Week 13 Expert Picks Against The Spread

Week 13 Expert Picks Against The Spread

NFL picks against the spread, Week 13: Can the Patriots beat the Bills?

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We’re on to Week 13 in the NFL, which kicks off Thursday with the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints facing off. That means it’s time once again for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Charles Curtis went 6-9 (84 -95 record overall) and Charles McDonald went 5-10 (66-86 overall). And back in the mix is Prince Grimes!
We now go to them for a comment before the Week 13 picks.
Charles C: Ugh. A step back. Let’s forget that and focus here, we’ve got only a few weeks left to turn this around.
Charles M: At this point you should probably be taking the opposite of my picks. I’ve fallen so far.
Prince: I’m back, and as a father. And my baby needs new shoes! I just need to fight the sleep deprivation to make these picks.
(All odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook .)
Do I bet on Taysom Hill to keep this a close one? Nah. The Cowboys, as a serious playoff contender, should win this one by 10 despite the Saints having a solid defense.
The Saints and Cowboys have both struggled recently, but the Cowboys have too much talent to get stuck in the mud against the injured Saints.
These are two teams reeling right now, the Saints more than Dallas. I’ll go with the better quarterback in this matchup and the Cowboys to break out of their slump with a big win.
I do wonder if Kyler Murray will need a game to shake off his absence, but then I remembered the Bears don’t exactly have the best of quarterbacks on the other side of the ball.
The Cardinals with or without Kyler Murray are a much better team than the Bears. Expect the Cardinals defense to give Justin Fields or Andy Dalton another tough day.
I’m banking on Kyler Murray returning with a little rust and having to play a solid-enough Bears defense in Chicago.
[Whispers] Detroit is 7-4 against the spread. The backdoor cover is a thing with this team.
The Vikings have started to put together better performances recently and they are vastly more talented than the Lions. I don’t think this game will be as close as last time.
I don’t know, call me crazy but I’m taking the points. Detroit played Minnesota close in their first matchup and has a -5 margin in its last three games combined.
I mean, I guess Philly could flounder like it did against the Giants last week. But the Giants’ defense is A LOT better.
I could see Jalen Hurts giving the Jets defense a hard time with his legs and arm in an easy win.
Really? Even though it’s a road game, you’ve got an Indy team that has the look of a contender not a double-digit favorite? OK, thanks!!
The Colts, at their best, should roll against the Texans. Just gotta hope they play at that level for an entire game.
I dunno. If Mike Glennon starts, I think this one stays within a field goal even though Miami’s defense is iffy.
I think the Dolphins are getting a little bit overrated right now. Last week against the Panthers was obviously a great win, but the larger sample size suggests this team is still terrible. The Giants suck too, but I think they have enough in the tank to cover this spread.
I’ll probably regret this pick if Daniel Jones plays, which it sounds like he’s trying to. But if Glennon starts at QB for the Giants, this is the way to go.
I keep betting against Cincy and losing, but I can’t shake the the feeling that the Chargers’ offense will get unstuck from the mud at some point.
Rolling with Justin Herbert to come back to life this week and make some splash plays that Joe Burrow can’t to help the Chargers cover the spread.
Two of the more difficult teams to get a read on, I’m taking the points if for no other reason than the Bengals are about due for a letdown.
A quick reminder that Tom Brady tossed five touchdowns against the Falcons earlier this year.
The Falcons are 5-6, but they are definitely one of the worst teams in the league. They’ve barely managed to squeak by terrible teams all season, but get blown out by any competent team — including by the Bucs in Week 2!
Tampa beat Atlanta by 23 in Week 2.
Can we choose to skip any games? No? OK. Fine. I’ll take Vegas at home but I don’t love this spread at all.
Washington has figured out a way to weasel their way into the 7th seed, but that doesn’t mean this is a quality team. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense should torch Washington.
Washington is rolling but I’m going with the home squad.
If Los Angeles doesn’t cover here, you know there’s a serious problem happening here. The perfect game for the Rams to figure out what ails them after three straight losses.
Get right game for the Rams. Two Odell Beckham touchdowns and a Jalen Ramsey pick six. Book it.
One of the more lopsided matchups of this season.
I find myself agreeing a lot with my pals here, but there’s good reason for that. The Steelers’ defense keeps things close and Baltimore keeps playing in super-close games this year.
The Ravens aren’t playing well enough to be 4.5 road favorites against the Steelers. Yes they’re the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they’ve been winning games by the skin of their teeth. I think the Steelers win this one.
The Steelers always play the Ravens tough. I’ll take the points on the home dog.
How can you bet on Russell Wilson right now? No way I can back him or that offense or against a Niners team that has figured a lot out recently.
The Seahawks are circling the drain right now. Russell Wilson clearly isn’t healthy, but he keeps putting himself out there. The 49ers are peaking at the right time to beat down this Seahawks team.
Something seems off with Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the 49ers have found a groove I think continues for at least another week.
I’m doing it. I know that’s a lot of points. But it feels like this is the game where we start talking about the Chiefs contending again.
Not sure the Chiefs are quite ready to be favored by this much. They’ve returned back to form, but they’re not the dominant force of the past yet. This Broncos defense can make life difficult.
I’ll take the points in this divisional matchup. The Chiefs are winning again, but it’s not like they’re blowing teams out.
When in doubt, take the points. And that’s me here between two top AFC contenders. It’s going to be a 16-14 kind of day for either side.
I’m still a big believer in the Bills. The Patriots are surging for sure, but this Bills defense should be able to make life extremely difficult for Mac Jones. Take the under if you can here, too. Both defenses should play well.
Huge matchup, really a toss-up, but I’ve been more impressed with the Pats lately.
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Our NFL Week 12 picks and predictions against the spread were a little rough again, but we'll hopefully get back on track with better all-around luck for Week 13. A lot of crazy finishes contributed to the fearless forecast frustration. The only way to break out of that is dive headfirst into the next wave of pigskin prognostications.
Week 13 brings plenty more small lines and tossup games, but also some considerable double-digit favorites to navigate. Everything has gotten more difficult as some of the lesser teams clump together as more equals, regressing to their mean.
Without trepidation, here's how SN breaks down the upcoming matchups and sees the entire slate of 15 games playing out:
The Eagles are coming off a short week but desperation will continue as they try to salvage a second straight NFC East title. Their success in the running game and throwing to their backs will keep them hanging around, but eventually, Aaron Rodgers will easily outduel Carson Wentz to ensure the Packers get revenge for an early 2019 loss at Lambeau Field.
Pick : Packers win 27-23 but fail to cover the spread.
The Browns and Titans both want to run the ball well to control the clock and set up favorable play-action passing opportunities for Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill. This becomes more of a grinding battle between Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry with a few big pass plays to the talented receivers against weak secondaries. Trust Henry and Tannehill a little more at home.
Pick : Titans win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
The Seahawks are flying back home after a short week but they will likely face Colt McCoy instead of Daniel Jones. That gives their defense and running game, which are finding momentum, a chance to take care of business at home, where they have yet to lose this season. Russell Willson will play off the run well as usual with shots downfield away from James Bradberry. The Giants will see the run contained and won't have enough firepower to keep up.
Pick : Seahawks win 30-14 and cover the spread.
The 49ers got a massive win in sweeping the Rams in Week 12 and now can start to sense a shocking late playoff run with a healthier offense and defense. Their coaching has been fantastic all season. They will effectively run on the Bills and use their intermediate passing game well, too. On the other side, they will get after Josh Allen after shutting down the run. The Bills lose by a field goal on this tough cross-country trip.
Pick : 49ers win 27-24 and cover the spread.
The Lions fired their head coach, Matt Patricia. The Bears might also soon be done with their head coach, Matt Nagy. There's should be some motivation of the players to play harder on both sides with their respective fading seasons at stake. Crazy things tend to happen when both teams are mediocre — see the Week 1 tale of two games. Let's meet somewhere in the middle with an ugly low-scoring game.
Pick : Bears win 20-17 but fail to cover the spread.
The Bengals played over their heads defensively in Week 12 and also got a special teams touchdown to cover against the Giants. The Dolphins get pretty methodically in opponents they should beat under Brian Flores. Whether it's more of Ryan Fitzpatrick or Tua Tagovailoa, there will be a limited burden on Miami's quarterbacks. Look for the Dolphins to grind this out with whoever's running the ball with a few pass plays to score enough.
Pick : Dolphins win 24-10 and cover the spread.
The Colts are becoming a hard team to predict from week to week. They took enough defensive hits with inactives in Week 12 to roll over against the Titans. This week, they should go back to establishing the run well against a weak Texans front to ease the pressure on Philip Rivers. Their secondary and linebackers can contain Deshaun Watson's deep passing and scrambling just enough to avoid the upset.
Pick : Colts win 27-24 and cover the spread.
The Vikings had two fluky fumbles go for touchdowns against them against the Panthers, making the game much closer than it should have been. The Jaguars simply cannot stop the Vikings' principal playmakers for Kirk Cousins, led by Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. The Vikings' defense is containing much better with their zone defense to stop any threat of a Mike Glennon comeback.
Pick : Vikings win 31-14 and cover the spread.
The Raiders will try this again after falling flat on the East Coast against the Falcons. The Jets also can contain their running game but look for Derek Carr to get refocused in spreading the ball around downfield with fewer mistakes. The Jets continue to show less life with Adam Gase and Sam Darnold so it's hard to expect them to get off the mat with Jon Gruden pushing his team to play a lot better.
Pick : Raiders win 24-14 and cover the spread.
The Saints thrashed the Falcons two weeks ago in Taysom Hill's first start. This will be trickier on the road after the Falcons stopped the run well against the Raiders and Matt Ryan will provide more offensive resistance. The problem is, the Saints' passing game and defense will continue to come through when needed and has too much at stake with the No. 1 seed to let up against their archrivals.
Pick : Saints win 27-20 and cover the spread.
The Rams' defense is rolling. The Cardinals' offense is slowing down as Kyler Murray has a bad shoulder. But it's easier to trust Murray to rebound at home vs. Jared Goff and his boom-or-bust nature to be better on the road. Arizona is gathering more defensive playmakers and Los Angeles will try to use Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey to rattle Murray and shut down DeAndre Hopkins. The Cardinals get it done with the more reliable running and short-to-intermediate passing game.
The Patriots travel cross country in trying to further breathe life into their limited playoff hopes. This screams of them grinding the game out with Cam Newton and their traditional running game and leaning more on their improved defensive scheming vs. Justin Herbert. The Patriots can help their QB better with running as they compress the opposing offense around Herbert.
Pick : Patriots win 23-20 and cover the spread.
The Broncos hope to have a quarterback to start in Week 13, but it doesn't really matter when the best quarterback on the planet, Patrick Mahomes is playing host on the other side. Drew Lock will be eager to get back in there in his home state, but he'll be taking major lumps against an aggressive pass rush playing with a big lead.
Pick : Chiefs win 34-17 and cover the spread.
The Steelers are coming off a short week having played Tuesday against the Ravens. WFT has had a long week to recover since Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, Washington's offense doesn't match up well against the Steelers' run-stopping and pass-rushing defense up front. Ben Roethlisberger will be very comfortable getting the ball out and spreading it around, while Alex Smith won't have that kind of time.
Pick : Steelers win 27-13 and cover the spread.
Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET, Fox/NFL Network
The Cowboys will have a long layoff from Thanksgiving playing this game four days later than expected. The Ravens will hope to have enough healthy bodies to field a competitive team that more resembles their best self. For now, it's hard to think John Harbaugh and their staff will get out-coached by the mess Mike McCarthy is operating in Dallas. There's too much pride and desperation here in trying to get an AFC wild-card berth to think Baltimore will fall, leaning much on its running game and defense here.

By

Anthony Riccobono
@tony_riccobono

11/30/21 AT 1:29 PM

© Copyright 2022 IBTimes LLC. All Rights Reserved.
The NFL Week 13 point spreads suggest the upcoming schedule will feature several one-sided matchups. Six teams are favored by at least a touchdown, including four betting lines north of nine points. Only one underdog is getting less than three points.
Here are picks against the spread for every game in Week 13, as well as updated betting odds. Betting lines come from FanDuel Sportsbook .
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints
In two matchups with Dallas since 2018, New Orleans has held Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to 23 total points. Dallas’ defense is among the league’s worst when it doesn’t force turnovers. Only four teams have fewer giveaways than the Saints. Perhaps Taysom Hill and a returning Alvin Kamara can jumpstart the offense and put a scare into the Cowboys.
Minnesota Vikings (-7) at Detroit Lions
Almost every one of Minnesota’s games has been close, including their 19-17 win over Detroit in Week 5. The Vikings’ defense ranks 26th in opponents' yards per play and makes it difficult for Minnesota to win games easily. Even though the Lions can’t find their way into the win column, Detroit has only been outscored by five points in its last three games.
Arizona Cardinals (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
Assuming Kyler Murray is back, Arizona should win this game by double digits, which it has already done seven times. The Cardinals are averaging 30.8 points with Murray under center. The Bears haven’t topped the 20-point mark in any of the four games during which Andy Dalton has received significant playing time.
Indianapolis Colts (-9.5) at Houston Texans
This game could look similar to Indianapolis’ 31-3 drubbing of Houston in Week 6. The Colts are 4-0 against the AFC’s bottom-four teams, winning those contests by an average score of 32-17. The Texans are 1-6 against teams that have a .500 record or better, and five of those losses have come by double digits.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10.5) at Atlanta Falcons
This line is probably too high, given that Tampa Bay is still dealing with injuries to key defensive players. The Bucs have only one win by more than a touchdown since Week 8. The Falcons could stay competitive, just as they were in last year’s 31-27 home loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at New York Jets
It’s hard to lay a touchdown with the Eagles since Jalen Hurts could potentially miss the game with a sore ankle. Upset by the Giants when they were seemingly on a path toward the playoffs, Philadelphia might be the most unpredictable team in football.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
Considering these two teams are pretty similar, the best bet is to take the points. The Bengals have won two straight games against a pair of mediocre opponents. The Chargers’ offense ranks fifth in yards per play and is due to bounce back from a rough performance in Denver.
New York Giants (+3) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have given up 11.5 points per game during their four-game winning streak. The Giants are averaging 15.8 points over the last four contests. Tua Tagovailoa has completed more than 80% of his passes in two straight games. Daniel Jones has been unproductive for an extended period of time, averaging just 180.8 passing yards in the last five games.
Washington Football Team (+2.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders have a four-day rest advantage after playing on Thanksgiving and Washington’s Monday night game. Washington is 0-3 against the AFC West, averaging just 13 points per game. Washington is 0-3 on the road against teams with winning records.

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Week 13 Expert Picks Against The Spread

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