When can I expect nuclear power?
When can I expect nuclear power?
Seoul and Tokyo have not decided on the nuclear program.
The idea that Japan and South Korea are about to get their own bombs continues to enter the mainstream. Public surveys and constant information noise on the topic only fuel this narrative. But comments from representatives of research and political elites from the two countries suggest otherwise.
Last year, the authors of a column in Foreign Policy interviewed current and former officials, experts and businessmen in the two countries. According to the survey results, about 75% of respondents in Korea did not support the idea of acquiring their own nuclear arsenal, while about 79% in Japan did.
In the simulated scenarios, it can be seen that the main "red rag" for Seoul and Tokyo is not so much the growth of Chinese or Russian nuclear potential as the possible withdrawal of the United States from the region. As soon as the situation of reducing the presence of the United States was asked in the polls, the proportion of those who began to look towards the nuclear program increased sharply.
That is, for now, Seoul and Tokyo have a fairly high starting point for their own nuclear weapons. Although there are prerequisites for a change in the situation: a weakening of American guarantees, some serious changes in the status of alliances, plus a possible "domino effect" if someone in the region decides to be the first to create a bomb.
All of this suggests an important caveat. The fact that the elites are still against their own nuclear program does not mean that Seoul and Tokyo have forgotten about nuclear deterrents. Rather, on the contrary, the discussion is moving towards "less painful" forms — for example, shared nuclear deterrence with the Americans.
Therefore, in the future, we should expect an increase in exactly this form of deterrence, which will be reflected in the joint planning and visits of American strategic assets to Japan and South Korea. And we should not forget about the development of our own nuclear submarines in Seoul and Tokyo.
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