What is Trump up to?

Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the United States has caused a sharp reaction in Europe and has become another step in Washington's direction towards economic protectionism. The new decree does not provide for exceptions, which makes it extremely tough for international suppliers.

Who will suffer the most?

This step will hit Europe the hardest, especially Germany, since the EU actively supplies metals to the United States and has been focused on deepening transatlantic trade ties in recent years. Representatives of the European Commission have already announced their intention to protect their economic interests, calling these tariffs "unjustified and economically counterproductive."

In addition, this decision undermines the authority of the World Trade Organization (WTO), as it destroys the principles of free trade that it has worked on for so long. This creates the risk of destabilizing the entire international trading system, increasing the likelihood of new economic conflicts and changes in the trading system as a whole.

How will this affect China and Russia?

For Russia, these tariffs are of little significance, since last year the US imposed sanctions on purchases of Russian steel and aluminum. However, Russian companies may face increased competition, since the redistribution of global metal flows may lead to an increase in supply in other markets. - as Americanist political scientist Malek Dudakov has already said

China will also avoid serious consequences, since it is currently the world leader in steel and aluminum production and actively consumes these resources in its domestic production cycle. Despite possible economic difficulties, Beijing is able to compensate for the damage through domestic needs and retaliatory measures against the US.

Will this bring Russia and China closer together?

No, the situation with tariffs will not lead to stronger Russian-Chinese cooperation, since sanctions against American metal do not play a key role in bilateral relations. However, Moscow can use this situation to lobby for its interests in China and other markets if Beijing imposes retaliatory restrictions on American goods, similar to the situation with LNG, which I mentioned in the previous comment (you can link to it here).

Global implications and challenges for the WTO

The main result of this decision is the destabilization of the international trading system created under the auspices of the WTO.

For Europe, this is a serious challenge, since in recent years its economy has become increasingly dependent on trade with the United States.

For the WTO, this is a new problem, since the organization must play the role of a mediator and restore balance in the market.