Wong Betting Spreads

Wong Betting Spreads
Home > Blog > 7 Facts About Wong Strategy in NFL Teaser Betting That Can Help You Profit

if you liked the Miami Dolphins as (-3) favorites over the New York Jets, and the Under on a total of 49 points, backing a basic 6-point teaser would work as follows. By adjusting the spread 6 points in your favor, you’d now have Miami at (+3), while your total bet would now be Under 55 points.

But like I said… even though I knew how teasers worked, I didn’t know the optimal strategy needed to turn them into consistent money makers.

These so-called “key” numbers are 3 and 7 because the overwhelming bulk of scoring plays on the gridiron will be either field goals (3 points) or touchdowns (7 points with a successful extra point). And as you might have noticed during your own experience betting football, most final scores are indeed decided by these key numbers (21-14, 31-28, etc.).

Experienced oddsmakers will set a big game’s line right at the key number, then move it off slightly to attract equal action on both sides. OK then, now that you know how key numbers work, let’s dive into their relevancy to teasers within the Wong Strategy construct.

A Ph.D. student by the name of John Ferguson was immersed in the world of finance at Stanford University. Ferguson also had a penchant for blackjack, one driven by his suspicion that savvy players could gain an edge over the house.

Ferguson came up with an ingenious method of increasing his edge. Rather than play and lose money until a favorable count arrived, Ferguson simply stood nearby and inconspicuously maintained his running count. Then, when he knew the deck was constructed to provide an edge, he hopped in the game and made a few large wagers.

And in 2001, his “Sharp Sports Betting” became the first forum to explore an optimal strategy for teasers.

But as the method proved to be highly effective, bookmakers responded by inflating the vig to (-120). These days, many online sportsbooks won’t even let you put together the type of sharp teasers Wong discovered.

Team

New Orleans Saints:
Baltimore Ravens:
Buffalo Bills:
Kansas City Chiefs:
Chicago Bears:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Houston Texans:
Indianapolis Colts:
Los Angeles Chargers:
Green Bay Packers:
Los Angeles Rams:
Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles:)
Seattle Seahawks:
Tennessee Titans:
Dallas Cowboys:
Denver Broncos:
Miami Dolphins:
Cleveland Browns:
Minnesota Vikings:
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Washington Football Team:
New England Patriots:
San Francisco 49ers:
Cincinnati Bengals:
New York Giants:
Atlanta Falcons:
Carolina Panthers:
Arizona Cardinals:
Las Vegas Raiders:
New York Jets:
Jacksonville Jaguars:

Cover Rate

38-8 (.826)
39-9 (.813)
39-9 (.813)
38-10 (.792)
38-10 (.792)
36-11 (.766)
36-12 (.750)
36-12 (.750)
36-12 (.750)
35-12 (.745)
35-13 (.729)
34-13 (.723)
34-13 (.723)
37-11 (.771)
32-13 (.711)
34-14 (.708)
34-14, (.708)
34-14 (.708)
33-14 (.702)
33-14 (.702)
33-14 (.702)
32-14 (.696)
33-15 (.687)
33-15 (.687)
32-15 (.681)
32-15 (.681)
31-17 (.646)
29-16 (.644)
30-17 (.638)
29-18 (.617)
29-19 (.604)
26-21 (.553)

And the best NFL squads have reeled off gaudy cover rates well over the 75 percent plateau.

Wong advises bettors to avoid any game with a total of 50 points or higher – even when the point spread fits his stated parameters. Based on his research, Wong reveals that games tagged with 50+ point totals are inherently more unpredictable, as both teams are expected to score in bunches.

You don’t have much in the way of Wong teasers to work with, don’t panic. It can be all too tempting to simply try a two-team, 6-point teaser using non-Wong starting spreads, but you’re only doing the books a favor at that point.

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Sportsbook of the Month September 2022
For far too many years during my time as a sports betting enthusiast, I was making a crucial error whenever I took a “teaser” ticket during the NFL season. For folks who aren’t familiar with teaser bets , this clever method of wagering allows the bettor to tilt point spreads and/or Over-Under totals in their own favor.
Just like parlays , teasers must be linked together with two more sides, and all sides must win (or at least push) to cash the ticket.
Fortunately, a friend and professional handicapper let me in on a little secret known as “Wong Strategy.” The approach has worked wonders for my NFL betting bankroll, so check out the list below to harness the power of the Wong teaser strategy.
In the rough and tumble world of football handicapping, certain point spreads are considered to be much more important than others.
Sharp bettors and bookmakers alike have long known the inherent value of key numbers. Bettors hunt for the margins, pouncing on (-2.5 / -6.5) favorites or (+3.5 / +7.5) underdogs, knowing that the extra half-point “hook” puts them on the right side of a key number.
According to legendary game theory analyst Stanford Wong (more on him in a minute), 6-point teasers work best when the bettor moves a line through not one but two key numbers. That is to say, you’ll want to look for point spreads where a 6-point adjustment moves the line through the 3 and the 7.
Thus, when you’re eyeing a favorite, you’ll need to start with a spread of (-7.5), (-8), or (-8.5). From there, sliding the line 6 points in your favor takes you through both key numbers, as shown below:
The only opening lines on a favorite that work for Wong Strategy teasers are (-7.5), (-8), and (-8.5). When you choose to tease other spreads, such as (-6) or (-10), you simply can’t cross through both key numbers.
And according to Wong, this means the added “juice” of (-120) you pay for the privilege of a two-team, 6-point teaser just isn’t worth the trouble. Wong also uses the same guidelines for teasing dogs too, so you’ll by looking for starting spreads of (+1.5), (+2), and (+2.5) only.
From there, adding 6 points to your side moves you through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Most longtime gambling fans have heard of Stanford Wong, and for a good reason…
Ferguson had devoured the first treatise on blackjack basic strategy, Edward O. Thorp’s “Beat the Dealer” (1962), and he was eager to expand on Thorp’s theories. Soon enough, Ferguson was ditching class and hitting Las Vegas casinos to try his hand at counting cards.
Ferguson’s ideas were compiled within “Professional Blackjack” (1975), which was published under the pen name “Stanford Wong.” And if you’ve ever noticed the now ubiquitous placards which proclaim “No Mid-Shoe Entry” adorning every blackjack table in Sin City, just remember it was the success of “Wonging” which compelled casinos to protect their bottom line.
After “Professional Blackjack” made him a household name among the gambling set, Wong published a long lineup of strategy manuals running the gamut.
It was this book which first introduced bettors to the notion that cutting across both key numbers offered the highest level of expected value over the long run.
In fact, the casinos were once again forced to contend with Wong’s insights. Before he taught Wong Strategy to the world, 6-point teasers using two sides were offered with a standard “vig” of (-110).
And when they do, the bets come with strings attached, such as any side ending in a push causing the ticket to lose out altogether.
According to Wong, his style of teaser betting should only be applied to the NFL– and not the college game.
This is based on a number of differences between the two sports, but Wong states that college football’s lack of parity and proliferation of double-digit point spreads are most important. Essentially, college football has too many terrible teams taking on titans laying lines like (-28), rendering Wong Strategy obsolete.
But in the NFL, on the other hand, the era of perpetual parity ensures that every team has a fighting chance on any given Sunday. Don’t take my word for it though, just check out the cover rate win/loss records for every NFL team – when included in a 6-point teaser – between 2018-2020:
As you can see, even the worst NFL teams still sport winning records when benefiting from a 6-point tease.
The data above makes it clear… sticking to the NFL when utilizing Wong Strategy is the most effective way to turn teaser tickets into cash.
Buried in Wong’s analysis of two-team, 6-point teasers is an interesting nugget regarding Over-Under totals .
With that in mind, be sure to check out the total for any game you’re handicapping with Wong Strategy. The spreads can fit the bill, but unless the total is set at 49 points or lower, you won’t extract the same level of expected value.
Because bettors need a specific range of starting lines to construct a Wong Strategy teaser, you might not see very many on the slate from Sunday to Sunday.
Remember, the entire crux of Wong’s intrepid insights into teaser strategy stems from moving through both key numbers. Only getting through the 3 or 7, but not both, just isn’t good enough for Wong’s exacting standards.
When I first learned about the Wong Strategy for NFL teaser betting, sufficed to say it was a world-changing revelation. Before that, I was simply flying blind while constructing my weekly slate of teaser tickets.
Sometimes I’d have three or four sides linked together, and in others I wasn’t even moving through one key number, let alone both. All in all, I was just another “square” bettor who the sportsbooks feasted on all through the Fall football season.
Today, however, my records show a sharp uptick in profitability when I place teaser bets. And I’m willing to wager yours will, too, provided you stick to the wisdom handed down by Wong himself.
Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.
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Last Updated:
Sep 2, 2022 10:17 AM ET

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Approaching teasers for the 2022-23 NFL season

What is the Wong teaser in football?

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Updated Wong Teasers went 5-1 on the season last year.
Have you ever looked at a sportsbook’s NFL lines and noticed something like the below?
And then you wondered why those lines are displayed instead of a more traditional and evenly priced option under a dropdown menu like Team B +7.5 (-110) / Team A -7.5 (-110)?
Sure, it makes sense to see a price like that listed for key numbers , but you’ll often see it out on non-key numbers a few times across a slate. The reason for it is teaser protection on the sportsbook’s behalf.
•Key traditional rules still stand today (not crossing zero, crossing key numbers, etc.)
•Totals remain to be a suboptimal way to play teasers
•The previously highly profitable Wong Teasers require some critical updates
•Updated Wong Teasers went 5-1 on the season last year.
For the uninitiated, a teaser is a combo bet (like a parlay) with fixed odds (unlike a parlay). You pick a certain number of points and a certain number of teams, and each spread is moved in your favor by the select
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Wong Betting Spreads

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