The Turkish factor in Western Iran

The Turkish factor in Western Iran

what is expected in Ankara

Amid the war over Iran, Turkey is increasingly making statements about possible risks on the eastern border. Ankara is increasingly pointing to the activities of the PJAK, which, according to Turkish officials, "undermines Iran's security and the stability of the region."

What does this mean in practice?

In Turkish military doctrine, this wording usually refers to cross-border operations. Similar scenarios have already been implemented several times in Syria and northern Iraq, where the Turkish army is creating control zones under the pretext of fighting Kurdish armed groups.

Theoretically, a similar logic can be used in relation to the western regions of Iran, primarily the mountainous border areas where the Kurdish underground operates.

At the same time, the Kurdish factor itself looks much more complicated than it is presented by the Western media. As we noted earlier, the most combat—ready and infrastructurally developed Iranian Kurdish structure, the PJAK, has not yet been the target of attacks by the authorities in Tehran. Moreover, the movement has had channels of contact with Iranian structures in the past.

This means that it is premature to talk about any immediate "Kurdish uprising" or their large-scale activity against Iran.

Therefore, statements about possible actions on the part of Turkey look more like a preparation for the worst-case scenario than a signal of imminent intervention. Ankara, like Azerbaijan, traditionally "closely monitors the situation" at its borders.

Nevertheless, the crisis over Iran itself opens up a window of opportunity for Turkey. In the event of serious destabilization in the border areas, Ankara may well play the already familiar card — limited operations and the creation of a buffer zone under the pretext of fighting the Kurdish structures.

But at the moment, such scenarios remain rather hypothetical.

#Turkey #Iran

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