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What Is A Point Spread?
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Point spread betting is the most popular form of sports betting. The vast majority of sports wagers use a point spread thanks to the popularity of football and basketball. Even though this type of betting is so popular, it may take awhile to understand.
The point spread is sometimes known as an equalizer for sportsbook operators. All teams aren’t created equally, so sportsbooks can create a point spread for a game so that each team playing has an almost even chance of winning the game. In a way, the point spread will even the field for both teams.
The point spread gives a reason for bettors to risk money on both teams. The better team playing in the game is considered favorite. They have to win by the point spread offered by the sportsbook. The favorite in a game is listed as being minus (-) the point spread.
The worse of the teams playing in the game is called the underdog. The bettor wins if this team wins the game outright or loses by an amount smaller than the point spread. The underdog in a game is listed as being plus (+) the point spread.
Let’s use this past Super Bowl between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs as an example.
Using this example, the Chiefs were 3-point favorites over the Buccaneers. The Chiefs needed to win by 4 or more points to cover the spread.
Likewise, the Buccaneers were 3-point underdogs. That means the Buccaneers needed to win the game outright or not lose the contest by 4 points or more. At Chiefs -3, if they won by exactly 3 points, the betting result would have been a “push” and bettors for both sides would have gotten their wagers refunded.
The Buccaneers pulled off the upset, winning by a score of 31-9, and rewarded bettors who backed them at +3.
Point spreads are usually set with -110 odds, but pricing often fluctuates at online sportsbooks. This is the sportsbook operators’ house edge. The odds guarantee the sportsbook operator will see a little money over time. When the odds are set at -110, the bettor must wager $110 to win $100 (or $11 to win $10).
The odds on a point spread are most commonly known as the vigorish or “vig” for the sportsbook. You might hear this small profit margin for the sportsbook called the “juice” by some sports bettors.
A “pick em” (sometimes seen as “pick”) is when the teams have a point spread of zero, meaning neither team is favored. In this instance, you’re essentially picking moneyline and your bet will be determined on the winner alone.
A spread of minus-seven (-7) means that a is favored to win the game by a touchdown (technically, a touchdown and the extra point). A team favored by -7 must win the game by eight or more points to win the bet. If the team wins by seven, the result is a “push” and the bet is refunded.
A spread of +7 means the team must win the game or lose by fewer than seven points to win the bet. A loss by seven would result in a push.
A -3 spread means that the favorite must win by more than a field goal to win the wager. A three-point win would result in a push and the sportsbook would refund the wager.
A spread of +3 means the team listed as the underdog must win the game or lose by fewer than three points to cash the bet. A three-point loss would be graded as a push by the sportsbook and the bet would be refunded.
In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens led the NFL in point differential per game at +13.7 points; the Miami Dolphins ranked last in the NFL in point differential per game at -11.7. Even Kansas City– known for their explosive offense– had an average point differential in 2019 of just 9.7 points. The net point differential in the NFL is -14.1, or -0.9 points per game. Basically, the talent differential in the NFL is so minute that even mismatched teams often draw games within a score of each other.
NFL spreads are most commonly between one point and four, with six being a heavy favorite and extremes coming out around 15-20 point favors. (For those wondering, the 1941 Chicago Bears hold the NFL record of point differential at +15.7 points per game. Conversely, Ohio State had a +33.1 average point differential in 2019.)
Sportsbook operators often aim to have equal money on both sides of a point spread. When the money is exactly split the sportsbook operator will see the exact vigorish as their profit margin. If all things are equal over time this will maximize how much money the sportsbook operator can make.
In an effort to have equal money on both sides of a wager, the sportsbook operator will move the point spread to attract money on the side that customers aren’t betting on. The odds for a point spread might change before the actual point spread. There are certain point spread numbers, like 3 and 7 in football, the sportsbook operators would like to avoid moving away from since the final score margin falls on these two numbers most often.
For example, if a lot more money is wagered on the New England Patriots -3, the vig may shift from -112 to -115 and -120 before the line moves to -3.5.
Football and basketball games are mostly bet using a point spread. The less popular major sports, baseball and hockey, are mostly bet using a moneyline. In an effort to make baseball and hockey more appealing to point spread bettors, the sportsbook operators offer run and puck lines, respectively.
These alternative lines give point spread bettors a chance to wager on other sports using a more familiar method of betting. Since points (runs and goals) aren’t as easy to come by in baseball and hockey, the odds with the lines may have a wider spread than a football or basketball game.
Bet with your head, not over it. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.
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So you’re comfortable with stock markets rising and falling and making a few quid trading XYZ, but what about Cable, Loonie, Kiwi and the Yen? Trading currencies is a lot of fun once you get past the basics, so here we go.
The foreign exchange market, also known as forex, currency trading, spot forex and FX; can offer attractive opportunities to spread traders, even during turbulent market conditions. The currency markets are highly liquid with the global forex market being worth some $4 trillion-a-day. If you are interested in forex trading, you can actually trade forex through financial spread betting and currencies like the euro/pound have always been popular with traders. Most spread betting providers offer trading on a wide range of major and even exotic currency pairs. The added advantage is that with your same spread betting account you can trade a wide range of other financial markets that are often impacted by fluctuations in the forex market.
The major currencies and their designation in the foreign exchange market are:
The other currencies are referred to as Minor Currencies and they are usually traded against a Major Currency.
There are many currencies around the world but only eight currencies (referred to as the majors) are actively traded and make up about 90% of all global trade transactions and therefore comes with excellent liquidity. The USA dollar (USD) is naturally the most traded. The other majors are the euro, British pound, Japanese yen and Swiss franc. The Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar are also included and these are sometimes known as the ‘commodity currencies’ since their price movements are very much correlated to international commodity prices. Major currency pairs have the USD on one side and most forex traders will be dealing in the Major Currency Pairs. For the USA dollar crosses you would do well to keep an eye on what is said by the Federal Reserve as this can trigger sizable movements and impact the principal currency pairs. You would also do well to follow economic releases including GBP data, employment, consumer and production figures as well as announcements like confidence and retail sales data. The main currency crosses are:
Euro vs. the U.S. dollar (the Anti-dollar)
USA Dollar versus Japanese Yen (the Yen)
Sterling Pound/USA Dollar Spread Betting
British pound vs. the U.S. dollar (Sterling, Cable)
U.S. dollar vs. the Swiss franc (Swissie)
U.S. dollar vs. the Canadian dollar (Loonie)
Australian dollar vs. the U.S. dollar (Aussie)
New Zealand dollar vs. the U.S. dollar (Kiwi or Kiwi dollar)
Minor Currency Pairs or Major Crosses are forex pairs that do not contain the USA Dollar such as the GBP/JPY. Currency pairs that have the Euro are commonly referred to as Euro crosses, for instance EUR/GBP.
Here are some examples of the Major Crosses:-
Canadian dollar vs. the Japanese yen
Australian dollar vs. the Japanese yen
New Zealand dollar vs. the Japanese yen
British pound vs. the Australian dollar
British pound vs. the Canadian dollar
British pound vs. New Zealand dollar
Australian dollar vs. the Swiss franc
Australian dollar vs. the Canadian dollar
Aussie dollar vs. the New Zealand dollar
Canadian dollar vs. the Swiss franc
New Zealand dollar vs. the Swiss franc
New Zealand dollar vs. Canadian dollarn
Lastly, there are the exotic currency pairs which are mainly pairs from emerging economies such as parts of Asia, the Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. Minors can experience large movements on modest volumes as there is much less liquidity when trading such currency pairs than the majors like EUR/USD or USD/JPY. As such these pairs can carry wide spreads since they aren’t particularly liquid and in general bid-offer spreads on emerging market pairs will always be wider than those on major currency pairs; in some exotics spreads can be as much as ten times that of the majors. For instance an exotic currency pair like the USD/ZAR may have easily double or triple the spread of the EUR/USD pair. Exotic forex pairs aren’t classified as major nor minor, but they still play an important part in the global economy. Traders would do well to use less leverage than usual and modest position sizes due to the higher volatility typically experienced by exotic pairs. Research for exotics will also require some extra effort.
U.S. dollar vs. the South African rand
U.S. dollar vs. the Hong Kong dollar
U.S. dollar vs. the Singapore dollar
U.S. dollar vs. the Hungarian Forint
British pound vs. the South African rand
Singapore Dollar/ vs. the Japanese Yen
Australian dollar vs. the Singapore dollar
USA Dollar vs. the South Korean Won
Please Note: Trading exotic currency pairs is best left for experienced traders as these currencies are more prone to be subject to political and central bank intervention. Also, some exotics are pegged to the value of another currency or may fluctuate in a managed float. So, even if you think that a currency represents good value, it may still not move due to the underlying technicalities. As such, if you are just starting out stick to the majors and crosses first.
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If Carlsberg had been asked to come up with a market for spread betting it would have produced the forex (aka FX or currencies) market – massively liquid, tight dealing spreads, good for technical analysis and the major news events are announced publicly rather than nods and winks between well-paid City folk. Also you get more leverage, and for owls and insomniacs, it’s open 24 hours a day.
OK, that’s the spin, now a word of warning, there are some very big fish in these waters and we’re the minnows. It doesn’t matter whether the big fish are clever or not as they’ve got the size to determine which way the waters flow. They may have misinterpreted Big Ben Bernanke’s comments, or missed the revisions to US payroll data, but they’ll determine the market direction long enough to stop you out. So, who are these big fish?
By far the biggest group are the speculators, or sharks (historically known as the ‘white sock brigade’). Their aim is straightforward, to whack it up, down or both so long as they make money. They can trade on technicals, economics or rumours just so long as they bring the profits in.
Then there are the hedgers, split into those who hedge investments and those who hedge commercial risk. An example of investment hedging would be a fund manager who wants exposure to the US market but not the dollar, so having bought the currency to pay for his investments he then sells it for settlement at some future date. Corporations (proper companies like Shell or Tate & Lyle) use the forex market to hedge exposure to future overseas payments.
The national central banks, like the Bank of Japan and the Peoples Bank of China, are also occasional big players in the markets. Their actions range from covertly targeting particular levels to issuing a very public message by visibly dealing in the forex markets.
As usual there’s a bit of jargon, but nothing too frightening. Firstly, currencies are loosely grouped into categories with names like ‘Majors’, ‘Minors’, ‘Exotics’ and ‘Scandies’. I won’t list them all, but the majors are the US Dollar (USD), Sterling (GBP), Euro (EUR), Japan (JPY), Swiss Franc, known as Swissie (CHF) and Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars (AUD, CAD, NZD) known as the Aussie, Loonie and Kiwi respectively. The other useful bit of jargon is that GBP/USD is referred to as ‘Cable’ as it was originally quoted by cable under the Atlantic.
Currencies differ from other investment markets in that you’re both buying and selling something at the same time. Currencies are quoted in pairs such as GBP/USD (Sterling/ Dollar) where the first quoted currency is known as the base currency and signifies the denomination of your trade. For example buying GBP/USD means that you are buying Sterling and at the same time selling US Dollars.
The way to make money from currency rate fluctuations is to go long on the market and speculate that one currency will continue to strengthen, or weaken against another currency. So a trader who believes that the UK pound would continue to strengthen would buy at the upper end of the bid-offer spread (or vice-versa i.e. sell at the lower end if he believed that the pound is prone for further weakening).
Prices are quoted in pips and most main currencies are quoted to four decimal places (Japan is only quoted to 2 decimal places as it’s a massive figure already). So, carrying the example through if you buy €1 a pip of GBP/USD at 1.6070 and it rises to 1.6085, that’s €15 in the account. Easy isn’t it?
Normally, spread betting works by staking a certain £x per ‘pip’ or basis point (some provider now even offer fractional pip pricing, i.e. five decimal places, which makes for even tighter, more accurate spreads). Let’s suppose you place a bet staking £1 per ‘pip’ and the currency pair you are trading moves from 1.3000 rising 5 ‘pips’ to 1.3005 you have made £5 (excluding transaction fees). A rise to 1.3300 nets you £300.
Currencies normally don’t move so much but they do tend to fluctuate a bit up and down on a day-to-day basis. This naturally attracts people who like to take positions on things but traders will normally borrow an amount in execess than their initial deposit amount so as to maximise profits. This has to be understood in the context that currency movements are usually miniscule constituting only a few basis points (one basis point is 0.01%) a day. As such if you have $100 in the market and you manage to get the market direction right then you might just make two or three cents a day. That’s very little and nothing to get excited about so speculators go out and deal in these markets with tens and hundreds of thousands at a time. Naturally, most traders don’t have tens or hundreds of thousands to day trade currencies so brokers permit traders leverage. So with a leverage ratio of 100:1 you put in your $100 upfront and you’re allowed to take positions in up to $10,000 of currency (i.e. brokers may charge only a 1% deposit). If prices move by 100 basis point (that’s 1%) you will have to put more money in your trading account or the provider will close your trade to protect themselves. If the market moves sharply against you, you might also face a margin call for the additional losses sustained not covered by your account balance.
The fees involved in financial spread betting depend on how long you keep position open. The buy rate is always higher than the sell rate so the provider makes a profit but there is also a financing fee for keeping the position open overnight. If the position is kept open for only a few days, the financing fee is likely to be quite small. For quarterly futures, the fee could amount to 8 to 10 pips for the majors.
One of the key themes for some time has been the Carry Trade, which is covered in the link. Here’s a round up. In Japan, interest rates are always bugger-all, but in New Zealand, rates are usually pretty high. So the bright idea has been to borrow from Japan at lets say 0.1% and put it on deposit in New Zealand at 5% for example. This is known as the Carry Trade. You get an interest rate difference of nearly 5%. If enough people do this trade, the New Zealand Dollar, aka Kiwi, will go up and the Japanese Yen will go down. NZD/USD soars! Of course, in times of risk aversion, the Carry Trades are reversed and NZD/USD falls. It all about predicting times when the market feels bullish or not.
The Carry Trade can be done with a lot of currency crosses. Not all traders fancy the Kiwi, but lots of them fancy borrowing Yen and selling it into various currencies. The Aussie Dollar and South African Rand are two other high interest rate currencies.
Other key influences on the forex market include central banks, their interest rate decisions, currency intervention, currency pegs and the potential of a reserve currency. I’ve got you covered for these topics if you fancy some more reading.
It is worth noting that in periods where the economic climate worsens, investors seek refuge in safe-haven currencies like the USA dollar or Japanese yen while exiting equities. The reverse also holds true and when risk appetite returns, stocks rise while the dollar falls. Currencies are always traded in pairs and spread trading providers can quote as many as 50 major, minor and exotic currency pairs. Less margin is required for trading forex currencies as the market is quite liquid so it is normally easy to get a tradable price compared with other markets. For the more commonly traded currency pairings, such as Euro-Dollar or Pound-Dollar, spreads are very tight. Of course if you trade less liquid pairs such as USD/SEK (USD/Swedish Krona), the s
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