Week 12 Against The Spread
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Week 12 Against The Spread
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By Sheil Kapadia
Nov 21, 2019
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Listen, I’ve said all along that I need 10 weeks to get warmed up before I finally get going. Let’s get to the picks. Last week: 11-3Season: 81-78-3 As always, home teams are listed first, and stats are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise noted. Texans (-3.5) vs. Colts I loved this story from The Athletic’s Stephen Holder about what Colts players eat for their pregame meals. Safety Malik Hooker told Holder he eats cereal, and Holder asked the natural follow-up, leading to this: “Um, Cocoa Puffs,” Hooker muttered, hanging his head in shame. “I know, I know. Who the hell wakes up and eats Cocoa Puffs before a game?” Everyone’s new favorite safety, that’s who. As for this game, the Texans are coming off of a blowout loss in Baltimore, but the Colts are banged-up. They’ll be without running back Marlon Mack, and as of this writing it’s unclear whether T.Y.
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N.F.L. Week 12 Predictions: Our Picks Against the Spread
Baltimore’s game against Pittsburgh is delayed until at least Tuesday and the Broncos have to play New Orleans without a quarterback as the N.F.L.’s struggles with the coronavirus continue.
A pair of blowouts on Thanksgiving served as a fairly entertaining start to a week that includes must-watch matchups like the Kansas City Chiefs facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans playing the Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, the league is still struggling mightily with the coronavirus. Baltimore’s game against Pittsburgh has been delayed until at least Tuesday, and Denver will not have an active quarterback on their roster for a game against New Orleans.
Here’s a look at N.F.L. Week 12 with all picks made against the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers , 4:25 p.m., CBS
Tom Brady can clearly still do many things effectively. He already has more touchdown passes, 25, for the Buccaneers (7-4) than he had all of last season for the Patriots, and Tampa Bay is averaging 29.1 points a game. There is no reason to believe Brady won’t be able to lead the team to its first playoff appearance since 2007.
Though Brady still has clear value, it is worth noting that he has already thrown more interceptions than he did last year, and is throwing them at his highest rate since 2009. More troubling — given his team’s star-studded collection of pass catchers — is his complete inability to stretch the field. According to the N.F.L.’s Next Gen Stats, Brady’s last 22 pass attempts of 20 or more yards have fallen incomplete — the longest such stretch for any quarterback since 2017.
Tampa Bay has risen to the occasion against several good teams — delivering convincing wins against the Panthers, the Raiders and the Packers — and looked fairly inept in losses to the Rams, the Saints (twice) and the Bears. The Chiefs (9-1) on the other hand, have no such problems with consistency. Ahead of the playoffs, Kansas City might want to work out the trouble it had slowing down the offense of its division rivals in Las Vegas, but the Chiefs are a sterling 8-0 against other teams, with Patrick Mahomes presumably on the way to his second Most Valuable Player Award.
At their best, the Buccaneers could beat the Chiefs, but knowing when the best version of Tampa Bay will show up is impossible. Pick: Chiefs -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills , 1 p.m., CBS
When last seen, the Bills (7-3) were having their hearts broken by Kyler’s “Hail Murray” pass to DeAndre Hopkins. Just how much momentum that play sucked away from Buffalo will be determined this weekend in a home game against the Chargers (3-7), who have had too many injuries on defense to be relevant, but have enough offensive talent alongside quarterback Justin Herbert to cause problems for any opponent.
It is expected to be 49 degrees and clear at game time in Orchard Park, N.Y., conditions that will keep the passing game in play and lead to a fairly entertaining shootout between Herbert and the Bills’ Josh Allen. Buffalo is likely to win, but the score should be closer than oddsmakers are predicting. Pick: Chargers +5.5
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts , 1 p.m., CBS
Despite an ugly start last weekend, the Colts (7-3) showed how great their defense can be in a thrilling win over Green Bay. After falling behind, 28-14, at halftime, Indianapolis limited the Packers to a field goal on five second-half possessions and forced a fumble in overtime to set up a game-winning field goal. The Colts, who will be without star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner who is on the Covid-19 reserve list, face another stiff test this week from the Titans (7-3), who shook off a bit of a cold streak by beating Baltimore in overtime. To add some spice, this game could go a long way to determining which of these teams win the A.F.C. South.
The Colts are a much more balanced team. They’re playing at home, and it is easy to imagine their offense putting up a huge number of points against Tennessee’s banged-up defense. Ultimately, the Colts have a few too many advantages in this matchup to doubt them. Pick: Colts -3.5
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams , 4:05 p.m., Fox
There is a difference between a bad team and one that is simply overcome by injuries, and San Francisco (4-6) has been more of the latter in its letdown season. The Upshot still gives the 49ers an 11 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason , but the team is more suited to a different role: spoiler.
This week, the 49ers travel to Los Angeles to face the surging Rams (7-3) who have pulled even with Seattle at the top of the N.F.C. West . San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo remains out with a high ankle sprain, but the team appears to be getting running backs Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Jeff Wilson back from their injuries. If wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is cleared from the Covid-19 reserve list in time for this game, Coach Kyle Shanahan could devise a run-heavy game plan using those four players to make up for the current weakness at quarterback.
Will that be enough to beat the Rams? Maybe not. To make a division rival sweat a little? Absolutely. Pick: 49ers +7
Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons , 1 p.m., CBS
There is no such thing as a moral victory, but the Raiders (6-4) should be holding their heads high after very nearly beating the Chiefs in a game that came down to which team had the ball last. Had Las Vegas gotten one more possession, the score easily could have gone the other way.
After hanging with the Chiefs, the Raiders shouldn’t find the Falcons (3-7) to be much of a problem.
Atlanta is 1-4 in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the team’s porous secondary will be in trouble trying to slow down Raiders quarterback Derek Carr. The unclear status of Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones’s injured hamstring makes Atlanta’s efficacy just as questionable. Pick : Raiders -3
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers , 8:20 p.m., NBC
Aaron Rodgers is coming off a disappointing loss, is going up against a division rival that might be starting a third-string quarterback and is playing in prime time. You might expect fireworks in such a situation, but enthusiasm should be tempered considering Chicago’s defense commands respect regardless of the team’s four-game losing streak.
With respect for the fact that Green Bay (7-3) can score 25 or more points against just about any team, the question is how many points Chicago can score against the Packers’ inconsistent defense. Chicago might get running back David Montgomery back this week, but the choice for the Bears (5-5) at quarterback will come down to the health of Nick Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. If neither can go, Tyler Bray will presumably start. All three, at this point in their careers, are bad. The scoring should be fairly low, but it could still result in a lopsided win for Green Bay. Pick: Packers -8.5
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings , 1 p.m., Fox
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Christian McCaffrey both practiced on Wednesday, but it’s possible that Carolina (4-7) will hold either or both out of the game since the Panthers’ Week 13 bye would give both a chance to get closer to 100 percent. Should Bridgewater be active, however, he could do quite a bit of damage against the Vikings (4-6), even without McCaffrey, as the Panthers have a fairly underrated collection of receivers. If Bridgewater is out, the math changes. Pick: Panthers +4
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars , 1 p.m., CBS
After slogging through three consecutive home games played in cold, wet conditions, the Browns (7-3) might feel as if they are on vacation when they visit the Jaguars (1-9). The expected game-time temperature of 76 degrees will be helpful, and Jacksonville’s horrible defense should relax Cleveland even more. That the Jaguars appear set to start Mike Glennon at quarterback makes any thought of an upset laughable. Anything can happen, but Cleveland should romp. Pick: Browns -7
Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots , 1 p.m., Fox
As recently as last season, a visit from a first- or second-year quarterback to Foxborough, Mass., could be marked down as a win for New England before kickoff. That mastery of young quarterbacks has fallen away this year, and Kyler Murray and the Cardinals (6-4) head into New England as favorites. Arizona hasn’t been a dependable performer, but the Patriots (4-6) struggle far more to be competitive on a week-to-week basis. Pick: Cardinals -2.5
New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos , 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Saints (8-2), who have won seven straight, didn’t slow down much after a switch to Taysom Hill at starting quarterback last week against the Falcons. The Broncos (4-6) don’t have nearly as good of a Plan B, as the team will not have a single quarterback active for this game. Jeff Driskel tested positive for Covid-19 on Thursday and all three of Denver’s other quarterbacks were ruled out as close contacts. As a result, wide receiver Kendall Hinton, who played quarterback at Wake Forest, is expected to take the majority of the snaps under center for Denver, provided the game is not postponed. Pick: Saints -5.5
Miami Dolphins at Jets , 1 p.m., CBS
Proving that nearly all evaluation is done via the scoreboard, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s passing statistics for Miami (6-4) in last week’s loss to Denver were not appreciably different from what he delivered against the Rams three weeks before, but this time around he was benched in the fourth quarter rather than lauded for leading his team to a win. The switch back to Ryan Fitzpatrick was temporary — and didn’t work — so Tagovailoa will get his fifth straight start. If Tagovailoa is ever going to have a big week, it will probably come against the Jets (0-10). Pick: Dolphins -7
Giants at Cincinnati Bengals , 1 p.m., Fox
Quarterback Brandon Allen was on Cincinnati’s practice squad two weeks ago, but now he will start for the Bengals (2-7-1) against the suddenly competent Giants (3-7). The downgrade from Joe Burrow — who is out for the year with a severe knee injury (and may not be ready for the start of next season) — is palpable. And that’s terrible news when going against the Giants, who have either won or lost by a single score in every game since Week 3. Pick: Giants -5.5
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles , 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Seahawks (7-3) have proven themselves fairly flawed contenders in recent weeks, but nearly all of their problems are on defense. That hardly seems like a factor against the Eagles (3-6-1). Philadelphia is plagued by more than injuries. Quarterback Carson Wentz had shown some decline, but it has turned into a cliff-dive this season, and his numbers lump him in with some of the worst starting quarterbacks in the N.F.L. Even if Wentz can find some relief in the form of Seattle’s secondary — hardly a given — it is hard to imagine him keeping up with Russell Wilson. Pick: Seahawks -6
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8 p.m., NBC
It has been a rough stretch for the Ravens (6-4), and things seem unlikely to get any easier this week. On the heels of losing for the third time in four games since the team’s bye week, Baltimore had its facilities closed because of multiple positive coronavirus tests among the players and staff members. Out of an “abundance of caution,” the N.F.L. delayed this game from Thursday night until Sunday and then again until Tuesday night. The N.F.L. is trying hard to make sure this game is played, but in the league’s announcement of the postponement to Tuesday, there was language acknowledging that it might be further delayed. In the release it said Baltimore’s Week 13 matchup with Dallas, scheduled for Thursday of next week, would be affected “should the game be played.”
As many as 18 Ravens players will be out because of positive tests or close contacts. That list includes quarterback Lamar Jackson and running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins, each of whom tested positive for the virus. Their absence will dramatically weaken the team’s offense.
The Steelers (10-0) would have been favored even without Baltimore’s run of bad luck, but considering everything happening in the Ravens’ orbit, Pittsburgh has a fairly obvious advantage in its quest to become the first 11-0 team since the 2015 Carolina Panthers. They just need the game to be played. Pick: Steelers -5.5
Footballers 41, Cowboys 16 While Dallas played well last week, we predicted that Washington, as the most complete team in the pitiful N.F.C. East, would come away with a win on the road. Our pick of Washington +3 proved wise when running back Antonio Gibson ran all over the Dallas defense (136 yards from scrimmage, three touchdowns) and Andy Dalton and the Cowboys weren’t able to keep pace.
In one of the stranger plays you’ll see (above), the Cowboys, trailing by just 20-16 in the fourth quarter, tried a fake punt at their own 24-yard line. Wide receiver Cedrick Wilson was stopped for a 1-yard loss on the trick play and Washington’s Gibson scored one play later. The Footballers added two more touchdowns in the final quarter in what ended up being a blowout.
Texans 41, Lions 25 With J.J. Watt seeming fully healthy for the first time in ages, and Deshaun Watson at the top of his game, we predicted Houston would have no problem beating the Lions in Detroit. Not only did Texans -3 pay off, but the win was powered by Watt, who had the second pick-6 interception of his career, and Watson, who passed for 318 yards and four touchdowns.
Houston drew 10 penalties in the game, but the Texans’ defense balanced that out with three turnovers. That was a huge problem on a day when Detroit’s secondary had absolutely no answer for Houston wide receiver Will Fuller V, who had six catches for 171 yards and two touchdowns. The loss dropped Detroit to 4-7. As a result, it wasn’t a surprise when the team fired Coach Matt Patricia and General Manager Bob Quinn on Saturday.
A quick primer for those who are not familiar with betting lines: Favorites are listed next to a negative number that represents how many points they must win by to cover the spread. Chiefs -3.5, for example, means that Kansas City must beat Tampa Bay by at least 4 points for its backers to win their bet. Gamblers can also bet on the total score, or whether the teams’ combined score in the game is over or under a preselected number of points.
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