Will Trump Save TikTok? Some Experts Have Their Doubts.

The popular social media app TikTok may soon be banned in the U.S. following a Friday decision from a federal appeals court. Though President-elect Donald Trump came out against shutting down the app on the campaign trail, experts expressed doubts in his ability to halt a ban.

Trump could opt not to enforce a ban by telling Apple, Google, and TikTok's other service providers that he will not punish them for keeping TikTok up and running, according to Sarah Bauerle Danzman, an associate professor of international studies at Indiana University Bloomington. But such a move may not keep the lights on at TikTok.

"This could set up a legal battle, and the app stores likely do not feel comfortable being in violation of the law even if Trump says he won't enforce it," she told Barron's.

Congress passed a bipartisan bill in April that will require TikTok's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell the app or face a ban. The company has said it will not sell. The decision on Friday sets up a Jan. 19 deadline before a ban would go into effect.

The Jan. 19 deadline is the last day before Trump steps into the Oval Office. Though he sought to ban the app during his first presidency, Trump later came out in support of the app staying up in the U.S.

"For all of those that want to save TikTok, in America, vote for Trump... We're not doing anything with TikTok, but the other side's going to close it up," he said in a video on his social media platform, Truth Social, in September.

Trump has not followed up on that post in the wake of the latest decision. His cabinet nominees, including Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and Brendan Carr for Federal Communications Commission chair, have supported banning TikTok due to national security concerns.

The Trump transition team did not return Barron's request for comment. Even if he wanted to, whether Trump can do anything to save the app is a different story.

In a note to clients, BTIG director of policy research Isaac Boltansky described Trump's options to act as "limited," pointing to the kind of pressure companies would be under to comply with the law, even if the Department of Justice says it will not enforce it.

"Conceptually, he could direct the DOJ to not enforce the law's penalties, but our sense is that there would still be enormous pressure to comply with the law," Boltansky wrote. "Beyond that, Congress is highly unlikely to reverse the statute."

Apple and Google representatives did not immediately return Barron's request for comment on such a scenario.

TikTok is expected to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court and request a stay. Boltansky wrote that he's heard arguments that if the Supreme Court delays a ban while it hears an appeal, Trump could use the time to negotiate a sale with China as part of broader tariff conversations.

"In that scenario, perhaps China blesses the sale of TikTok as part of broader trade negotiation concessions," Boltansky wrote. "This concept feels like more of a storyline in a novel than a real-world possibility, but it is worth mentioning nonetheless."

A TikTok spokesperson previously said in a statement to Barron's that the "Supreme Court has an established historical record of protecting Americans' right to free speech, and we expect they will do just that on this important constitutional issue."

If TikTok is out of the picture, that would mean users and advertisers alike would need to spend their TikTok time and money elsewhere. That could drive attention and activity to Meta Platforms' Instagram, Alphabet's YouTube, and Snap's Snapchat.

Because of its relatively smaller size, Snap in particular could stand to see significant growth from a shift in spending from TikTok to other apps, according to Brian Wieser, founder of strategic advisory firm Madison & Wall and a former executive at WPP's ad buying unit GroupM.

"The benefits to Snap in particular will be significant," Wieser told Barron's. "Relatively, they're going to be a much bigger beneficiary. And because they're a standalone public company, it'll be way more evident. So I'm kind of surprised that Snap didn't advance more."

Shares of Meta, Alphabet, and Snap were only up between 1% and 2% in the wake of the decision on Friday. Wieser noted that Wall Street, like advertisers who haven't yet shifted spending away from TikTok, may not have bought in completely into the idea that the app will be banned next month.

Count Wedbush analyst Dan Ives among the doubters. He told Barron's he sees a 1% chance of a ban happening

"We believe there is a better chance of me playing in the NFL than a TikTok ban," Ives says. "Trump will use executive powers to squash this and that is the view of many on the Street. Any noise from this is a benefit to Meta and Google but this will be temporary as we see no true threat to a TikTok ban despite legal drama."

If that's the case, the clock is ticking