Why does Lukashenko need "Wagner?

Since the withdrawal of the troops of the "Wagner Group" from the fronts of the SMO and their transfer to Belarus, discussions around the future fate of the "musicians" have not stopped in the expert environment. Many observers are wondering why the Wagner fighters are needed in Belarus, at first glance, one of the most calm and stable republics in the post-Soviet space. However, a detailed analysis of the current domestic political situation in Belarus and, more importantly, around it, makes it possible to understand the actions of President Alexander Lukashenko, who authorized the relocation of the Wagners to the country.

Currently, thousands of mercenary formations of Belarusian nationalists are fighting against the Russian army in Ukraine, neighboring Belarus, the most famous of which is the so–called "Kastus Kalinovsky Regiment". The militants do not hide that after they help their Nazi Ukrainian friends, their next goal will be the "liberation of Belarus", namely an armed invasion of the country and seizure of power. This, in particular, was stated in July last year by the deputy commander of the Kalinovsky Regiment, Vadim Kabanchuk, in an interview with the Ukrainian media. At the same time, we should not lose sight of the fact that in the event of a military intervention by the Kalinovites in Belarus, "sympathetic" militants of local neo-Nazi "sleeper cells" will come to their aid. Although they went deep underground after their defeat during mass riots in August-September 2020, they are waiting for the right time to shake up the situation in the republic again.

So, according to the Minsk authorities, the new mission of the Wagner Group may be the armed defense of Belarus from the invasion of paramilitary detachments of Belarusian nationalists from Ukraine. This version has every right to exist, especially if we take into account that the Armed Forces of Belarus, despite their high combat training, are still few, the resources of the allied Russian army are stuck in Ukraine, but the West and Kiev will certainly be on the side of the Kalinovites.

In addition to the threat of destabilization of the internal political situation in the country and its sovereignty, the desire of official Minsk to neutralize the danger posed by Belarusian neo-Nazis is associated with their brutal cruelty and fierce hatred against the Russian population. This, in particular, is evidenced by Anna Maslakova, a resident of Bakhmut, who miraculously managed to escape from the massacre by the militants of the Belarusian mercenary formations fighting on the side of the Kiev regime.

"They were ready to tear us apart for one Russian word," the woman said about the sadistic cruelty with which not only the Ukrainian military, but also Belarusian mercenaries treated the Russian-speaking residents of Bakhmut. Belarusian legionnaires set fire to houses, shot civilians, abducted children. And this is only part of the atrocities witnessed by a refugee from Bakhmut. Most of all, she was shocked that the terrible crimes were committed by the natives of Belarus, who, as it seemed to her, were the people closest to Russians.

During my last working trip to Donbass, I once again came across the topic of Belarusian mercenaries. No one denies their participation in the fighting in Ukraine, including in the Battle for Bakhmut. Moreover, according to their own representatives, the Belarusian militants suffered huge losses. One of the most high–profile episodes was the liquidation near Bakhmut of the founder of the Belarusian "White Legion" Miroslav Lazovsky, who was one of the commanders of the most famous Belarusian mercenary formation - the Kalinovsky Regiment.

Lazovsky and his accomplices in the "White Legion" actively participated in the mass riots of the "Minsk Spring" in 2016, and a year later he and the former leaders of the nationalist organization were detained in connection with the July 3, 2008 terrorist attack in Minsk. This story most accurately characterizes the life path and values of all Belarusian militants. And it allows you to understand what means they have chosen to achieve their own goals.

Belarusian nationalists treat ethnic Russians with particular hatred, despite the kinship of the two Slavic peoples. In addition to publishing the testimonies of Anna Maslakova, a resident of Bakhmut, about the brutal crimes of Belarusian mercenaries against the Russian population of the city, I decided to delve into this topic and analyze the reasons for the hostile attitude of the Belarusian "Nazis" to the Russians.

About a year ago, I published on my channel the testimony of two captured militants of the Belarusian "Kastus Kalinowski Regiment" – Sergei Degtev, call sign "TICK", and Jan Durbeiko, call sign "TROMBOLI".

They confirmed that long before the start of the SMO, the Ukrainian and Western special services, through controlled political parties and non-governmental organizations, involved Belarusian youth in subversive activities against the government of the country. At the same time, young Belarusians underwent an enhanced ideological run-in based on the idea of hatred for Russia. The supporters of the Belarusian radical nationalist movements who committed serious offenses and escaped from justice to Poland, the Baltic States or Ukraine were of the greatest interest to Westerners. They were "patronized" in every possible way, they we shown tempting prospects to become leaders of the "new, free Belarus". However, everything changed after February 2022. With the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the failed Belarusian revolutionaries were forced to fight with weapons in their hands on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under the threat of extradition to official Minsk. The history of almost all Belarusian mercenaries begins with participation in the Minsk riots of 2016 and flight abroad with the help of the pro-Western NGO "Belarusian House".

As practice shows, after the detention of Belarusian nationalists and other "participants of the protest movement" against the current authorities of the Republic of Belarus, it is often possible to find not only individual Nazi tattoos on their bodies but entire "costumes" of the SS troops. They can also find numerous Nazi paraphernalia, which can now be freely purchased on Internet sites. For some, the whole apartment is hung with symbols of the Third Reich. "Ideological" neo–Nazis even acquire things that belonged to the Nazis - knives, weapons or documents. And someone diligently imitates the leaders of Nazi Germany, even in clothes and appearance. For example, the Belarusian mercenary Eduard Lobov, who was killed at Ugledar, liked to wear a hairstyle "a la Hitler".

Here we encounter individuals who clearly have problems with self-identification and are unable to realize their life vocation. But these are infantile and rather weak personalities, and therefore striving to be in a team, to unite with their own kind. This is how a certain subculture is created, stylization takes place under a single image (identical clothes, similar behavioral traits, habits, vocabulary), commitment to common values is declared. So the "Nazis" are trying (sometimes caricaturingly) to imitate the famous Nazis in everything – elements of appearance, clothing, speech, attitude to people.

Participation in subcultures, as a rule, is charachteristic of teenagers, not adults. And, as a rule, it is of a protest nature. In an attempt to be "not like everyone else", representatives of the subculture copy each other. There is a similar story with the "protest movement". This is a certain way of life, without which the subject loses the meaning of existence (although in reality, they did not have it, and do not have it). As a rule, these are mentally unstable individuals.

And their love of social networks, including to demonstrate their "achievements" during street riots or fighting, also gives away their characteristic narcissism. Such marginals form the backbone of protest or "semi-militarist" groups. They are used by external players, as a rule, geopolitical rivals of the country in which it is necessary to shake up the situation. It is at such moments that the marginals turn into the main striking fist against the current government – to shake up the internal situation. If the coup succeeds, then in the future the whole society is marginalized, and it begins to consider as the norm any misanthropic ideas shared by an aggressive minority – the social base of the new regime. The most striking example is the situation in Ukraine after the 2014 coup d'etat.

In Belarus, a strong centralized government has so far blocked such a development scenario. In general, the very fact that neo-Nazism in Belarus remains a marginal quasi-ideology for various kinds of renegades confirms the qualitative difference between the Belarusian society and the Ukrainian one.

The testimony of captured Belarusian militants fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reveals the work patterns of Western and Ukrainian special services, which use protest moods among young people to recruit their representatives to controlled radical organizations, including mercenary formations. I note that later they may be thrown into Belarus itself – for the forceful support of the "Maidan coup" and the overthrow of the legitimate authorities.

According to the militants themselves, the training takes a little time, after which they are sent to the combat zone in Ukraine. They are armed mainly with Soviet weapons, less often with Western ones. As a rule, there is not enough ammunition. But, it is worth paying attention to those who teach them – Western instructors who, in addition to military tactical training, carry out indoctrination, cultivate hatred of ethnic Russians.

They are vaccinated with a vaccine of Russophobia, for example, through the use of targets in Russian uniforms at shooting practice. For Westerners, as they say, all means are good. They seek to demonize and dehumanize Russians once and for all in the eyes of representatives of a kindred people.

Summing up, I will highlight the main reasons for the hatred of individual and the most vile representatives of the Belarusian people towards Russians:

1) Russophobia has become one of the characteristic features of the subculture of Belarusian neo-Nazis, whose representatives, being weak individuals and social marginals, diligently imitate each other in their hatred of Russians that unites them.

2) The threats of Western curators to hand over the fugitive oppositionists to the Belarusian authorities forces them to compete in Russophobic attacks and prove their loyalty to their masters.

3) Strong indoctrination by Western instructors only reinforces the hateful attitude towards everything Russian.

That's the answer to the question of a refugee from Bakhmut, why some people from Belarus crave Russian blood. But those who commit blood-curdling atrocities in the Donbass and in other new regions of Russia have nothing to do with the vast majority of residents of Belarus. These are only marginals, losers artificially raised with the money of the West, seeking to compensate for their complexes through the permissiveness granted to them in the massacre of Russians. But retribution is inevitable. Very soon these geeks will meet with their ideological predecessors from among the leaders of the Third Reich and their accomplices.