Week 17 Spreads

Week 17 Spreads

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Jacob Camenker is a senior content producer at The Sporting News.

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The 2021 NFL season continues to be a weird one, as another double-digit underdog was able to win outright in Week 15. The Texans upset the Chargers in a 41-29 blowout where Los Angeles' defense struggled to stop anything that Houston did. As a result, the Chargers are now teetering are on the brink of playoff contention while the Dolphins, who began the year 1-7, are on the inside of the bubble right now.
So, yeah. It's been a totally normal year for the NFL!
Even despite these weird results — there have been seven double-digit underdogs that have win outright this year — bettors are finding ways to successfully handicap games by scanning the latest odds, trends, results and injuries that are impacting line values across the NFL.
The final weeks of the regular season may get dicey for gamblers. Why? Because there are so many unknowns with the COVID list. The NFL has instituted new virus protocols that have shortened the amount of time that players have to quarantine if they test positive for COVID, but there are still many questions about who will and will not be available each week. And where there are key roster moves that deactivate players, it can have a big impact on point spreads.
We've already seen that this week with the Colts. Indy opened being favored by more than a touchdown. However, Carson Wentz tested positive for COVID, so that line dropped to 2.5 briefly when it looked like Wentz would be out. Now, it's possible that he might be back because of the new protocols, so the line is back up near -7.
Be sure to keep a close eye on line movement this week. Savvy bettors will keep an eye on the latest injuries and COVID-related absences to see if they can find lopsided lines. It may also be a smart idea to make some bets early in the week to take advantage of lines that could change with COVID additions. Playing teasers isn't a bad option either, as those can give you immense line value if a game moves four point sand you're on the correct side of it.
For more expert NFL predictions, check out Sporting News' picks straight up and against the spread for Week 17.
Below are the latest Week 17 NFL odds, including point spreads, money lines and over-under totals for every game, according to FanDuel Sportsbook .
I know, I know — you want nothing to do with the Cardinals after their loss to the Colts. After all, they've lost three straight games and are taking on a Cowboys team that just demolished Washington on "Sunday Night Football." What's to like about the Cardinals in this spot?
Well, the answer is twofold. First of all, this line is just a bit too high. It was set to open with the Cowboys as a 2.5-point favorite, but in wake of their massive win, the line jumped up 2.5 points to Cowboys (-5).
You certainly could make a case that the line should have risen, as Dak Prescott put forth his best performance of the second half of the season. That said, it's also worth noting that Washington was extremely undermanned on defense and was missing its top corner and all of its starters at linebacker. So, Dallas should have played that well on offense, all things considered.
The second part of the equation is that the Cardinals played better against the Colts than the final scoreline indicates. They were just without key personnel whose absences directly cost them points.
For example, punter Andy Lee was out for the Colts-Cardinals game. Normally, that wouldn't be a big deal, but he was the holder on extra points and field goals. Without Lee, Matt Prater struggled to kick the ball, as he missed two field goals and an extra point. That cost the team seven points in a six-point loss.
Meanwhile, the absence of center Rodney Hudson proved costly as well. Max Garcia shifted over from right guard while Josh Jones came into the lineup in place of Garcia. Jones was whistled for three penalties while Garcia committed the most egregious error of all. He tossed a bad snap to Kyler Murray near their own end-zone and it resulted in a safety.
If guys like Lee and Hudson return, the Cardinals will be in better shape to compete with the Cowboys. They may not win, but they should be able to cover a five-point spread. Murray will have to play a bit better to make that happen, but he has the explosive, game-changing talent needed to do that.
BetQL agrees that the Cardinals are the right side here. They have a three-star value on them and their projected spread lists the Cardinals as 4.5-point favorites. A half a point of line value may not seem like a lot, but it still shows that the Cardinals are being slightly undervalued due to their recent stretch of poor results.
For more top betting picks from BetQL, click here .
The 49ers are coming off a loss to the Titans and this looks like a great bounce-back spot for them. However, it may be difficult for the team to cover a 12.5-point spread with Trey Lance at quarterback.
Lance has a lot of upside, but he will be making just his second career NFL start with Jimmy Garoppolo, thumb, sidelined. His lacking experience could be an issue for the 49ers as they take on a well-coached Texans defense.
While the Texans have had their share of issues this season, Lovie Smith's defense has typically played well against rookie quarterbacks. Houston has faced a rookie starter four times this year and the team has posted a 2-2 record in those contests. And Smith's defense has limited opponents starting rookies at quarterback to just 20.8 points per game.
In their two losses against rookies, the Texans have been beaten by margins of three and seven points. That hardly justifies being nearly a two-TD underdog even against a team as strong-looking as the 49ers.
If the Texans can continue their strong performance against rookies and limit Lance and Co. to around 21-24 points, they should be able to cover this spread. Winning outright against a strong 49ers defense may prove difficult, but Houston has scored 71 total points in its last two games, both wins. So, if Davis Mills and the offense play well again, they should cover here.
It's a really good week to trust underdogs, as there are some lines that are just a bit lopsided. This qualifies as one of them.
The Chargers certainly have a better quarterback and a more explosive offense than the Broncos, but it's important to remember just how bad they are on defense. The Chargers have allowed 140.3 rushing yards per game this season and were just gashed by Rex Burkhead. Granted, they were without some key defensive players, including Joey Bosa and Derwin James, but they still have the league's fourth-worst run defense and have struggled even when all of their players have been healthy.
The Broncos have a great running game. They have a strong one-two punch of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, so it will be hard for the Chargers to slow them down. As such, Denver should be able to stay in this game regardless of who is at quarterback, though Teddy Bridgewater and his 43-21 career against the spread record are preferable to the inconsistent Drew Lock.
Still, the Broncos should be able to cover if Lock starts. The Chargers' defense isn't good and Justin Herbert has never performed well against the Broncos. Los Angeles is 1-2 against Denver with him at quarterback and their lone win was by three points.
Could the Chargers pull away and win this one big? Maybe, but it's far more likely they'll struggle to slow the Broncos' strong running attack. After all, the Chargers have given up 75 points over their last two games combined so even if they have an offensive outburst, the Broncos should be able to match them.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers at New Orelans Saints
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers at New Orelans Saints
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
Carolina Panthers at New Orelans Saints
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Week 17 odds and point spreads are not what you might think. Unlike any other week of NFL action, there’s a lot of other factors to take into account.
The Los Angeles Chargers being favored over the defending champion Chiefs comes to mind first. With Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City’s starters likely sitting this out, it’s a must-avoid matchup in the betting world.
On the other hand, there’s a few huge NFL Week 17 games on top. Can the Chicago Bears shockingly earn a playoff appearance with a win over the Green Bay Packers? Who is set to come out on top in a huge NFC West tilt between the Rams and Cardinals?
Here, we look at the NFL Week 17 odds and point spreads with a brief analysis about each game.
Jaguars-Colts Week 17 point spread: Colts -14.0 (over/under 48.5)
Now in position to land Trevor Lawrence with the first pick in the 2021 NFL Draft , the Jaguars have lost their past three games by a combined 71 points. Doug Marrone and Co. have dropped 14 consecutive outings and are being outscored by an average of nearly 12 points per game. Taking on a Colts team that’s in need of a win to advance to the playoffs, Jacksonville has already called it for the 2020 season. Needless to say, Indianapolis at -14.0 seems to be a good bet in this NFL Week 17 game.
Titans-Texans Week 17 point spread: Titans -7.0 (over/under 55.0)
The early success that Houston saw under interim head coach Romeo Crennel is now a thing of the past. These Texans have dropped four consecutive games, including a brutal Week 16 loss to the hapless Cincinnati Bengals that saw their defense yield 37 points. All said, Houston has given up an average of 37 points over the past three games. Two of those outings against offenses in that of the Bears and Bengals who ranked in the bottom five of the NFL in scoring at the time. Putting up north of 31 points per game this season, the Titans are going to have no problem with Houston here.
Falcons-Buccaneers Week 17 point spread: Buccaneers -7.0 (over/under 50.5)
Up 14-10 against the defending champion Chiefs by virtue of a Laquon Treadwell touchdown late in the fourth quarter last week, the Falcons had an opportunity to right that wrongs that included multiple late-game meltdowns during a disastrous 2020 season. Instead, Atlanta allowed the Chiefs to drive down the field for a touchdown and a 17-14 win.
Atlanta has lost its past four games by a combined 15 points, three of them coming against teams that have already clinched playoff appearances. All said, eight of the Falcons’ 11 losses have come by one score this season. Could that change with the Buccaneers starters iffy for Week 17? Perhaps, but I would be somewhat leery of the Bucs’ seven-point spread.
Cowboys-Giants Week 17 point spread: Cowboys -1.5 (over/under 44.5)
Dallas’ 37-17 win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week represented the team’s third consecutive victory after starting 3-9 on the season. During this three-game run, Mike McCarthy and Co. are averaging nearly 33 points per game. It’s the first time since the start of the 2019 campaign that the Cowboys have reeled off three consecutive. The Giants are in a different boat heading into this must-win outing, having scored 26 points during their ongoing three-game skid. With Dallas at -1.5 heading into Jersey, the expectation is that it will cover (and then some).
Jets-Patriots Week 17 point spread: Patriots -3.0 (over/under 40.0)
It’s rather hilarious to look at. By virtue of their Week 15 upset win over the Rams and last Sunday’s victory against Cleveland, these Jets have won two consecutive games. It more than likely cost them an o pportunity of landing consensus No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence in the 2021 NFL Draft. Soon-to-be fired head coach Adam Gase is also 5-4 with the Jets from Dec. 1 on in his two seasons. In every other game the Jets have played under Gase’s leadership, they are 4-18. Can’t believe I am saying this, but Bill Belichick and the struggling Patriots don’t make sense at -3.5
Chargers-Chiefs Week 17 point spread: Chargers -5.5 (over/under 43.0)
Update: Patrick Mahomes won’t play, Chad Henne to start
This is how you know NFL Week 17 can get wonky. The Chargers are more than a field goal favorite to take out a Chiefs team that has won 23 of its past 24, postseason included, since Week 10 of the 2019 season. Interestingly enough, the Chargers have also played these Chiefs well during the Patrick Mahomes era. Only 28 points separate these two teams in the five games they’ve played since the start of the 2018 season. With Mahomes and fellow starters resting in Week 17, I fully expect Los Angeles to finish its season winners of four consecutive.
Vikings-Lions Week 17 point spread: Vikings -4.0 (over/under 54.0)
How bad is it in Detroit right now? Chase Daniel and David Blough both saw action during an humiliating 47-7 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16. That game was so out of hand that Tom Brady was pulled after two quarters, harkening back memories of small-school pay-for-play models in college football. All said, the Lions have given up 195 points over the past five games. Even without the Vikings playing for anything after being eliminated, Kirk Cousins and Co. couldn’t possibly screw this up, right? It’s NFL Week 17. Expect anything.
Steelers-Browns Week 17 point spread: Browns -9.5 (over/under 43.5)
Update: Jarvis Landry, other top Browns WR’s, to be activated from COVID-19 list
Unfortunate. One day before their Week 16 matchup against the then one-win Jets, the Browns learned that their top-four receivers would be out due to COVID-19 protocols . A win last week would have all but guaranteed a rare playoff appearance for Cleveland. Instead, they need a Week 17 win over Pittsburgh or some help in order to make the postseason for the first time since 2002. This, despite the fact that Cleveland is 10-5 on the season.
The good news? Pittsburgh will rest Ben Roethlisberger and other starters after clinching the AFC North last Sunday. The good news? Steelers quarterbacks not named Big Ben have thrown 29 touchdowns against 35 interceptions over the past decade. Don’t expect Mason Rudolph to be any different in Week 17, especially with Myles Garrett on the prowl. See what we did there ?
Ravens-Bengals Week 17 point spread: Ravens -14.0 (over/under 44.0)
Winners of four consecutive, Week 17 is rather simple for reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. If they are able to take out a suddenly hot Bengals squad come Sunday, the Ravens will earn a playoff spot after it looked a bit sketchy during Jackson’s bout with COVID-19 . Baltimore’s four-game winning streak has included it averaging 37 points per. As for the Bengals being a roadblock? Well, Jackson is 4-0 in his career against Cincinnati and has led Baltimore to an average victory of 17.3 points in those four “contests.” Math can be your friend here.
Packers-Bears Week 17 point spread: Packers -4.5 (over/under 49.5)
Do or die game for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. It’s actually pretty stunning what the embattled quarterback has done recently, leading to speculation heading into NFL Week 17 action that Chicago might actually re-sign him . The Bears have won three consecutive following last week’s 41-17 victory over Jacksonville. All said, Trubisky is leading this team to an average of 32.5 points over the past four games. Will it matter against the top-seeded Packers come Week 17? That all depends on whether Aaron Rodgers plays in an otherwise meaningless game for Green Bay. All he’s done in his career against the Bears is boast a 19-5 record with 51 touchdowns and 10 interceptions . Chicago better hope the Packers rest their starters in this must-win game.
Saints-Panthers Week 17 point spread: Saints -6.0 (over/under 47.5)
Injury update: Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey, Saints RBs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray (COVID-19) out
Now that the Saints have nothing to play for, I am openly wondering whether Jameis Winston will actually be given a shot to prove himself heading into free agency . Regardless of that little tidbit, there’s another interesting backstory to this NFL Week 17 game. Carolina has not beaten a winning team since taking out the Saints back in Week 17 of the 2018 season. The common denominator here? New Orleans also rested its starters in that one. Fresh off a second win since Week 5, I fully expect history to repeat itself come Sunday.
Dolphins-Bills Week 17 point spread: Bills -1.5 (over/under 42.0)
It’s one of those NFL Week 17 games I would avoid from a betting perspective. Buffalo has very little to play for here given that it has clinched the AFC East and will not have a first-round bye. I fully expect head coach Sean McDermott to sit Josh Allen and Co.
On the other hand, Miami sits at 10-5 on the season and tied with four other teams for the final four playoff spots in the AFC. Even with a loss, the upstart Dolphins will earn a playoff appearance if one of Baltimore, Cleveland or Indianapolis loses on Sunday. Will Ryan Fitzpatrick get the start after leading the team to victory following the benching of Tua Tagovailoa last week? It’s an interesting storyline in a game I would avoid at all cost.
Seahawks-49ers Week 17 point spread: Seahawks -7.0 (over/under 46.0)
Update: Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams will not play for 49ers
Seattle has really nothing to play for outside of a top-two seed in a season that will see the second seed have to play a wildcard game. Does Pete Carroll really want to risk injury against a hungry 49ers squad that’s coming off a surprising Week 16 win over the Cardinals and is angry after an injury-plagued 2020 campaign? I am not too sure in this NFL Week 17 game.
Seattle at -4.5 could make sense if Russell Wilson and Co. were to suit up here. I just don’t see how the Seahawks can make the decision to do that. If not, look for the 49ers to win their final “home” game of the season in Arizona to finish a disappointing 7-9.
Cardinals-Rams Week 17 point spread: Cardinals -3.0 (over/under 41.0)
Injury update: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (leg) will play Week 17
As poorly as Jared Goff has played over the past three games ( three touchdowns, three interceptions ), Rams fans would more than be happy with him getting this Week 17 start in a do-or-die game.
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Week 17 Spreads

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