Virginia Vs Texas Tech Point Spread

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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: De’Andre Hunter, Matt Mooney, Jarrett Culver
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It’s being billed as “The Ugliest National Championship” in history. It features two defensive stalwarts, with one operating at a historically slow pace. That doesn’t mean we can’t make money off it, right?
Virginia is a short favorite over Texas Tech, but should the Cavaliers be getting a little more respect?
Our analysts dive in to break down the X’s and O’s, discuss a key Texas Tech injury and try to set a true line. Let’s get to it.
Many bettors don’t care how historically low this total is. After opening 120, it was bet down to 117 and rebounded Sunday to 118.
The spread has ping ponged between Virginia -1 and -1.5, with the Texas Tech moneyline sitting at even money. Most books were originally offering plus-money at +105 and lowered it despite not moving the spread.
Check out live data and odds on our game page.
We’ve touched on it before, but it bears repeating. Under Chris Beard, Texas Tech is 9-0 against the second half spread in the NCAA Tournament, covering by 7.9 points per game.
In his career, Beard is 33-8-1 (80.5%) against the second half spread when facing a non-conference opponent, including 24-4 (85.2%) when facing non-conference opponents on the road or a neutral court. — Evan Abrams
With 5:24 left in its Final Four contest, Virginia held a 10-point lead against Auburn. But Tony Bennett’s unit subsequently went silent for five-plus minutes — only to be saved by Kyle Guy’s heroics.
The Cavaliers proved they’re just as susceptible to a scoring drought as Texas Tech, and it’ll be an issue against a Red Raiders team that pressures the ball more than any team they’ve faced in the NCAA Tournament.
Texas Tech forced Michigan State into countless contested jump shots because of Sparty’s inability to feed the ball inside cleanly, and Virginia bigs De’Andre Hunter and Mamadi Diakete likely won’t boast much room to operate, either. After all, MSU was limited to a season-low 0.85 points per possession.
Even though Virginia owns the ninth-highest 3-point clip (39.3%), look for Texas Tech do-it-all wing Jarrett Culver to lockdown on either one of its hot shooters in Kyle Guy or Ty Jerome.
Beard threw a wrench at Spartans coach Tom Izzo by putting Culver on point guard Cassius Winston, so he won’t hesitate to throw Culver on whichever UVA shooter finds his rhythm first.
The Cavaliers have had a double-digit turnover performance just once in the big dance (vs. Gardner Webb), but led by Culver’s ball pressure, Texas Tech’s 11th-ranked opponents’ turnover rate should find a way to wreak havoc. — Eli Hershkovich
Texas Tech’s 6-foot-10 Tariq Owens is expected to play after suffering an ankle injury against MSU on Saturday, which will help Tech maintain its elite interior defense. He has the 10th-best block rate in the country.
Owens was seen in a walking boot on Sunday, so it remains to be seen if he’ll be at 100%. Coach Chris Beard said if it were any other game, Owens would not play.
Owens is not just Tech’s best defender — he’s one of the biggest difference-makers in the country. He leads the nation with a +10.3 defensive plus/minus, so his team is 10+ points worse per 100 possessions without him, and he’s fourth in overall plus/minus. He’s not quite Zion Williamson by that metric, but he’s not all that far behind.
Texas Tech relies so heavily on its defense and doesn’t have a rim protector like Owens anywhere on the bench. The Red Raiders need him at 100%. — Steve Petrella
The Red Raiders have suffered scoring droughts in each NCAA Tournament game, but have offset that with timely second-half scoring explosions.
On Monday night, Texas Tech will face a Virginia defense that ranks 235th in forcing turnovers. The Red Raiders will be able to run their offense comfortably and create spacing for their outstanding 3-point shooters. Davide Moretti ranks eighth in the country in 3P%, while Matt Mooney (38.8% 3P) was 4-of-8 from deep against Michigan State.
The most important part of Texas Tech’s offense will center around Culver, the Big 12 Player of the Year. The 6-foot-5 sophomore has struggled from the floor in the past two games, shooting 26.3% (5-of-19) against Gonzaga and then 25% (3-of-12) in the win against Michigan State.
Defenses are forcing him to take long 3-pointers, choosing to live with his mediocre 31.6% 3P efficiency, and you’d have to imagine Virginia’s pack-line defense will make him do the same. Texas Tech needs to get him touches on the block and try to get its leading scorer into an early rhythm. That would open up the driving lanes and 3-point opportunities for others. — Mike Randle
We all know these teams extremely well by this point after seeing them for the last month. Both are elite defensively and it wouldn’t surprise me to see either win. But from a pure numbers standpoint, I have to play Virginia.
This is a market overreaction to another fortunate Virginia win and another impressive TTU cover and win. Books were right to open at -1.5 and -1 because folks are betting Tech, but the lookahead line was 3.5 headed into the Final Four (yes, low limits), and I personally make it UVA -3.2.
Remember that the market closed Michigan State -2 against Texas Tech. This is implying that Sparty would be favored by a half a point over UVA on a neutral court now, which I don’t buy.
I just don’t think you can adjust this game more than a half point from what happened on Saturday. UVA moneyline for me. — Stuckey
These ratings were built by Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, a former oddsmaker and FantasyPros’ most accurate in-season fantasy football ranker from 2015-2017.
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Apr 8, 2019 at 6:10 pm ET 3 min read
The 2019 NCAA Championship Game takes place on Monday when the 1-seed Virginia Cavaliers take on the 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders. Tipoff for the final game of the 2019 NCAA Tournament is scheduled for 9:20 p.m. ET and the Cavaliers are 1.5-point favorites with the total at 118.5 in the latest Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds, down from an open of 119. Kyle Guy sank three critical free throws with 0.6 seconds left to propel Virginia to a victory over Auburn on Saturday in the 2019 Final Four. Meanwhile, Texas Tech smothered Michigan State to earn the Red Raiders' first-ever berth in a national championship game. Oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring defensive slugfest on Monday night, evidenced by one of the lowest March Madness totals we've seen. With so much on the line look at the Virginia vs. Texas Tech odds from SportsLine's proven computer simulation before you make your 2019 NCAA championship predictions.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has raked in the winnings for those following its picks. Over the past two years, the SportsLine Projection Model has returned over $4,000 to $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks. It entered the postseason on an 11-5 run on top-rated plays, and It's been spot-on in the 2019 NCAA Tournament, calling Auburn's huge upset of Kentucky in the Elite 8 and nailing 14 Sweet 16 teams. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has crunched the numbers for Texas Tech vs. Virginia. We can tell you the model is leaning over, but it has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. That pick is available only at SportsLine.
The model knows the Cavaliers will rely on their timely shot-making on offense to get past a stubborn Red Raiders team. Virginia is well-known for its defense, but its offense actually ranked third in the country in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom because of its ability to create high-quality looks.
That sometimes goes unnoticed because Virginia ranked dead-last in Division I in adjusted tempo, choosing to play methodically in order to reduce the number of possessions in a game. But Kyle Guy (15.2 points per game), De'Andre Hunter (14.9) and Ty Jerome (13.5) all shoot at least 40 percent from 3-point range, so it will be tough for the Red Raiders to account for all three on any given trip down the floor. Virginia is also a sterling 25-12 against the spread this season, including 23-12 as a favorite. They're also 11-3 against the spread after fewer than four days off, as will be the case in the 2019 NCAA Championship game.
But just because the Cavaliers have a top-shelf defense doesn't mean they'll cover the Texas Tech vs. Virginia spread on Monday.
The model also knows that no team is as hot as the Red Raiders, who have won 14 of their last 15 and covered 11 straight versus winning teams. Texas Tech, which leads the nation in defensive efficiency, has held four of its five 2019 NCAA Tournament opponents to 58 or fewer points and just harassed Michigan State into 31.9 percent shooting from the floor, the Spartans' season-low.
Leading scorer Jarrett Culver was held to 10 points in the national semifinal, but senior Matt Mooney matched his season high with 22 points as he drained 4-of-8 three-pointers. While UVA's last three wins have been decided by five or fewer points, the Red Raiders' closest call was a six-point win over another 1-seed, Gonzaga.
Texas Tech (31-6) executes when it matters most. In the second half against the Spartans, Texas Tech scored 38 points in just 30 possessions, continuing a pattern of impressive second-half play.
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