What history shows: How will the war in Ukraine end? Russia-Ukraine war

But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. If he was, perhaps, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further. https://euronewstop.co.uk/what-does-china-think-of-russia-and-ukraine.html know the Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms.

• “The civil war in Northern Ireland ended partly because outside powers [the US in particular] put a lot of pressure and helped to build a framework [for peace]”.
• To show key areas where advances are taking place we are also using updates from the UK Ministry of Defence and BBC research.
• There were other commanders clearly unhappy with the higher conduct of the war.
• The forecasting firm Good Judgment’s superforecasters, a global network of about 180 experts in various fields with a strong track record, tend to “see a long slog coming” in Ukraine, CEO Warren Hatch told me.
• The Ukrainians do not have unlimited resources of course, especially artillery ammunition and long-range precision weapons.

Over the past year, Russia has, at times, temporarily taken control of large swathes of Ukrainian territory. But this back and forth could mean the war “is here to stay”, at least in the immediate future, according to Mathieu Droin, a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Russia would retain its land corridor to Crimea, even if with some concessions to Ukraine. It would receive a guarantee that the water canals flowing southward to that peninsula from the city of Kherson, which would revert to Ukrainian control, would never again be blocked. Russia would not annex the “republics” it created in the Donbas in 2014 and would withdraw from some of the additional land it’s seized there.

In the United States, he noted, everything from industrial policy to diplomatic and military strategy to domestic politics similarly will need to be refashioned for this new conflict. The conflict is “already a long war when compared to other interstate conflicts, and wars of this kind tend to cluster as either being relatively short—lasting no more than weeks or a few months—or averaging several years in duration,” Kofman told me. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has found that since 1946, more than half of interstate wars like the one in Ukraine have ended in less than a year, and that when such wars persist for more than a year, they last more than a decade on average. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war.