a Twitter thread from @DeekeTweak
@TwitterVid_bot1.
Take-Two Interactive's new earnings guidance forecasts may telegraph the release of Grand Theft Auto 6.
Analysts at two major securities firms (Jefferies and Cowen) predict #GTA6 could release by FY24 to coincide with this record guidance.
2.
Take-Two's recent guidance sees 14% CAGR from FY21 to FY24.
That's driven by the combine of Zynga and Take-Two, and represents $9 billion in net bookings in FY24.
It's worth noting that it took Take-Two five years to achieve the current 17% CAGR between FY17 - FY21.
3.
As Cowen and Jefferies rightly note, there's really only one powerhouse that can drive those kinds of numbers: Rockstar Games.
That goes double for Grand Theft Auto.
For reference, #GTAV has earned nearly $7 billion in revenues since its release in September 2013.
4.
The Grand Theft Auto franchise is absolutely integral to Take-Two's quarterly earnings.
GTA V has made over $100 million every quarter since Q4 FY15 and has accounted for as little as 13% and as high as 80% of $TTWO's quarterly net revenues.
5.
Here's a closer look at GTA's annual net revenues since 2010.
6.
Take-Two may have telegraphed GTA VI's release way back in May 2021.
The company outlined incremental growth guidance in the periods from FY21 to FY24; that is, TTWO expects FY22 to beat FY21, FY23 to beat FY22, and FY24 to beat FY23.
This is driven in part by its new slate.
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