The Russians are increasingly pressing along the entire front, but not very successfully. They are also preparing for air operations. Analysis of the situation on the 360th day of the full-scale invasion

The Russian army has switched from defense to offense along the entire eastern front

The occupiers are attacking near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region and along the entire front line in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. This can be called the large-scale Russian offensive that both Ukraine and the West have been warning about. But so far it has not brought any success. The occupiers are advancing in almost all directions, but very slowly and are losing a lot of infantry and armored vehicles - thousands of soldiers every day and dozens of tanks and combat vehicles.

The Russians launched the announced full-scale offensive. While they were waiting for it, social media was widely spreading reports that the occupiers would break through the fronts in all directions, invade across the borders in the north, and raid tens of kilometers into the country. But they simply switched from defense to attack along the entire eastern front. The General Staff of the Armed Forces has been reporting for several days that the Russians are advancing in five directions: Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Novopavlivka (Vuhledar). They are defending only two of them: Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The latter is unpromising, as it is almost impossible to force the Dnipro River. It is unclear whether the Russians will start an offensive in Zaporizhzhia region, and if so, to what extent.

The fact that the Russians have launched their "big offensive" is indirectly evidenced by the data of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on their losses. The number of occupants killed reaches a thousand per day, and now they are also losing dozens of armored vehicles every day. So, the Russians have sent more forces into the battle and are suffering even greater losses. Since the beginning of the year, the occupiers have already lost more than 35,000 soldiers in action, and 105,000 in 2022.

On February 10, the Russians again attacked Ukraine with missiles, firing 71 missiles, 61 of which were shot down by air defense forces

They also traditionally launched Iranian kamikaze drones the night before and the evening after the attack. The occupiers are trying to reconnoiter the positions of Ukrainian air defense or overload it and destroy the energy infrastructure. But with each strike, the effectiveness is decreasing. On February 12, they stopped cutting off electricity in Ukraine: "Ukrenergo" does not set consumption limits . Power is turned off only where electricity cannot be physically supplied because lines or substations are damaged.

During this strike, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valeriy Zaluzhny, said that two Russian missiles entered Romanian airspace. The Air Force also confirmed that they had seen a Russian missile on their radar. The Russian missile violated Romanian airspace. Romania is a NATO member, and therefore the missile's flight over it can be considered an attack on the Alliance. But the local Defense Ministry did not confirm this. and noted that the missile came within 35 kilometers of the border in the northeast.

After the missile strike, the Russians began to deplete Ukrainian air defense in another way

They launch balloons with metal polyhedrons attached to them into the territory of Ukraine. They reflect radar waves and are highlighted on air defense radars. The Ukrainian army has to spend effort to check for such objects and shoot them down, because this is how the Russians can conduct reconnaissance - ordinary cameras can be attached to balloons, for example.

On February 14, The Financial Times reported, citing Western intelligence, that Russia is deploying combat aircraft to Ukraine's borders

It is intended to support an attempted new offensive. The West expects that the Russians are preparing for a large-scale air campaign. This was also confirmed by sources in the Russian Defense Ministry to the Russian publication Vazhnye Istoriyi. At the beginning of the invasion, the Russians failed to seize control of Ukrainian skies and lost more than 200 airplanes and helicopters. Since then, Russian aviation has hardly flown behind the front line, as there is a high probability that an aircraft will be shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces.

There are huge doubts that the campaign will be successful

Since February 24, 2022, when the Russians failed to do so, Ukrainian air defense has gained a lot of experience and received various defense systems. The occupiers had been hitting civilian infrastructure for a year, so the West made it a priority to saturate Ukrainian air defense. The Ukrainian army has received many Soviet air defense systems and Western man-portable air defense systems, as well as modern systems such as Gepard, NASAMS, and IRIS-T. SAMP-T and Patriot systems are due to arrive in Ukraine in the near future. It is highly likely that the Russian army will suffer very heavy losses. Airplanes are one of the most expensive types of military equipment, and pilots are among the most valuable personnel in any army, and they take a long time and are difficult to train.

It seems that Russia has begun to get rid of the influence of the Wagner PMC and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the war

Russian cadres are increasingly appearing in the areas where Wagner's men operated. In addition, Prigozhin can no longer recruit prisoners. Western media reported that the Russian Defense Ministry is now doing this directly, and Prigozhin confirmed this. Russian organizations that defend the rights of prisoners say: "Wagner's PMC was recruiting, i.e., taking those who wanted to, and the Russian Defense Ministry is taking them to war by force." Perhaps in this way, the Kremlin wants to partially replace mobilization so as not to face public discontent again.

"The Wagnerites" began to actively complain about the lack of supplies. Prigozhin says that they "will be able to take Bakhmut in March-April" because "military bureaucracy" does not allow them to receive the necessary supplies. In one of the videos, the Wagnerites allegedly say that they have been completely cut off from ammunition supplies.

In Kharkiv region, the front line has not changed

Russians still control a very small area in the northeast, near the Russian-Ukrainian border. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been reporting for several days in a row that the occupiers are trying to advance near the village of Hryanykivka. These appear to be diversionary strikes or attempts to get as close as possible to the city of Kupyansk, an important logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. The local bridges over the Oskil River allow for faster and more efficient transfer of reserves.

In the Luhansk region, Russians continue to press along the entire front line

They are most actively trying to advance near the villages of Nevske and Makiivka, but have not yet succeeded.

In the area of Kreminna, the occupants are trying to attack and push the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces away from the city every day. They are advancing in the area of Dibrova village and Serebryanske forestry south of Kreminna. Some of their advanced units have reached the villages of Yampolivka and Torske in Donetsk region. They are located on the Zherebets River, which is most likely the line where the Russians want to reach before advancing on the city of Lyman.

On the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, the administrative boundary between Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Russians continue to put pressure on the village of Bilohorivka and the villages of Verkhnekamianske and Spirne. They are important for Ukrainian defense because they cover the flank of the military holding back the Russians behind Soledar and prevent them from reaching Siversk quickly and simultaneously from several directions.

Beyond Soledar, the Russians were making progress on three fronts at once

But their movement northward toward Siversk has been stopped. The Ukrainian army is holding the line at the villages of Fedorivka, Rozdolivka and Vesele.

The occupiers have achieved the greatest success in the west. They moved toward the village of Zaliznyanske, but then changed direction and reached the Bakhmut-Slaviansk highway. Ukrainian troops are holding the Russians along the road and preventing them from crossing. But it is no longer possible to use it to supply Bakhmut.

To the south, fierce fighting continues near the village of Krasna Hora and the village of Paraskoviivka. The Russians claimed to have captured Krasna Hora, which the Ukrainian army denied. But Russian Telegram channels published photos of the occupiers from different parts of the village. So either the Russians still control almost the entire village, or they were partially driven out of it. The first photos of Russians from Paraskoviivka have also started to appear, but so far only from the northern part.

If the Ukrainian military loses these two settlements, the Russians will move on to the next village, Berkhivka. Some dirt roads to Bakhmut pass through it, which also partially supply the garrison. Defending the city will become even more difficult

In Bakhmut itself, the Russians are also trying to advance, but are not having much success

On February 13, civilians and volunteers were banned from entering the city. The official reason is that Russian subversive groups have infiltrated the western part. But this may also indicate that the Ukrainian army will regroup there. For example, it will retreat across the Bakhmutka River to the western part of the city.

To the southwest of Bakhmut, the Ukrainian military seems to have successfully counterattacked and pushed the Russians back a bit from the Bakhmut-Konstantinovka highway. It still cannot be fully utilized because Russian positions are quite close. However, this counterattack has made another road to the city safer, namely the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road.

The Russians have also intensified their activities in other areas of Donetsk region.

In the Avdiivka area, they are trying to advance on the village of Krasnohorivka, north of the city, but have not yet succeeded. As well as in the south, where the occupants want to get closer to the city from the villages of Vodiane and Opytne.

Fierce fighting continues in the city of Maryinka, although it has been almost destroyed. The Russians still cannot break through the center and are trying to bypass Maryinka from the north and south.

In the area of Vuhledar, where a large-scale Russian offensive has failed resoundingly, the situation has hardly changed over the past 10 days. The occupiers have lost a lot of infantry and equipment and are unable to resume serious attacks.

In Zaporizhzhia region, the front line remains unchanged.

In January, the Russians tried to attack in several directions simultaneously, but were unsuccessful. They went back and since then have been attacking only pointwise to capture a few positions or control the "gray" zone.

In Kherson region, the frontline has not changed either

It has stabilized along the Dnipro River. Ukraine and Russia continue sabotage raids on the opposite bank and on the islands.

On February 14, the ninth meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine's Defense in the Ramstein format took place in Brussels

It was expected that a decision on the transfer of combat aircraft to Ukraine could be made, but there was no breakthrough. Some countries only confirmed their previous promises. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin noted that eight countries had agreed to supply Ukraine with German-made Leopard tanks. . These are Germany, Poland, Canada, Portugal, Spain, Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands. The US and Poland will supply the Ukrainian army with Abrams and PT-91 tanks. The meeting also discussed how to increase ammunition production.

During a visit to Kyiv on February 15, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson confirmed that his country would provide Ukraine with Archer self-propelled artillery systems, but did not name the number. The Swedes have only 48 of them. In addition to the self-propelled artillery systems, Sweden will provide Ukraine with about 50 CV90 infantry fighting vehicles.

On February 16, the Norwegian Parliament approved a multi-year large-scale program to support Ukraine. It will allocate about 75 billion Norwegian kroner (almost €7 billion). The program will last for five years, meaning that Norway will allocate NOK 15 billion (€1.3 billion) annually to Ukraine. In 2023, half of these payments will go to military aid.

The French publication Forces Operations, citing its own sources, reported that France has already sent the promised AMX-10RC light tanks to Ukraine

The first batch will include 14 vehicles, and the Ukrainian military has already learned how to use them. The AMX rides on wheels, not tracks, and has very little armor, so it is not a full-fledged tank. But the vehicle has a turret with a 105-mm cannon typical of tanks. Therefore, the Ukrainian army is likely to use AMXs as very powerful infantry fighting vehicles.

Sources: https://babel.ua, https://deepstatemap.live/en

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