a Twitter thread from @ZaidZamanHamid

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Lets do a battlefield assessment of the battle for Kabul.

It is an extremely deadly situation for the Americans particularly & their embassy staff. They know the war has been lost & now they only need a day to evacuate their staff & troops....but do they have that ONE day?

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2. The advance guards of the Taliban have entered the city. They are lightly armed fighting patrols & are only making probing attacks. They have released the prisoners from the Pul Charkhi prison, meaning that they are really inside the city.

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The main forces of Taliban are trying to enter the city from multiple prongs & have blocked all the exits/entrances of the city. This is where the US bombers are now attacking, a desperate attempt at slowing down the main advancing force of the Taliban.

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The Kabul regime is already in tatters...it has crumbled....most troops have changed uniforms and melted into the civilian population. Most of the government leadership have escaped to Central Asian states via land or helicopters. Morale in the Govt is rock bottom. Its over.

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Taliban have two prized targets....Airport & the embassy...& they plan to head straight towards them.

There is NO agreement between Taliban & US at the moment about the safe exit/evacuation of the US embassy staff & troops.

CIA failed again..it never expected such collapse!

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There is a desperate attempt by the US army to keep the airport open for the dozens of flights inbound to extricate the stranded & panicking embassy staff. Airport is still open but can be shut down anytime....There is a race against time as Taliban are advancing..

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Taliban do not have any desire to kill embassy staff. I know that much. But they would certainly want to grab Ashraf Ghani & NDS leadership for public execution.

US embassy staff & troops will be captured but for making a PR point & gaining higher ground in talks with US.

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As we write, US is desperately reaching out to Taliban leadership for a settlement for evacuation. I don't see that happening at that stage. Prisoners' will make a better bargaining chips for Taliban in subsequent negotiations for paying damages & war reparations.

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But again, this is the situation right now.....it can change anytime....

If Taliban suffer any serious losses in the US bombings at this stage, then the bets would be off, stakes would be raised & cost of the war would rise for the Americans.

It is a very volatile situation.

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