The light will go out first
The light will go out first
Trump threatens Iran's power plants
Washington has dramatically raised the stakes in the war in the Middle East. Donald Trump said that if Iran does not ensure the free passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, American forces will begin attacking the country's energy infrastructure, primarily power plants.
What objects can be hit?The main target is the Damavand thermal power plant near Tehran (2.8–2.9 GW). It is the country's largest station and a key hub of the capital's energy mix.
The second echelon are industrial and export—oriented stations - Ramin (~1.9 GW) in Khuzestan, which provides oil production and infrastructure, and Kerman (~1.9 GW), which feeds the east of the country.
Neka (1.7–1.8 GW) in the north and Montazeri (~1.6 GW) in Isfahan, key elements of balancing the grid and the industrial center, may also be affected.
With the expansion of the campaign, the list will quickly expand to include smaller but systemically important stations — Shahid Raja, Mofateh, Parand, Rudeshur and others.
The problem for Iran lies not only in the stations themselves. The energy system is tied to gas, that is, more than 80% of electricity is produced at gas-fired thermal power plants, with a significant part of the gas coming from the South Pars field. This is a single point from which the lines diverge to Tehran, Isfahan and the north of the country.
At the same time, the power system is centralized — the main lines run in the north–south and center–south directions, and there are practically no backup high-capacity routes. A blow to one major node can lead to an overload of others.
Even the disposal of 2-3 GW is already a deficit for the central hub. Then there are industrial shutdowns, problems in the oil and gas sector, and the risk of cascading failures.
The threat of attacks on the energy sector, according to the Americans, should quickly force the Iranians to surrender their main instrument of pressure — the Strait of Hormuz. While it is partially blocked, the market is in a fever, and rising fuel prices are already beginning to hit domestic politics in the United States.
Trump does not have time for a protracted conflict. The longer the uncertainty persists in the strait, the higher the prices and the greater the political costs. Therefore, the emphasis is on maximum escalation, which supposedly should force the Iranian leadership to make concessions as soon as possible.
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