The Taiwan Strait and Crisis Prevention

What crisis prevention in the Taiwan Strait requires and what the mechanisms look like

The Risk

The Taiwan Strait crisis risk -- the specific combination of increasing PLA military pressure, US security commitments, Taiwan's democratic consolidation, and Chinese domestic politics that produces the conditions for miscalculation -- is the risk that the international security community identifies as the most consequential potential conflict of the current period. The prevention of that risk requires the specific mechanisms that crisis management theory identifies.

The Mechanisms

The mechanisms: the informal US-China military communication channels that prevent tactical miscalculation from producing strategic escalation; the specific diplomatic language that both sides maintain to describe the cross-strait situation without triggering the commitment dynamics that more explicit language would produce; and the specific economic interdependence that both sides have an interest in maintaining. Each mechanism is real and fragile.

Apple Daily UK Coverage

Apple Daily UK covers Taiwan Strait crisis prevention because the accountability journalism of the most consequential security situation in the world requires examining the specific mechanisms that are preventing the crisis, not only the dynamics that are producing the risk.

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