The five most important statistics in college football

Sometimes the most innovative ideas are also the simplest. Dean Oliver first introduced the concept of discussing four factors that determine winning basketball games almost 10 years ago. Oliver has developed many interesting measures over the years. This was true both before and after he became the head of ESPN’s sports analytics team. But his most memorable idea wasn't a measure.

Football is an extremely complicated sport due to its sheer number. Basketball has 10 players on the court. Baseball's maximum is 13. Football, like soccer has 22. Football players, unlike soccer, follow different rules. These guys can touch the ball on downfield. If the quarterback is still going to throw, these guys can't move past the line. It doesn't matter if the holder has his knees on the ground. Here are some guys who are 5'10 and 180. Here, 6'3, 215 Over there, 6'6, 315. Theoretically, it's unlikely that a complex game could be reduced to its essence within a few steps.

However, you'd be mistaken. Since years, I've been promoting this idea of "reducing everything to its essence." In 2010, I wrote "Four Truths," one of my favorites Varsity Numbers articles, in which I discussed fast starts, large plays, passing downs and field position. All of those things are important.

Over time, I've realized that sports is essentially about five things. Of these, you can control four. You win by making more big plays, staying on schedule, tilting the field, finishing drives and falling on the ball. Football games are won by a combination of explosiveness, efficiency, field positioning, finishing drives and turnovers.

You will win 83 per cent of the time if you win the battle for efficacy (using the Success Rate).

You will win 72 percent of all battles if you are able to win the average starting position BOLAFT.

These are great odds. These odds are good and they reflect the basics of football. When you have the ball, you want to make sure you are efficient, as if you get behind schedule, and you end up in passing downs, it's much more difficult to make a great play. You want to gain a lot of yards with big plays because they mean more points and less chances to make mistakes. You want to score when you have the chance. When you pass the ball to your opponent, it is important that they go as far as they can.