The latest on the coronavirus pandemic and vaccines

On Jan. 31, the United States

declared Coronavirus a Public Health Emergency

issued 14 days quarantine rules for US citizens entering the US from China (mandatory if entering from the Hubei province).

issued an order to deny entry to foreigners who have traveled to China within the past two weeks.

On January 30, the novel coronavirus total case count surpassed that for SARS (which affected 8,096 people worldwide).

On January 30, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a Global Public Health Emergency.

On January 30 CDC confirmed the first US case of human to human transmission[17].

Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the United States have reported cases in patients who didn't personally visit China, but contracted the virus from someone else who had visited Wuhan, China[15]. These cases of human to human transmission are the most worrisome, according to the WHO[16].

Wuhan (the city where the virus originated) is the largest city in Central China, with a population of over 11 million people. The city, on January 23, shut down transport links. Following Wuhan lock down, the city of Huanggang was also placed in quarantine, and the city of Ezhou closed its train stations. This means than 18 million people have been placed in isolation. The World Health Organization (WHO) said cutting off a city as large as Wuhan is "unprecedented in public health history."[12] and praised China for its incredible commitment to isolate the virus and minimize the spread to other countries.

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How dangerous is the virus?

There are three parameters to understand in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:

Transmission Rate (Ro) - number of newly infected people from a single case

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - percent of cases that result in death

Determine whether asymptomatic transmission is possible

How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)

The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.

WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]

Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].

Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]

An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.

For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.

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Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus

See full details: Coronavirus Fatality Rate

The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January 29, 2020 [16] . However, it noted that, without knowing how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the mortality rate figure.

A prior estimate [9] had put that number at 3%.

Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.

For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.

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Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)

See full details: COVID-19 Coronavirus Incubation Period

Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14 days, see details), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).

Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases

 See latest findings: Age, Sex, Demographics of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

According to early estimates by China's National Health Commission (NHC), about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.[24]

According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7 issued on Jan. 27: