Why's the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China (FAPRC) playing nice to the US recently?

#OpinionArticle #NganShunKau 

(10 Jul) Recently, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) held an seminar about framework of foreign affairs, including WANG Yi who was the former Vice Foreign Minister; all expressed soft and pleasure gesture to United Stated (US).  It’s well-known that CCP was tricky on its foreign affairs communication, its attitude could reflect the shift of political benefit practically.

Some interpreted this as CCP found it went too far on its “wolf warrior” diplomacy and would like to set back a while, which is only a wishful thinking.  CCP foreign affairs policy has formed its foundation of a relationship with US in hostility.  It is only a strategic consideration of the timing to put a bet or observe for opportunity, which has no correlation with its country policy.

Why CCP release an signal of compromised? One and only reason is: nothing is happening in Hong Kong locally due to National Security legislation Law; while reactions of US and Western Countries seem not that fierce up now.  Basically, US has not yet made a move, British giving more benefits to BNO holders is expected, Canada and Australia stopping the extradition temporary was a must indeed.  Because if two countries maintain the extradition, Hong Kong protesters who asked Canada & Australia for asylum might be sent back to Mainland China; which would only lead to the Government of Canada & Australia being blamed internationally.

Will US react fiercely against Hong Kong National Security Law?  Unclear currently, it’s absolutely impossible US has no reaction, the level of reaction depends on Trump’s arrangement.  It may come with a bomb, or react gradually, delaying the practical reaction to September or October could benefit the president election in US.  Regarding the measures of financial sanction released by these two days,  it is mild for Hong Kong and Mainland China; but it might hurt US itself.  In view of such reaction, US might only want to create the noise without imposing the last resort.  After all, US has to consider the benefit of US citizens when US tries to relieve Hong Kong’s problem.

The confirmation of legislating National Security Law in Hong Kong, the greatest consideration from CCP now is to do their best to handle it stably, leading to the acceptance of fact towards National Security Law imposed in Hong Kong.  That means, CCP forcedly imposes the Law without paying for painful price: provided that the establishment of National Security Law, CCP could control Hong Kong by utilizing it; provided that at the initial implementation of the Law, sanction from western countries would not overdo, CCP would think the Law was successfully accomplished in evil purpose, leaving non-current issues to the future.

The most important thing for CCP now is to make US people to feel better, not to fight heavily against CCP.  Other western countries would tolerate provided that US had tolerated.  So that at this moment, the most important thing is to not put fire on oil, not to stir up hostility with the US; even US thinks CCP handled Hong Kong aggressively, but CCP was rational on its relationship with US.

That means: making the Law comes true, US temporarily tolerates and won’t utilize the Law to make noise in the future, CCP has overcome this challenge with a hope of suppressing the fights of HongKongers.

Can CCP’s tricky foreign affairs work? Depending on how US Government evaluate Hong Kong.  National Security Law has completely subverted Hong Kong, destroying the “Basic Law”, killing one-country-two-system; If US accepts these terms, CCP would still protect US Corporates’ benefit in Hong Kong, as it’s a win-win situation for both US and CCP if US Organizations are still staying and making money in Hong Kong.

Yet, US would lost its propriety of defending universal valuedue to the above reasons, expose its weakness when fighting with CCP by empty words with no action, also be seen thoroughly by other Unions Countries; US would be more difficult to reunion other countries when coping with CCP in a long run.

CCP is just playing US via its gimmick of unseeable soft and hard attitudes, to evaluate whether US is serious in fights with China.US’s concession on Hong Kong affairs would tear off the marks with exposure of “paper tiger”, CCP could play US with absolutes control in the future.  So thatif US cannot manage Hong Kong affairs well, it could be more difficult to deal with other problems.

US is an old experienced gangster on foreign affairs, Writer speculated US would not fall into the CCP trap. Nowadays, If US is still having unrealistic hope on CCP, falling of empire region (US) would be the destination.

US will not defend HongKong for no reason, protecting Hong Kong purely due to HongKongers chasing for universal value; solely due to Hong Kong has international strategic meaning to US. The former reason requires our persistent belief to fight for the last; later one depends on US evaluation of its own benefits.  To conclude, Writer is still optimistic to the development of international aspects.

FAPRC expressed its friendless to US, not to adjust its relationship with US, but CCP wants the Law “landed in HK” safely as soon as possible.  However, US views National Security Law as its future relationship with CCP, instead of an single event.  Even though CCP seems successfully imposing the Law in Hong Kong now, US can still utilize Hong Kong affairs to control its relationship with CCP, the Law cannot “landed safely” in HongKong, neither in US, nor the World indeed.

Source: Ngan, Shun-kau's Faceboook

Translated by: Hong Kong Echo

#nationalsecuritylaw #US #China #wolfwarrior #diplomacy #foreignaffairs #onecountrytwosystems #FAPRC