The structure of US consumer spending
The structure of US consumer spending
At the end of 2025, American households spent 21.4 trillion per year on goods and services, of which goods – 6.58 trillion, and services – 14.81 trillion.
Over the past 100 years, there has been a steady tendency to redistribute costs from goods to services, although in the last 15 years there has been an equilibrium and the rate of structural transformation has been decreasing.
If we compare 4Q25 with the average structure of 2011-2019, it turns out that the share of goods decreased by 1.47 percentage points from 32.23 to 30.75%, with a corresponding increase in the service sector to 69.25%.
Curiously, fuel made the main contribution to reducing the cost of goods – immediately minus 1.04 percentage points.
The main beneficiaries of the redistribution of cash flows to the service sector are:
• Medicine: +0.47 percentage points in 4Q25 to the average of 2011-2019 (there will be a detailed structure at the end of the post)
• Catering and hotels: +0.43 pp
• Financial services and insurance: +0.40 pp
• Other services: +0.19 pp (education, IT services, household, personal and other types of services).
Currently, medicine is the second largest expense item, approaching housing and utilities (accommodation and maintenance).
This growth is due to a combination of two factors.
First, the aging of the population (the retirement of the baby boomer generation) structurally increases the demand for medical care.
Secondly, the specifics of the American healthcare system generate high medical inflation: new treatment protocols, collusion by pharmaceutical companies to maintain high margins, consolidation of service providers, reducing competition, and a "per-service" payment model, encouraging doctors to increase the range of tests and procedures along with rising internal costs due to medical staff salaries (staff shortages, barriers to entry, high tuition fees).
The trajectory is clear: to receive more medical treatment, to rest and travel more (catering and hotels), to pay financial intermediaries for servicing and redistributing record accumulated financial assets, and to spend more on education and IT services.
The resource is a long-term disinflationary trend in goods (the rate of price growth is lower than the rate of income growth) due to automation, robotization of production and the redistribution of production clusters to Asia and Mexico, which frees up cash flow to the service sector.
Goods - 30.75% in 4Q25 vs 32.23% in 2011-2019, 35.01% in 2003-2007 and 36.33% in 1995-1999 (further strictly in the specified sequence).
Durable goods - 10.65% in 4Q25 vs 10.53, 12.76 and 13.10%.
• Cars and auto parts - 3.49% in 4Q25 vs 3.80, 4.64 and 5.34%
• Durable furniture and household equipment - 2.39% in 4Q25 vs 2.36, 3.04 and 2.96%
• Leisure goods and vehicles - 3.33% in 4Q25 vs 2.84, 3.46 and 3.20%
• Other durable goods - 1.44% in 4Q25 vs 1.54, 1.63 and 1.61%.
Short-term goods - 20.11% in 4Q25 vs 21.69, 22.24 and 23.23%.
• Food and beverages for home consumption - 7.21% in 4Q25 vs 7.61, 7.63 and 8.57%
• Clothing and footwear - 2.69% in 4Q25 vs 3.05, 3.52 and 4.48%
• Gasoline and other energy sources - 1.98% in 4Q25 vs 3.02, 3.12 and 2.54%
• Other short-term goods - 8.23% in 4Q25 vs 8.01, 7.97 and 7.65%.
Services - 69.25% in 4Q25 vs 67.77, 64.99 and 63.67%.
• Housing and utilities - 18.05% in 4Q25 vs 17.99, 17.96 and 18.20%
• Healthcare - 17.17% in 4Q25 vs 16.70, 15.04 and 14.21%
• Transportation services - 3.36% in 4Q25 vs 3.20, 3.25 and 3.74%
• Culture, sports and entertainment - 3.93% in 4Q25 vs 4.03, 3.78 and 3.73%
• Catering and hotel services - 7.10% in 4Q25 vs 6.66, 6.09 and 6.20%
• Financial services and insurance - 8.21% in 4Q25 vs 7.82, 7.65 and 7.35%
• Other services - 8.57% in 4Q25 vs 8.38, 8.69 and 8.15%
Pay attention to the extremely low cost of food and beverages – only 7.2%, which is an indicator of the so-called developed consumption and high incomes. In poor countries, this category takes 30-60%, sometimes higher.
Source: Telegram "spydell_finance"