Understanding Rising Tensions in Syria.

In the last few months tensions have been rising between the different factions

ruling over Syria, in the north east being the US-backed SDF and PKK, north west

HTS and Turkish proxies, south east Bashaarʼs regime forces and al Tanf base

south east.

➡ Firstly the rising tensions between Assad and PKK/SDF

Since the territorial defeat of the Islamic State and the stabilization and isolation of

the rebel movement, Assad and the PKK/SDF have lost common enemies which is

increasingly pushing Assad to restart the offensive and reclaim the rest of Syria,

which is the whole area west of the Euphrates river.

Recently, Assad has hinted to the end of the peace agreement with PKK/SDF,

saying itʼs only a matter of months rather than years, and reclaiming cities like

Raqqah and Hasakah are visibly still goals for the Bashar regime.

Bashar will most likely take the opportunity start a large scale operation along the

Euphrates river to take key cities with the help of Iranian militias already in position

in Deir ez Zor as well as potential logistic support from Russian troops also

stationed in Deir ez Zor.

➡ Secondly tensions between PKK/SDF and the Tribal Army.

Jaysh al Ashaʼir, of the Clan Army which is a coalition of armed Arab and Muslim

clans who want both the Shia/Nusayris Bashar and allies)ʼs downfall as well as

the SDF/PKK, since the recent convention held by the SDF where there was talks

Understanding Rising Tensions in Syria.2about local elections for the North Eastern Syria NES region controlled by the

SDF.

This prompted new protests against the SDF regime in Raqqah, Hasakah, Deir ez

Zor and other cities, with locals fearing the elections would give more chances to

the SDF to be recognized internationally and would further partition the broken

Syria.

Al Hifl, a high figure in the Arab tribal army has met with several shuyukh (clan

leaders) of the local tribes and several gave their support for the cause and called

for mobilization of the young men especially in Raqqah and Deir ez Zor.

The SDF also has imprisonned several figures such as Sheikh Ghayath al-Hadi

and Shaykh “Muhammad Al-Jassem Al-Awwad,ˮ the sheikh of the Al-Bumana clan

in the city of Raqqah, since the outbreak of the tribal revolution against the SDF in

Deir ez-Zor in 2023.

3 young men have been killed by the SDF in a town in Deir ez Zor which led to

their tribes planning another meeting 1st June.

Another protest is to be held the 1st June because of the forced lowering of prices

to only 31 cents the kg of wheat the farmers can sell to the SDF, as well as

blocking the trade to anyone other than the SDF.

All these events and other unmentioned ones show how emboldened the SDF has

become especially since the fall of Baghuz and are using their US support to

abuse the local Muslims especially Arabs, as the SDF leadership is mostly Kurdish

➡ Thirdly Islamic State operations on both PKK/SDF and Assad and Iranian

militias.

Since the new Islamic State campaign started the 4th January 2024, operations

have intensified against PKK/SDF militas in Deir ez Zor and al Hasakah.

A notable operation was the ‘martydomʼ attack on an SDF headquarters in

Shaheel, killing and wounding at least 23 militiamen, since the Islamic State still

holds some ghost authority in Deir ez Zor, it also started distributing leaflets

threatening anyone who supported the SDF as well as religious local figures who

were aligned with the SDF, and ended up killing one of them eastern Deir ez Zor.

The Islamic State still hasnʼt forgotten Baghuz, their last stronghold where the SDF,

along with US-led International Coalition air support, killed at least 3000 women

and children and the rest were abducted to different concentration camps around

north east Syria, the biggest being al Hol which houses at least 50,000 people,

most of them being women and children of IS fighters.

This will lead to an inevitable battle around al Hasakah to to “liberateˮ al Hol which

is referred to as a ticking time bomb because instead of countering the radical

ideas, the children are becoming way more alienated to the SDF who they see as

an occupying force, the children seem to be the next generation of IS fighters.

IS is also increasingly gaining support from the locals because of itʼs cemented

stance against US-backed SDF occupation, they released leaflets informing the

population that they will target any oil tanker heading towards SDF-held areas

starting from the 30th May, they also burned an oil extraction structure north of

Deir ez Zor the next day.

Operations are also multiplying against Iran-backed militias like Liwa al Quds and

on Syrian government soldiers especially in the desert in central Syria, ambushing

the soldiers looking for IS remnants in the desert as well as attacking large

convoys with IEDs, they also targeted several times militiamen collecting truffles

as they do every truffle season to generate money for the militias.

➡ Fourthly protests in Idlib and the possibility of overthrowing Jolani

Understanding Rising Tensions in Syria.4In Idlib, large protests have erupted against the Jolani regime and arbitrary arrests, in one instance more than 90 people were arrested in a single night, including women.

Jolani has been accused of money extortion and holding the rare goods to his

gangs and keeping the population in poverty, as well as torturing detainees and

the “security servicesˮ not being held accountable.

This discontentment from the population is dangerous because it is leading to

radicalization and a possible looming coup that is coming for Jolani by his own

units,

HTS has accused the Islamic State of assassinating Abu Maria al Qahtani, who

was arrested by Jolaniʼs men, this led to a firefight between IS cells and HTS units

the 31st May north west of Idlib.

➡ Fifthly Turkish operations on PKK/SDF and the 30km buffer zone

Turkiye announced in April that their armed forces successfully secured a 30km

buffer zone at the border with Syria and Iraq,and threatened of military action of

the SDF elections take place.

Turkiye has also multiplied operations against PKK terrorists infiltrating into itsʼ

territory using air force and artillery, as well as drone strikes against PKK positions

north of al Hasakah and in Qamishli, several headquarters were evacuated north

east of al Hasakah as well in anticipation of more air strikes.

As other analysts have noted, is that Turkiye still hasnʼt lost its expansionist goals to

take the rest of regional Kurdistan and fully eliminate the Kurdish threat as well as

secure its mainland from PKK incursions.

The local SDF elections planned for the 11th June are seen as a threat to both Turkish and Syrian territorial integrity and will definitely prompt a new offensive against Kurdish positions

t.me/saheliananalyst