Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine? Experts Explain Putin Motives, Politics

Russia accused Kyiv of downing a large military transport plane carrying Ukrainian prisoners of war to an exchange on Wednesday, after a crash in the Belgorod region that killed all 74 people onboard. "The guns are talking now, but the path of dialogue must always remain open," said UN Secretary General António Guterres. President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin on the phone. And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire. Russian forces may try to push again along the entire front, at least to secure all of the Donbas region.

A former US presidential advisor on Russia, Graham also said that Ukraine's territory aided Russia's economic strength throughout its history, including supplying much of the Russian Empire's coal, steel, and iron from the 19th century. Belarus is already essentially a Russian puppet state, making a military invasion of it almost pointless, whereas Ukraine has increasingly aligned itself with the West in recent years. Hall said Russia sees Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, as the "mother of Russian cities," and for Putin he can't have that being outside his own country. He advocates for reforming the UN security council to “protect the world from abusive veto-users” as well as reform of the Rome statute that founded the international criminal court to give it jurisdiction over crimes of aggression. “It’s the time when you’re meant to be with your family and this is going to be the second year without him, unless there is a miracle. I’m looking towards the holiday period with fear,” she told Shaun Walker.

When they first invaded, Russia's bigger and more powerful army was expected to have a much greater impact, but so far, the Ukrainian forces have managed to push them back in lots of areas. Newsround has travelled to Ukraine to meet some of the young people affected by the war. We visited schools where air raid sirens and sheltering in underground classrooms are now a part of children's everyday lives. On 24 February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered his army to forcefully cross the border and invade neighbouring Ukraine. Nato says its forces are on standby and more ships and fighter jets are being sent to the region.

Conscription requires young men and women to serve for a limited time in uniform. It means that some of the population will have had some military training - and can then be assigned to reserve units should war break out. A number of European countries also rehearse for civil emergencies - with exercises that involve ordinary citizens as well as the military. As Gen Sir Patrick Sanders stated several times in his speech on Wednesday, "Ukraine really matters". Russia's ambitions, he said, were not just about seizing territory but "about defeating our system and way of life politically, psychologically and symbolically". He highlighted numerous threats, but there is one common thread amid all these warnings - Russia.

Russia-Ukraine crisis

Defense analysts argue that neither side would want to go into negotiations unless they're in a position of strength and able to dictate terms. Ukrainian pilots are beginning their training on the jets now but it could be a number of months before they're deployed in Ukraine. https://euronewstop.co.uk/if-russia-invades-ukraine-what-will-happen-in-uk.html . is not providing F-16s to Ukraine but has authorized allies to provide their own jets.

• But if Ukraine’s experience is anything to go by, the threat posed by a common enemy could have a unifying effect.
• If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced.
• Kyiv’s politicians used to be notoriously fractious – not least because of divisions between the pro and anti-Russian camps.
• The US and its European allies have responded to Putin’s aggression with unprecedented sanctions, but have no plans to send troops to Ukraine, for good reason.

Finland, Nato's newest member and a country which has an 800-mile border with Russia, has wider conscription. Around 80% of the male population complete some form of military service. Refusal can mean a jail sentence, though there is the option of civilian service out of uniform too.

Russia denies it is preparing for an invasion and accuses Nato of upping its activity in the region. Streams of cars have been seen leaving major cities and are queuing to cross borders into neighbouring countries. About 10 civilians are believed to have been killed, including six in an air strike in Brovary near the capital Kyiv. A man was also killed in shelling outside the major eastern city of Kharkiv. In that response, the US and NATO rejected any deal on NATO membership, but leaked documents suggest the potential for new arms control agreements and increased transparency in terms of where NATO weapons and troops are stationed in Eastern Europe. Those divisions — which Washington is trying very hard to keep contained — may embolden Putin.

Russia lacks the equipment and trained manpower to launch a strategic offensive until spring 2025, at the earliest. For democracies, long-term consensus in support for war has always been more complicated than for autocrats with no accountability. We asked three military analysts how they think events may unfold in the coming 12 months.

• While the official said it was hard to say these were all strategically related, it showed that there was an issue on Eastern Europe's eastern flank.
• President Volodomyr Zelensky has admitted his country's spring offensive has not been the success he hoped.
• President Putin recognises the independence of the two Russian-backed separatists areas in eastern Ukraine and says troops will be sent to support them.
• Last week, another senior Nato military chief said countries needed to be on alert "and expect the unexpected".
• Even during the London Blitz in 1941, nearly 5,000 looting cases came before the Old Bailey.

Talk of wider war in Europe and the potential need for mass mobilisation or a "citizen army" may sound alarming. But the head of the British Army Gen Sir Patrick Sanders is not alone in issuing a national call to prepare for a major conflict on European soil. But the senior Western intelligence official warned that "military options are highly likely on the table in the Kremlin" if Russia's demands are not satisfied. If Russia did decide to invade Ukraine, the senior Western intelligence official said large numbers of people would be displaced. A senior Western intelligence official has warned that if Russia decides to invade Ukraine, a conflict could spill over further into Europe.