Virginia Basketball Point Spread

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Apr 7, 2019,06:43am EDT|42 590 views
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The college basketball National Championship game is set for Monday, April 8 and Virginia is a 1-point favorite over Texas Tech. The total has been bet down from the opener of 119 and the current over/under of 118 is the lowest in NCAA championship game history.
The betting buzz surrounding the Final Four and March Madness saw two more fantastic finishes as the close contests continued following an exciting Elite Eight. Now the big bets are coming in for the championship game and more will follow on game day Monday.
MGM in Las Vegas took a major wager Saturday night following the conclusion of Texas Tech’s victory over Michigan State. MGM is one of the few sportsbooks to move to Virginia -1.5.
And we have a #MajorWager on #NCAATournament #MarchMadness final of TEXTECH-VA, per @MGMRaceSports @scottatmirage: “Just took $165,000 on Virginia-1. Now -1.5.” @Covers
— Patrick Everson (@Covers_Vegas) April 7, 2019
In the Final Four, MGM also took a $55,000 bet on Texas Tech (+2.5) over Michigan State, and a $96,000 moneyline wager on Virginia (-250) over Auburn. The Virginia bettor escaped along with the Cavaliers 63-62 when an apparent double-dribble by Virginia’s point guard was not called in the closing seconds prior to Auburn’s foul and three made free throws by the Cavaliers Kyle Guy.
Sportsbetting.ag reports that since 1991 the lowest posted total in championship history has been 128 points.
The over/under is 12-16 in National Championship game history.
The 1-point spread between Virginia and Texas Tech matches the smallest point spread since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Favorites are 24-10 straight up and 15-19 against the spread (ATS) in National Championship game history.
No. 1 seeds are 21-12 straight up and 17-16 against the spread, 10-18 over/under.
No. 3 seeds are 4-6 straight up and 4-6 against the spread, 4-3 over/under.
Texas Tech’s Final Four win makes underdogs 35-27 ATS during the NCAA Tournament. Over/Unders are 29-31 with two pushes.
Texas Tech was 75-1 on the futures board in late February a day before they dismantled Kansas 91-62. The Red Raiders were offered at some sportsbooks at 25-1 to win the National Championship at the start of the NCAA Tournament. Tech was still 23-1 as they began play in the Sweet Sixteen against Michigan, and dropped to 4-1 at the start of the Final Four. The Red Raiders were picked to finish 7th in the preseason Big 12 media poll.
— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) April 7, 2019
Virginia has been among the betting favorites to win the ACC and the Cavaliers odds to win the National Championship were 6-1 at the start of the NCAA Tournament.
While offense more often makes headlines and highlights, it’s refreshing to see two supremely coached teams play with such dedication and discipline on defense. Top-tier coaching makes a major difference, as neither Texas Tech or Virginia get the most highly-sought basketball players out of high school. Both Tony Bennett and now Chris Beard have earned National Coach of the Year honors, and they were recently ranked as the No. 1 and No. 3 best college basketball coaching hires this decade.
Virginia has become a perennial power in the ACC. Bennett was hired in 2009, and the Cavaliers have annually been among the elite defensive teams in the country. This year is no different, as Virginia ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG) and No. 5 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, which estimates how many points a defense would allow against an average team over 100 possessions. The Cavaliers are 88-19 in the ACC since the start of the 2013-14 season, and Bennett was awarded ACC Coach of the Year for the second straight season.
Texas Tech holds the distinction of the nations No. 1 defensive team according to KenPom, and the Red Raiders efficiency and defensive dominance has been on full display during the NCAA Tournament. How dominant has Texas Tech been this season and in the tournament? Since 2002 when Ken Pomeroy began tracking the stat, the Red Raiders 84.1 adjusted efficiency ranking is the lowest-ever figure in the data set. Now through the regular season and NCAA Tournament, Texas Tech has allowed 58.1 points per game.
While coach Beard gets credit for Texas Tech’s attacking and aggressive defense, he and his players defer much of the success to assistant coach Mark Adams, the teams defensive guru and coordinator. Adams helped Beard at Arkansas Little Rock in their turnaround season in 2015-16, and was a longtime small college coach previously. In one season in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas Little Rock, Beard won 30 games and made the largest year-over-year jump in the history of KenPom. The Trojans went from 288th in adjusted defensive efficiency to 33rd, and won a NCAA Tournament game in 2016 as a No. 12 seed upsetting Purdue. The Boilermakers have made three straight Sweet Sixteen appearances since and were one second from a Final Four berth this year instead of Virginia.
Texas Tech’s “Kill Drill” during practice has developed the Red Raiders into a dedicated and disciplined defense that forces turnovers at an elite rate. Tech’s aggressive on ball and help defense works in unison to defend the middle of the floor, and not necessarily the basket or 3-point line. The revolutionary defensive scheme has helped move Texas Tech into the top-tier of college basketball teams, and coach Beard rewarded as National Coach of the Year.
Former Texas Tech assistant and @Pacers scout Pat Knight told @brentmusburger and @VSiNVinny the story of how his father, Bob Knight, came to hire current Texas Tech Head Coach Chris Beard on #MyGuysintheDesert. Catch the whole interview on https://t.co/GLnt2HZaXW! pic.twitter.com/uvTB12XiXW
Thus, the Red Raiders power rating has also continued to rise to new heights this season and through the NCAA Tournament. As a No. 3 seed, Texas Tech held Buffalo (58), Michigan (44), Gonzaga (69) and Michigan State (51) at least 19 points below their scoring averages. Gonzaga averaged 88.8 points per game during the season, Buffalo 84.8, Michigan State 78.8.
After holding Buffalo to 26 points below their season average, Texas Tech stifled Michigan in a 63-44 Sweet Sixteen shutdown that saw the Wolverines score just 16 first half points and finish 1-for-19 from 3-point range. In the Elite Eight against Gonzaga – the highest scoring team in the country and the team ranked no. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency, Tech limited the Bulldogs to under a point per possession. That marked just the second time all season that the Zags were held to that level. Final score: Texas Tech 75, Gonzaga 69.
In the Final Four, Texas Tech just shut down Michigan State. The Spartans 51 points was their lowest score in 107 games since Nov., 2016. The Spartans won the Big Ten regular season and tournament title and were the Big Ten’s best shooting and highest-scoring team. Final score: Texas Tech 61, Michigan State 51.
Texas Tech made their first ever Elite Eight appearance last season, and now their first ever Final Four this season in coach Beard’s 3rd year in Lubbock. When asked about the national title Beard said, “Why not us?”
While many including myself couldn’t agree more, either Texas Tech or Virginia will be a very deserving champion with a dominant defense leading the way. However, the Red Raiders will provide a bigger payoff for those that took a chance on them while others wondered how good Texas Tech could be at tournament time.
The Red Raiders have answered and rewarded their betting backers with a 5-0 SU/ATS run through the NCAA Tournament. One final victory completes a National Championship season very few predicted.
I’m a professional sports analyst, better known as "FairwayJay." I took my bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and left a real estate career to pursue my
I’m a professional sports analyst, better known as "FairwayJay." I took my bachelor’s degree from the University of Minnesota and left a real estate career to pursue my passions in Las Vegas. I’ve been providing comprehensive and compelling sports and betting information to engage and assist the avid fan for more than 15 years. I’ve authored thousands of articles, and discussed the games on radio and podcast while covering the action and industry from a betting perspective. I enjoy handicapping, writing, researching, reporting and covering the sports, gaming and poker scene from tee-to-green. Coach Vince Lombardi must have been a bettor, as “Winning isn’t everything—it’s the only thing.” Now with the emerging legal sports betting market in the U.S., many millions of American’s can enjoy placing a bet and becoming more engaged in the games. That’s the thrilling and compelling part of the experience. Like getting in the batter’s box or on the tee and taking a swing. I’m here to provide more sports betting and industry coverage, and chip-in information and insight. You can bet on it.
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