a Twitter thread from @jplotkin

1.

Can evolution promote complex cognition in decision making?

Yes -- in a changing environment.

New work from @tilman_andrew @VVLVasconcelos @akcayerol and myself.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2108.00047

2.

Economic and evolutionary theories of decision making make vastly different assumptions -- complete rationality versus no cognition whatsoever.

We study a middle ground between economic rationality and evolutionary myopia: the emergence of agents who make forecasts about future.

3.

Forecasters have an advantage, even when they pay a private cost to formulate forecasts.

Forecasters can invade a myopic population by natural selection, reaching stable co-existence with myopic types.

4.

Even a small portion of forecasters reduces otherwise wild environmental oscillations -- which increases the fitness of forecaster and myopic types alike.

And so evolution promotes the emergence of more complex cognitive types, which serve as a public good for all.

5.

Our analysis describes an evolutionary transition to increased cognition, and explains why multiple modes of decision making coexist.

This provide an evolutionary explanation for imperfect rationality maintained alongside strict myopia.

6.

We hope the study will stimulate more work on the evolutionary origins of variation in cognitive complexity -- and its implications for sound stewardship of natural resources.

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