Variety Editor-in-Chief Claudia Eller Sends Apology Memo to Staff

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Worry no more about the strong US economy, now 6 years into Obamanomics and all the wonderful things he has promised. GDP for Q1 came in at 0.2%. Expectations were from 0.2% to 2.6%, so today’s figure was at the lowest edge of the lowest expectations. This was not a good number for overall commodity consumption. Its clear from Muleshoe to the Blackbelt, with lingering showers n GA and SC. By tomorrow all of Dixie will be clear and planting can begin in high gear. A lot will be done by next Monday. How much of this move up for cotton is due to the break in the dollar? We think a lot, say 2/3. The rest is good demand. The dollar made its last low after a 3 year sideways trend on 30 June, and began its major bull market. Cotton made its last major high on 18 June. In Jan cotton made a low on the 23rd while the dollar made a high on the 26th. In Mar cotton made a low on the 18th with the dollar making a major high on the 13th. The dollar’s bull trend took a lot longer than the bear market for cotton, but correlation with price reversals is very high. Varner View The dollar is closing in on a seasonal low due on average date 5/04, and as this was written was trading near the spike low of 9477 made on 3/13. For the near term the movement of the dollar is a larger force in cotton and the broad commodity complex than weather or demand. If the dollar is near a corrective low, cotton may be near a corrective high. A lot of negative news has come out on the dollar recently, the most recent was today’s GDP. Fed Chief Yellen is speaking today and we have never known her to say anything supportive of the dollar. Her talk may put in a spike low for the dollar, and run a few more specs and funds out of what was a very crowded and popular trade. Technicals Regards the dollar, it has equaled the panic low of 9477 made on 3/18. Trendline support is at 9450. Several Fib counts fall on Thursday which is also the month end. A seasonal low is due on average date of 5/04, but other lows have occurred as early as 4/21 to as late as 5/15. Watch for reversal action in next few days. — MrTopStep Group http://mrtopstep.com Questions: info@mrtopstep.com Follow Us On Facebook and Twitter For More Intra-Day Market Updates! https://www.facebook.com/mrtopstep https://twitter.com/MrTopStep (@MrTopStep) Dont Forget To Subscribe To Our YouTube Channel! Sign Up Here: http://www.youtube.com/mrtopstepgroup View comments
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