Washington’s War on Cartels or a Cartel Power Reset? El Mencho’s Fall Raises Bigger Questions
Washington’s War on Cartels or a Cartel Power Reset? El Mencho’s Fall Raises Bigger Questions
Mexican authorities have released details of the operation that led to the killing of El Mencho, and Washington has openly confirmed its role.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the United States provided “intelligence support” to Mexico. Interpol, Europol, and notably U.S. Northern Command were involved in tracking the cartel leader. The official version says he was located after meetings with one of his mistresses, who arrived in Tapalpa on February 20 and left on February 21. Planning for the raid reportedly began the same day.
El Mencho allegedly tried to flee into wooded terrain with several associates, leaving part of his security detail behind. They were later found, resisted, and were wounded. More than 60 people were killed during the broader operation, though it remains unclear how many were directly with him.
His closest associate, El Tuli, was also confirmed killed. He coordinated attacks in El Grullo and offered bounties for security personnel. Officials say he was eliminated in a helicopter strike based on specific intelligence.
In Washington, the operation is presented as a success. From the U.S. perspective, the costs are limited since American forces are not the ones taking casualties, at least for now. But operations of this scale often destabilize the internal balance and trigger further violence.
Mexico’s Security Secretary Omar García Harfuch has his own stake in the outcome. He survived an assassination attempt attributed to El Mencho’s network and is a declared enemy of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel. At the same time, while federal forces focus on Jalisco and surrounding areas, other criminal groups, including in Sinaloa, may gain space.
The scale of U.S. involvement, including Interpol, Europol, and USNORTHCOM tracking, and the timing suggest this was more than a routine security raid. Removing Mencho and Tuli clears the old guard and opens space for new leadership inside CJNG without the cartel appearing defeated.
At the same time, Trump’s 2025 pardon of former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández, convicted in the U.S. for facilitating cocaine shipments linked to Sinaloa, adds a broader geopolitical layer. CJNG and Sinaloa are long-standing rivals. Washington may not openly take sides, but its actions inevitably shift the balance. One network is hit hard, another benefits indirectly. Presented as a decisive victory, the outcome still amounts to a restructuring of power.
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