The Schlep Monopoly

Let me start with a simple observation: what ASML does isn’t as hard as it looks. Now, don’t misunderstand me—crafting machines that carve circuits finer than a human hair onto silicon wafers is no trivial feat. It takes precision, ingenuity, and a lot of clever engineering. But inventing new physics? That’s not what’s happening here. The real magic isn’t in the tech itself—it’s in the gatekeeping. ASML sits atop an industry stitched together with secrecy, NDAs, and a lineage of pioneers who tucked the know-how behind a velvet curtain. Picture Google refusing to publish the "Attention is All You Need" paper, binding their researchers with gag orders, and leaving the world to marvel at their mysterious AI prowess. That’s ASML’s game. Chip-making isn’t some impenetrable enigma; it’s just that most people don’t even realize they could take a swing at it.

Here’s a question: how many startups try to challenge ASML and flop each year? Zero. Not a single one. Why? It’s not because the task is impossible—it’s because no one’s trying. The state’s been tangled up in this from the beginning, propping up the giants and snuffing out the scrappy, e/acc-style energy that’s turned AI into a playground for tinkerers. There’s a term Paul Graham coined in one of his essays that fits this perfectly: *schlep blindness*. It’s when a problem seems so daunting, so loaded with tedious, unglamorous work, that people don’t even see it as a problem worth solving. ASML’s trillion-dollar monopoly thrives on schlep blindness—everyone assumes building chip machines is too big, too messy, too *schleppy* to tackle. But what if it’s not?

Here’s where it gets fun: I think this is the ripest industry for a startup to disrupt. Yes, you heard me right. The doubters will chime in, “Oh, but the physics! The chemistry! Those hulking, intricate machines!” Fair enough. If I were sitting on a monopoly worth billions, I’d parade my gleaming labs and towering equipment too, letting the world ooh and aah at how “complex” it all is. It’s a brilliant ruse—gatekeeping masquerading as genius. But here’s a little secret: more often than not, the best solution isn’t the flashiest or the priciest—it’s the cheapest and simplest. ASML’s got a tangle of complicated machines strung together like a Rube Goldberg contraption, and that’s their Achilles’ heel. They’re wide open to be outdone by something elegant, something lean. We’re taught from school not to question these monoliths, to accept that some things are just too hard for mere mortals. But are they?

Think of an Arduino. To us, it’s “simple”—not because it’s inherently basic (it’s still a marvel of engineering), but because it’s laid bare: documented, reducible, handed over to anyone with a soldering iron and a curiosity itch. ASML’s tech isn’t so different at its core; it’s just cloaked in shadows. So here’s my dream: an Arduino for chip manufacturing. Open-source it. Unleash the hackers. Imagine a world where the tools to make chips can be owned by anyone.

Need a model? Look at SpaceX. Before Elon Musk and his team rolled in, sending a payload to orbit cost a jaw-dropping $18,000 per kilogram—NASA and the old aerospace guard had no reason to rethink their bloated ways. SpaceX didn’t just nibble at the edges; they built the Falcon 9 with reusable boosters, landing them back on Earth like something out of a sci-fi flick. Result? Costs plummeted to $2,700 per kilogram. That’s not incremental improvement—that’s a gut punch to complacency, born of fresh eyes and fearless innovation. If a startup gathered a band of hackers, gave them the resources, and pointed them at ASML, I’d bet they could pull off something just as seismic—something simpler, cheaper, and downright elegant.

Now, those ASML machines? They’re $200 million each because ASML’s the only player on the field. I’m not saying they should throw open their blueprints and start a global seminar on lithography. That’s not the point. We’re in a free market, folks—it’s time for someone to step into the ring and throw a real punch. Schlep blindness has kept the challengers at bay, but it doesn’t have to. ASML’s clunky, overbuilt empire is begging for an elegant solution to sweep in and show how it’s done.

This isn’t some wild-eyed fantasy about gravity-defying tech. It’s physics—textbook stuff, the kind hackers have been unraveling for decades. They’re the ones who’ll crack this open, who’ll make phones and computers cheaper, who’ll tear down the paywalls of overpriced gear. SpaceX slashed launch costs by a factor of ten. Why not chip machines? I’d love to see them drop from $200 million to $200,000. It’s not impossible—it’s just unseen. And that’s the beauty of it: the future’s there for whoever shakes off the schlep blindness, sees past the mess of complicated machines, and builds something beautifully simple instead.