Week 10 College Picks Against The Spread

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Mario Cristobal's Ducks return to the field for their abbreviated 2020 schedule this year. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

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by Ryan Bolta
in
College Football

PAC-12 football is here, and there’s no better time to take advantage of the slate.
It’s easy for oddsmakers to get things right when they’ve had time to watch the teams and pour over the analytics. That’s why it’s awesome to try and get the jump and make some money right out of the gate.
Here are three picks from the opening weekend of PAC-12 action that you should consider betting.
All odds taken Nov. 4th at DraftKings
The Oregon Ducks are a good football team. The conference title odds tell you that. Fading them in their first game of the season isn’t meant to suggest they can’t have a competitive season.
It is however a strong belief that things are going to take time to come together in Eugene. The case can be made the Ducks lost more talent from last season than any other program in college football outside of the LSU Tigers.
• Still only 19 years old (++) • In sync upper and lower half mover • Run game movement generation (+) • Plays the game pissed off (++) • Effective 2nd & 3rd level climber • Always aware of stunts/twists (+) • Extreme comfort in space pic..com/QDtpUPNdx1
— Jordan Reid (@JReidNFL) September 7, 2020
The most obvious omission from the roster is quarterback Justin Herbert who is now plying his trade for the Los Angeles Chargers. Seeing the success Herbert has had at the next level goes to show he’ll be a tough one to replace.
Tyler Shough has potential to be a great college quarterback but it will take time. Left Tackle Penei Sewell will likely be a top five selection in the 2021 NFL draft and he opted out of the season to prepare for that next step.
Joining him in opting out were defensive backs Thomas Graham, Jevon Holland and Brady Breeze. The Ducks recruit well and have talent to fill in, but they may not be as talented and definitely won’t be as capable right out of the gate. Take Stanford to cover the number while Oregon works in the new talent.
There are a few rules in play with the decision to take Colorado as a home underdog against UCLA. First and foremost, it’s never a bad time to bet against Chip Kelly.
It’s his third season opener as the head of the Bruins program and he’s never started the season 1-0. More seriously though, giving up almost a touchdown requires an amount of faith in a defense that quite frankly just doesn’t deserve it.
UCLA ranked 113th in total defense last year. They bring back 10 of their top 13 tacklers but it’s tough to know it’s that’s good news or bad when looking at their numbers on that side of the ball.
It’s GAME WEEK‼️#GoBruins pic..com/ttQLj11w07
— UCLA Football (@UCLAFootball) November 2, 2020
Colorado on the other hand has some promise heading into this season. Karl Dorrell is the new head coach and opens his tenure against his former team. Dorrell went 35-27 at UCLA from 2003-2007. He’ll be working with a senior quarterback in Sam Noyer who will finally be handed the reigns are playing pieces of three seasons.
Noyer is a dual-threat who is 6’4 and 200 pounds. While he may not have the skill to wow scouts at the next level, he certainly appears to possess attributes that could cause the Bruins fits in this one. Bet on the Buffaloes to keep this one tight and consider the +100 price tag a cherry on top of the sundae.
Two good teams, two good quarterbacks. Let’s start with each teams most important offensive weapon. USC returns starter Kedon Slovis who compiled 3,502 passing yards and 30 touchdowns last season. His one issue was interceptions, as he threw 9 of them in total and must do a better job protecting the football.
On the opposite sideline Arizona State bring back Jayden Daniels who had 2,943 passing yards and a 17/2 touchdown to interception ratio last year. In addition to his ability to throw the ball, Daniels rushed for 355 yards and three more scores on the ground. This matchup pits potentially the two most skilled returning quarterbacks in the conference.
Most completions of 25+ yards by returning Power 5 QBs in 2019
▫️ Trevor Lawrence – 39 ▫️ Sam Howell – 38 ▫️ Jayden Daniels – 37 ▫️ Sam Ehlinger – 37 pic..com/BiCQIZU4t7
— PFF College (@PFF_College) July 1, 2020
Both teams have weapons to put up points, so this should be a shootout right? Not so fast. This one is scheduled to kickoff at noon eastern which is 9:00 AM pacific time. The Trojans will be in the huddle around the same time they would usually by huddling around the breakfast buffet. It’s a season opener being played bright and early for these two teams. Expect the game to be sloppier than you might expect, which makes getting 10.5 with the Sun Devils an inviting proposition.
The Pick: Arizona State +10.5 (-107)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
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The college football season enters the midpoint this week, and Week 10 slate features two matchups between ranked teams.
No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia meet in the "World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" at 3:30 p.m. on CBS with the SEC East and a potential College Football Playoff berth on the line on the line. The AAC will get the primetime spotlight , with No. 15 SMU traveling to No. 24 Memphis (7:30 p.m., ABC). Other than that, nine AP Top 25 teams are on a bye this week.
Here is a look at our record so far this season:
Straight up: 139-38, .785 (9-7 last week) Against the spread: 97-80, .548 (10-6 last week) Upset picks: 2-11, .154 (0-2 last week)
With that, Sporting News' Week 10 picks against the spread for every top-25 team (odds provided courtesy of Sportsbook Review as of 10 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 29) .
The Bears are 2-3 against the spread as favorites this season, and the Mountaineers have been blown out by an average of 24.3 points per game the last three weeks. Both teams had a bye week, and that leads to a tighter Big 12 contest.
Baylor wins 31-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Georgia Southern won this matchup 34-14 last season in a rain-soaked game, and they have warmed up with three straight victories. The Mountaineers are 3-2 against the spread as favorites this season, and this will be tight into the second half.
Appalachian State wins 34-21 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
The Wolverines are coming off a big win , but there is a hint of an emotional letdown here knowing they are 6-9-1 against the spread as road favorites under Jim Harbaugh. Mike Locksley and Josh Gattis feuded in the offseason, so this feels like the Terps' all-in game. The back-door cover possibility will be there, but we like what the Wolverines found last week against the Irish.
Michigan wins 38-14 and COVERS the spread.
This is a big game for the Demon Deacons, knowing they still have an outside chance at the Playoff as long as they retain just one loss. The ACC has been as unpredictable as ever, but Wake Forest is 4-1 at home and poised to break that streak.
Wake Forest wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
The Irish can’t let the Michigan loss bleed into a game against a Virginia Tech team they embarrassed 45-23 last season. The Hokies have won three straight games, and that line could tick down before kickoff. Virginia Tech can hang around because of their running game.
Notre Dame wins 33-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
WEEK 10 PROJECTIONS: Bowls | Playoff
This is Florida’s big opportunity after losing the last two meetings with the Bulldogs. The line has jumped up a few points from its open, and Georgia has given up 20 points or fewer in every game this season. It’s tough knowing Florida is 2-0 against the spread as an underdog, and those games were against Auburn and LSU. We just like Georgia a little more.
Georgia wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
Les Miles has led Kansas to three victories , which is a big story on its own. The Jayhawks are playing loose, but they are catching Kansas State at the wrong time. The Wildcats extend their winning streak to 11 in this rivalry. After five straight games as an underdog, K-State enjoys being a favorite.
Kansas State wins 34-24 and COVERS the spread.
It’s a get-in, get-out game for the Tigers against Wofford, which is 5-2 on the season. Dabo Swinney can use anything for motivation at this point, right?
Clemson wins 55-10 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Washington has won four in a row in this series and will have the advantage of playing at home. The Utes, however, have given up just 23 points in four games since losing to USC. Utah is more motivated here, too.
Utah wins 22-15 and COVERS the spread.
The Bearcats are alive in the New Year’s Day 6 bowl conversation. The Bearcats are 5-2 against the spread and had a bye week to get ready for this business trip on the road. That spread looks a touch high.
Cincinnati wins 38-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
The Tigers suffered their second loss of the season on Saturday. Aside from the 59-31 loss to Alabama, the Rebels haven't lost a game by more than 11 points this season. Perhaps they hang around a little bit longer against the Tigers.
Auburn wins 33-16 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
SMU and Memphis get the primetime treatment in what should be a fast-paced thriller. The Tigers have been favored in every game and are 5-3 against the spread. Brady White outplays Shane Buechele in a shootout.
Memphis wins 45-38 and COVERS the spread.
Oregon is in the Playoff mix, and games against USC always make the most impact. USC rallied from a 10-point deficit against Colorado and needs this one for bowl eligibility. The Ducks show off for the committee here.
Oregon wins 34-21 and COVERS the spread.
The Spartans are 0-13 against the Broncos, for those interested in the money line. If Boise State wants to impress the Playoff committee, then the Broncos have to pour it on here. They will.
Boise State wins 40-19 and COVERS the spread.

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