Week 3 Against The Spread Best Bets

Week 3 Against The Spread Best Bets

Week 3 best bets: NFL picks and predictions for Sunday's games

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Week 3 of the NFL season is underway and we head into another full Sunday slate. SportsbookWire.com runs through Sunday’s schedule, with NFL picks, predictions and best bets against the money line, spread and Over/Under. Check out our staff picks and predictions before locking in your Week 3 bets.
Week 3 started with the Carolina Panthers’ 24-9 road win over the Houston Texans. Carolina moved to 3-0 to stay atop the NFC South while Houston slipped to 1-2. The Green Bay Packers will visit the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football and the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football to wrap up the week.
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook .
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Lines last updated Saturday at 12:05 p.m. ET.
BET 1 unit on the UNDER 43.5 (-115) for a few reasons. First of all, the Under is 4-1-1 in the last six Bengals-Steelers games.
Second, we know Pittsburgh’s defense is a top-5 unit in football but the market is sleeping on Cincy’s defense. The Bengals rank eighth in defensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive success rate.
Additionally, I figure both coaching staffs want to keep their quarterbacks out of harm’s way in this game. Pittsburgh’s pass rush is ferocious and Bengals QB Joe Burrow ‘s rookie season was cut short with an injury.
Plus, Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pectoral injury and seems less than thrilled about new offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s 3- and 4-WR sets. I expect the Steelers to feed RB Najee Harris a lot this game.
Lines last updated Saturday at 10:48 a.m. ET.
CHICAGO +7.5 (- 120 ) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.
Despite Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr . being expected to make his season debut, I prefer to take the BEARS and the points because of the “hook” (half point) on the 7.5 spread. OBJ last played in Week 7 of 2020 when he tore his ACL.
Expect the Bears to be focused with QB Justin Fields getting the start. His ability to run will cause the Browns defense problems, making this a tight affair.
Lines last updated Saturday at 11:17 a.m. ET.
The Chargers are 1-1 ATS this season while the Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in either game this season and that follows last year’s 8-11 ATS season (including the postseason).
The Kansas City defense is going to keep the Chiefs from running away from teams, and this week they face an incredibly potent Chargers offense.
Lines last updated Friday at 4:59 p.m. ET.
Arizona is 1-1 ATS while the Jaguars are 0-2 ATS to start the season.
The Cardinals look like playoff contenders early on, while the Jaguars look like they are a young team with a rookie quarterback and that needs more talent.
If the Cardinals are as good as they believe they can be, they should easily handle the Jaguars. They have put up 72 points in two games against bad defensive teams. The Jaguars are a bad defensive team right now. Expect at least 30 points from the Cardinals, and if that happens, the Jaguars simply aren’t equipped to keep up.
Lines last updated Friday at 4:46 p.m. ET.
The OVER 47.5 (-105) is the best play on the board in this battle of winless teams.
The Giants have coughed up 413.5 total yards per game, 287.5 passing yards per outing and 28.5 PPG. The Falcons have been touched up for 387.5 total yards to rank 21st, while yielding 40.0 PPG, worst in the NFL.
This will be a higher-scoring affair, with the G-Men coming through in the end.
Lines last updated Saturday at 11 a.m. ET.
The RAVENS -7.5 (-110) are favored by my least favorite number. Seven and a hook is great when playing the underdog, but I cannot stand it on a favorite.
That being said, I like it here. The Lions +7.5 (-110) have been decent enough on offense, but they have yet to play a full 60 minutes in two outings. They have been so-so against the run, and that’s never good when facing a talent like Ravens QB Lamar Jackson . He is going to go off in his first-ever showing in Motown.
Lines last updated Saturday at 11:37 a.m. ET.
GIMME WASHINGTON +7.5 (-120) for 1.25 units. This is my favorite side of this Week 3 slate and you can listen to why I like Washington in further detail on this week’s Bet Slippin’ Podcast .
However, the gist of my analysis is that Buffalo hasn’t looked good enough offensively to be this big of a favorite. Bills QB Josh Allen ranks 24th in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation composite, 28th in DVOA, 22nd in QBR and 28th by PFF. Granted, Buffalo’s first two opponents were tough defenses but Washington is as talented defensively as either Pittsburgh or Miami.
We have a significant “ reverse line move ” (RLM) in the betting market. More than three-fourths of the cash and nearly 90% of the action is on Buffalo laying the points according to Pregame.com at the time of writing, but the Bills opened as a 9-point consensus favorite and have come down to the current price despite the one-sided action.
Lines last updated Friday at 10:42 a.m. ET.
All the noise surrounding Indianapolis’s quarterback room makes me give a harder look at the TITANS -5.5 (-110) . Reportedly, the Colts could split quarterbacking duties amongst Jacob Eason and Brett Hundley .
There’s a saying in football: “If you have two starting quarterbacks then you have no starting quarterback.” Isn’t that even more true for backups? If Indianapolis was sold on either Eason or Hundley then that player would be getting first-team practice reps in preparation for a game Wentz is most likely to miss.
For as much grief as Tennesee’s has received for its defensive play through the first two weeks, Indianapolis hasn’t been much better. The Titans rank 30th in defensive DVOA by Football Outsiders and 28th in defensive EPA per play. While the Colts defense is 26th in DVOA and 25th in EPA per play.
BET the TITANS -5.5 (-110) for 1 unit.
Lines last updated Friday at 11:17 a.m. ET.
We’ve seen a completely dominant Saints and a completely dominated Saints team through the first two weeks. They should be able to give Patriots rookie QB Mac Jones some problems even though they struggled defensively in Week 2.
Both teams are strong defensively, so it comes down to quarterback play. Who do you trust more at this point? For me, it’s Winston, for now.
Lines last updated Saturday at 11:34 a.m. ET.
The Jets have not allowed more than 25 points so far this season. They are averaging 10 points per game.
The Broncos won’t likely get into the 30s and the Jets won’t be able to do much offensively against that Denver defense.
Lines last updated Saturday at 11:10 a.m. ET.
The RAIDERS -3.5 (-108) are a good play laying the points, especially since the Dolphins will be without Tua.
In addition, Vegas will be missing Jacobs, but RB Kenyan Drake is expected to start. He was unceremoniously dumped in Oct. 2019 in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals for a low-round pick by, you guessed it, the Dolphins. He should be running with a chip on his shoulder, trying to deal the organization a little payback.
While the Raiders are 0-4 ATS in the past four as a favorite, they are a much different team this season. Expect them to buck this trend.
Lines last updated Saturday at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Giving away 2.5 points should never scare someone betting the spread because if you believe a team is going to win, you expect them to win by a field goal or more.
The line is better for Seattle than it is for Minnesota, which is a happy bonus if you believe the Seahawks are going to make it seven in a row under Wilson against the Vikings. Take the SEAHAWKS -2.5 (-108) .
Lines last updated Friday at 5:10 p.m. ET.
This is a tough game to predict because both teams have looked so good thus far. Even with LB Jason Pierre-Paul out and WR Antonio Brown likely missing the game because of COVID-19, the Buccaneers feel like the better team heading into this one.
Bucs QB Tom Brady is playing so well and the run defense is going to force the Rams to be one-dimensional, which will allow the pass rush to thrive. I’m taking the BUCS (-125) to win outright.
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There are seven teams in the NFL with a 2-0 record but only three of those teams are undefeated against the spread: the Broncos, Panthers and Raiders. Carolina already improved to 3-0 ATS after its win Thursday night over the Texans, and now Denver and Las Vegas will try to stay in that group with their matchups against the Jets and Dolphins.
Las Vegas has two impressive victories over the Ravens and Steelers in Weeks 1 and 2. The Raiders were underdogs in both of those contests and won outright! In Week 3, they are favored by 3.5 points on SI Sportsbook over the Dolphins (who are without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa). As you'll see below, all five of our analysts picked the Raiders to cover the spread this weekend.
Meanwhile, the Broncos easily covered the spread in their first two games with a double-digit winning margin in both outings. Denver is a heavy favorite for its game against the Jets with a spread of 10.5 points.
Here's our criteria for picking games:
The surprise of the young NFL season is easily the play of Derek Carr and the 2-0 Raiders. The Raiders, who have embraced the role of underdog, are also 2-0 ATS after earning wins over the Ravens and Steelers. Now the Raiders return home to the Las Vegas strip and get to face a short handed Dolphins club that will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Miami is fresh off a 35-0 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills . The Raiders' fierce front seven, led by Maxx Crosby, will harass Jacoby Brissett all game. "Just win, baby" will do just that in Week 3. Back Las Vegas and lay the points.
Jacoby Brissett gets the start for the Dolphins behind a weak offensive line in an offense that has only put up 17 points on the year. The Miami defense has also underwhelmed, allowing 35 unanswered points last week vs. the Bills, while the 2-0 Raiders have exceeded expectations. Derek Carr currently leads the league with 819 passing yards and 93 passing attempts, connecting not only with superstar Darren Waller, but with young playmakers Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III. This will be the easiest matchup so far for the Raiders, and I’m laying the three points.
Not exactly out on a limb here to take a team +105 to win outright but it is an underdog all the same, especially against the defending champs. The Buccaneers defense has yet to regain its outstanding late 2020 form, and Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is finally in a real offense. I like Los Angeles to win outright.
The Dolphins (1-1) travel west and visit the Raiders (2-0) in a Sunday afternoon game, and you know that Las Vegas crowd will be tuned up and ready to go. If playing in front of this hostile crowd against a white hot Raiders offense wasn't enough, the Dolphins took another blow and will be without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who bruised his ribs this past Sunday. Jacoby Brissett will get the nod, who's just 12-20 in 32 career starts. Brissett will look to lead a Miami offense that is averaging just 8.5 points per game, which ranks 32nd in the league. On the other side of the ball, the Raiders now average just short of 30 points per game and come in with a clear edge in pretty much every applicable matchup stat across the board. The home team in this matchup is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
The Broncos are one of three teams with a 2-0 record against the spread thanks to covering against the Giants and Jaguars. The Jets haven’t been able to cover this year despite getting 3.5 points from Carolina in Week 1 and 5.5 against New England last week. Gang Green is getting 10.5 points in Denver. They were underdogs by 10.5 points or more four times last year and covered just once; 25% against the spread when getting double-digit points is pretty pitiful. Jets are lucky this isn’t the other kind of football or they may be on the brink of getting relegated like AC Richmond .
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Week 3: Best NFL Picks Against the Spread

By Vegas Odds Sports Staff

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— September 23, 2021

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There have been plenty of upsets in the opening two weeks of the NFL season, but we should start to get a clearer picture of who will struggle and who’s the real deal as the season goes on.
Over half of the teams in the league are sitting with a 1-1 record so it’s been a mixed bag so far, while last week saw a host of injuries to starting QBs so that will also affect the results this weekend.
It’s impossible to tell what to expect from either side here after such a mixed start, while the Saints do have concerns that Jameis Winston is regressing towards the Tampa Bay version of himself, while they also have some key injuries to deal with.
Mac Jones has impressed with the Pats so far but they don’t look like a team who can put up a lot of points, while they also don’t have the ability to stop the run so this game is going to revolve around Alvin Kamara. He should get plenty of yards while the Patriots also look like a run-first team, so it should be tight and the clock will keep moving so that also reduces the opportunity for points.
The #Jets get on the board. Now 10-3. #Patriots run defense getting worked for 5.2 yards per rush.
It wouldn’t be a total shock if New Orleans come out of this with a win, but it’s likely to be settled by a late FG either way.
Yes, the Packers’ defense is a problem, but San Francisco didn’t look impressive in their win over Philadelphia in Week 2 and Aaron Rodgers and his offense appeared to be clicking again.
The 49ers also lost Raheem Mostert for the season so that takes away a major weapon in the run game, while it’s easy to see Green Bay winning this one, never mind just covering the spread.
The Jets aren’t going to win this one, but anything over 10 points is a big spread in the NFL, especially when the New York defense does look frisky and capable of keeping things tight.
Zach Wilson is the obvious problem and can’t be trusted to throw the ball much this week after 4 INTs last week – One may have been on the receiver, but at least two of those vs the Pats were genuinely worrying from the number 2 overall Draft choice.
Expect the Jets to run the ball well and it’s worth remembering this Denver offense is still led by Teddy Bridgewater so they’re unlikely to blow the doors off the Jets here, and covering the spread certainly seems like a reasonable outcome in this one.
The Spread is designed to even the odds against two teams that are unevenly matched, so in theory, the amount of points in the spread is the number of points that bookmakers expect an NFL game to be won by.
Betting against the spread means you are taking the underdog to either win the game or to lose by less than the number of points on offer.
Before betting, it is advised that you confirm the sports wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they will vary between countries and even at state/province level. Vegas Odds
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Week 3 Against The Spread Best Bets

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