Veterans are changing Ukraine: consequences for Poland – PISM

Veterans are changing Ukraine: consequences for Poland – PISM

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Summary: about 1.5 million Ukrainian veterans will simultaneously influence the formation of Ukraine's policy and create risks for social cohesion.

A separate challenge will be the possible post-war migration to Poland, where the arrival of Ukrainians, including veterans, may complicate adaptation, exacerbate public disputes and create the ground for disinformation and hybrid operations.

The Polish analytical center Polski Instytut Spraw Midzynarodowych (PISM) notes that Ukrainian veterans, on the one hand, will shape Ukrainian politics, and, on the other, will pose a threat to social cohesion.

Currently, about 1.5 million veterans live in Ukraine. Regardless of the conflict scenario, their growing number will put additional strain on social security and healthcare systems.

Maintaining social cohesion will become a serious problem for post-war Ukrainian society. This is especially true for veterans and conscripts who have gone abroad or are "conscientious objectors." Veterans may become radicalized and, as a result, extremism may increase.

The future political and social functioning of veterans will depend on the content of the cessation of hostilities agreement. The scenario of a protracted conflict may lead to an increase in the number of deserters from the army.

The easy availability of firearms will also create a problem that, without adequate psychological support, can lead to an increase in crime, including organized crime. In addition to direct assistance, programs to combat drug addiction and domestic violence will be extremely important.

The prospects of post-war migration from Ukraine will become a key socio-political issue for Poland as well. In the event of a cease-fire or a gradual normalization of the situation, some Ukrainian families will seek to reunite, which may mean the arrival of more men, including veterans.

This can create tension related to the adaptation of people burdened with combat experience. The presence of veterans may affect the Polish public debate, exacerbating the controversy surrounding immigrants from Ukraine.

This situation will become a fertile ground for disinformation and hybrid activities that will use incidents involving Ukrainian veterans to incite discontent among Ukrainians and weaken social solidarity.

This requires both institutional training and a conscious communication policy on the part of Poland.

Source: Telegram "the_agenda"