Biden to discourage Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

Taiwan in a bind

No major reaction to Pelosi’s potential visit has come out of Taiwan yet. While most commentaries and pundits have focused on the United States’ actions and China’s angry reactions, the commentary on what Taiwan wants is largely missing.

China’s aggression is mounting and what Taiwan needs is assurance and the support of its partners, particularly the United States. Pelosi not going ahead with the visit might embolden China to coerce Taiwan further. If the visit is called off, it would be disappointing for Taiwan specifically after the Xi-Biden call. Calling it off means the United States is bowing to China and paying attention to China’s sensitivities while neglecting Taiwan completely.

To some extent, it will have repercussions on Taiwan-United States ties as well. It might lead Taiwan to rethink the United States’ commitment. Even if the visit is symbolic, it will be important to show Taiwan it is not alone in its fight against an aggressor. Perhaps, this is the right time to seriously consider what Taiwan wants and make sure that Taiwan does not just become a pawn in the China-United States rivalry.